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HarleyQuinn

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Been having a lot of fun doing the weekly e-mail newsletters for Brad. This week, I managed to make references to buying a hammer for its brand name & marveled at the lack of genuine scarcity of the Luka Prizm Silver and a Bowman Chrome Draft Auto of Aaron Judge. He'll be sending the newsletter out tomorrow probably but I love trying to educate the readers and even myself as I assumed the Judge Autos had a pop of like 400 (via BGS) and it turns out there are like 1,200 submissions alone and nearly 900 BGS 9.5s! That's ignoring PSA and SGC too.
 

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Snagged this courtesy of off Ebay for $14.05 via COMC Consignment. BGS 8.5 of 1994-95 Paul Kariya SP Premier. '94-95 is when Kariya's cards start showing him in the actual Mighty Ducks unis. This card was cheaper and had better subgrades, IMO, than the other one that was being offered for $3 more. 10 Centering + 2 9s for an 8.5? I'll take that every day. I've found that corners are the area I don't care as much about while placing emphasis on the centering.

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I almost never buy or bid on their stuff for that reason. It sucks because they have so much cool stuff. But they just don't seem able to get it shipped in under 2 months.
 

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I almost never buy or bid on their stuff for that reason. It sucks because they have so much cool stuff. But they just don't seem able to get it shipped in under 2 months.
Yeah, I stopped using COMC's actual site after they took forever to ship my Drew Brees and Wes Welker cards way back when (to the point I had forgotten which Brees cards I had even purchased). They have the Kariya card as estimated delivery in 2 weeks so I'm not holding my breath and it's not like I have to have this card in my possession ASAP. I just couldn't pass up on the subgrades or price point though.
 

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This'll be a long post but these are the "typed up" notes I've done from Ben Graham/Warren Buffett relating my Value Investing concept to sports cards (I just picked up several serial numbered Tom Brady cards including a couple /250).

Value Investing Notes Relating to Sports Cards (Ben Graham & Warren Buffett)


Ben Graham

  • This is primarily a long-term process. Think 10, 15, 25 years down the road. Some of these concepts can be utilized for the short-term markets but they rely on a lot of luck especially in picking the right player to pop off. Compare the guy who picked up a 1955 Sandy Koufax 20 years ago selling in 2021 to the guy trying to sell his 1998 Kerry Wood in 2001. Short-term maybe the Kerry Wood guy had success but long term, the Koufax owner easily wins.
  • Take advantage of down windows and rising highs. Buy when most people are pessimistic, sell when most people are optimistic.

    • A diversified holding of sports cards over a stretch of years will prove more profitable so long as the cards are purchased at a reasonable market rate.
    • When the market declines (Bear Market) or advances (Bull Market) substantially, nearly all investors will see similar changes in their sports card portfolios.
    • Beating the market is speculative. Timing is of greater psychological importance to the speculator/quick flipper because they want to make their profit in a hurry. See the correlation in trying to grade a card of ‘Player X’ to sell him/her at the start of the sports season.
    • True practitioners of the “Buy Low, Sell High” concept must be comfortable buying too soon and selling too soon. If you made a 3X profit on Tyler Herro and it ends up at 8X, so be it. You still made a solid profit as opposed to taking a loss if/when that card inevitably comes back down or worse, outright tanks and you’re forced to sell at a loss.
    • Cards should be purchased at a bargain price or not at all. In March & April of 2020, a 2003 Topps PSA 10 of Carmelo Anthony was selling for $60-80 and by July it was $170. Almost 1 year later, it went up to $800. By July & August of 2021, it had come back down to $270-$280. Don’t be the guy spending $600-$800 on Bol Bol Silvers thinking it’s just going to keep going up, only to see it crash to $112 a year later.
    • Never let a lower price scare away from buying a card. The market is slow to recognize things. Let the market catch up to the actual value of that card (see the shifts towards vintage then serial numbered cards as the market smartened up to the overvaluation of base cards). A 1986 Topps Traded PSA 10 Barry Bonds went from $632 on 4/19/21 to $333 on 8/20/21, just 4 months later. Bonds is a baseball icon. Just because the market is determining the value/price to be less should not scare you away from making smart investments.
    • The outstanding characteristic of the sports card market is its tendency to react excessively to favorable (hot game/season/trade/signing) and unfavorable (injury/bad season/benched) situations. The volatility of a card is your best friend because it represents bargain price opportunities to take advantage of. A card that has sold for $400 in a flat line for 8 months is safe but a poor value buy. A card that has sold between $50 and $400 for 8 months represents a greater value investment as you can buy it at $50 and unload it at a likely higher price point later.

Warren Buffett

  • “It’s a huge structural advantage to not have a lot of money”. You can generate a higher rate of return with greater value on lower priced cards. A 1986 Fleer PSA 9 Michael Jordan went from $62,000 in 02/2021 to $21,000 in 08/2021. To get just a 5% return, that initial buyer will have to sell their Jordan card for $65,100 assuming the sports card market does not tank over the next 5-10 years and hoping the card rebounds from that $21,000 price point. Just 1 month later and the card has rebounded to $28,500.
  • “Our investments will be chosen on the basis of value, not popularity.” A 1984 Topps PSA 9 of Dan Marino is currently selling for $300 to $400. Compare that to a Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Mosaic Blue /99 PSA 10 which sold for $303. Odds are greater that the Dan Marino card will retain its value long term compared to Tua’s card.
  • Focus on finding the right players at the right prices. Again, this all goes back to the price point being the deciding factor. I just shared a 2020 National Treasures /99 card of Julian Edelman on my IG that I got around $8 raw. At $20 to $30, however, that would not have been a good value investment on my end as it would have been overpriced despite Edelman being a potential HOFer down the road.
  • “…But the accuracy of our analysis of the company (sports player) will largely determine whether we are right.” I will gladly take a numbered card of Aaron Rodgers /50 even if it’s a 10th year card because I trust in his long-term legacy (3X MVP, 1 Super Bowl) over a rookie card of Joe Burrow /99 in the hopes that Joe Burrow comes even close to what Rodgers has done. I’ll let others do the speculating and take on those risks. I’m not afraid to speculate in some cases if I really like the player e.g. Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Kyler Murray but the “right player at the right price” mantra always comes into play with them.
  • “My own thinking is much more geared to five-year performance…” The long-term matters here. Even a few years into a player’s career, it can be hard to anticipate how their career will end up. RB Shaun Alexander looked like a lock for the HOF after winning the 2005 NFL MVP then he completely fell off a cliff. The NBA is littered with players who had very good seasons and then struggled due to injuries.
  • “Buy wonderful businesses (players) at fair prices.” Again, it all goes right back to the price factor. I can pick up a PSA 10 2005 Aaron Rodgers Bazooka rookie card for $300. A BGS 9 2006 Kevin Durant Finest #’d to 539 sold for $455 on 5/19/21. Those two players are proven iconic superstars in their respective sport with very fair prices IMO.
  • “The issues (player’s card) lack glamour or market sponsorship. Their main qualification is a bargain price…” A lot of times specific rookie cards get massively pumped up by certain influencers and so all the focus goes there (also see the explosion in base card pumping). The best tactic is to ignore the crowd looking at the $800 card on the wall and find that $100 card in the corner that nobody else has noticed yet then wait for the attention to come around to that $100 card. I picked up a Peyton Manning Insert a while ago from 2000 numbered out of 4135 for $12 while people were spending $3,000+ for his 1998 Topps Chrome PSA 10 rookie card. Currently, the pop counts of PSA 10 & 9 of that card total 5231.
  • Margin of Safety is a golden rule for Buffett: “We believe this margin-of-safety principle to be the cornerstone of investment success” … It merely guarantees that the probabilities are against loss. In the case of a sports card, that the probabilities favor an ultimate profit. My tactic when buying cards is primarily centered on scarcity + player’s name. I’ll take a 2017 Larry Bird /199 any day of the week (at the right price) over a 2017 Devin Booker /99 or 2017 Klay Thompson /99. Those two tactics are my ‘Margin of Safety’ to try and push the probabilities of profit in my favor. I have cards where I have likely lost money, but I try my best to limit that overall loss/risk as much as possible.
 

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The above post is true.

Also: T206s are still popular. Posted 2 on ebay today. 1 sold in minutes for a fair offer, other already got a bid. Received so many messages if I had any more & kept replying "I have a Mathewson but haven't decided yet..." that I had to post it as a BIN/OBO and see what happens.
 

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Emailed GMA grading customer service to see if they'd slab some 1970s Stooges stickers I've mentioned previously. I was told they only do "licensed" items. I responded to confirm they are licensed, but it was on a Friday. While waiting, I googled "cheap grading" and went 11 pages deep, just looking for anyone that'll slab these things for display and flood protection purposes.

Companies I have never heard of prior to the google search are at $20-30 for their lowest tier grading. I found companies in middle of no where Idaho and Minnesota with random descriptive words and then "grading." So, unless I can convince GMA to slab them at $10/per my next best option is going to be the HGA no grade slab at $15/per.

This hurricane bullshit has revived my psychotic need to protect EVERYTHING and PSA/BGS being cost prohibitive is KILLING my vibe. Only being able to submit 4-5 cards per month to SGC isn't flying either (my monthly grading budget is $120 after shipping) and I'm not sending my registry stuff to CSG.

I did take the time to separate my "to be graded" orders. Since Facebook group guy handles BGS, PSA, and CSG I would send him two orders per box, one to each of BGS/CSG until the price hike. I still had my queue full of envelopes ready to go for both companies. So now all CSG is in one box and BGS is in another. Still have a few after market autos that I need to send. Sr found a Morten Andersen autographed 8x10 at an estate sale personalized to someone with my first name and I guess that guy's wife, Ronda (not Rousey :( ). I thought about trying to remove "& Ronda" but I think I'll leave it as is at let my niece's mind wander when she has to go through my assets in a few years.

Facebook guy has two CSG orders from April coming back so those are starting to pop with a better frequency. Still have outstanding July 2020 BGS orders.

My other guy is on the DL getting some of my stuff subbed under his account, under the pretext that they're his cards to get his price, don't talk about it where anyone with the company will see, like two at a time but its movement

I have my entire August and September scans to upload to my sports card instagram, just been busy with work and school in post Ida Gulf Coast.
 

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That's one of the many reasons why the grading craze annoys me and has sometimes deterred real, committed collectors. I get why those companies have had to change so much; it's impossible to not have problems or make changes when millions of cards are coming in all the time. I just wish that, instead of ten million people sending in 2020 prizms, there'd be enough room for everybody and that hobbyists could get their stuff slabbed/protected. Instead of waiting a year while the quarter billion Zions take priority.
 

HarleyQuinn

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That's one of the many reasons why the grading craze annoys me and has sometimes deterred real, committed collectors. I get why those companies have had to change so much; it's impossible to not have problems or make changes when millions of cards are coming in all the time. I just wish that, instead of ten million people sending in 2020 prizms, there'd be enough room for everybody and that hobbyists could get their stuff slabbed/protected. Instead of waiting a year while the quarter billion Zions take priority.
I hate to say this but I kind of have enjoyed seeing the flood of slabs bite some people in the ass (just saw a dude posted an HGA grading video where he had submitted all of those late 80s Fleer cards of guys like Steve Kerr, Scottie Pippen, etc. and gotten 8/8.5s for the majority due to surface) and it's like these people clearly don't understand sports cards themselves especially in chasing the 10s. Your shitty early 80s and late 80s cards aren't gonna fucking 10 like today's ultra-modern stuff. God forbid they get 9s *gasp* and I can't wait for the price point of 9s to start tanking harder as people panic and escape the hobby trying to just break even and not go broke.

A smart collector knows if their card is an 8, 9, or a 10. They don't need Joe Grader to tell them for $200. The short-term flippers have really upended the market in terms of slabs being about the grade and not about slabbing/protection like @SFH is talking about. They also don't understand the grading when, like BGS, a card can only be 0.5 higher than its lowest subgrade. I've started looking more at 8s-9s of BGS that have fantastic subgrades but by virtue of having that 8 Corners or 8.5 Surface subgrade, the card's overall grade is low.

It also amazes me the premium these people put on the grades compared to raw, especially when they try to argue pop counts matter only for certain cards to literally fly in the face of that argument.
Luka Doncic 2018 Base Prizm PSA 10 (nearing 19,000!!!!!) = $777.50 on 10/3
Luka Doncic 2018 Base Prizm SGC 10 (Probably not 19,000) = $570 on 10/3
Luka Doncic 2018 Base Prizm Raw (ya donkey! Tens of thousands) = $165 on 10/3

So... you're paying over $600 more, for a base card, that's literally almost 19,000 PSA 10s (never mind any other grading company, PSA 9, etc.) when you could overspend for a raw card at a fraction of the cost.
 

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Interesting to compare the Barry Bonds 1987 Topps Traded PSA 9 (21,836 Pop) going for $35-$45 today when it was a $15-$20 card back in March & April of 2020.

Same for the 1988 Fleer PSA 10 of Tom Glavine (1739 Pop) going for just $25-$35 today. Threw out a bid on a Glavine Fleer PSA 10 with a max bid of just $25 just to see what it ends up at/if I get lucky and win it at a lower price.
 

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LOVE ME SOME GLAVINE!!!!


Friend sold me some stuff for registry:

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And this is an eBay pickup that I regret just based on the sheer size of the card.

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It came in a plastic holder that would normally be used for a bulk lot. For my purposes, if I WOULD want to grade it, I don't think any of PSA, BGS, or SGC slab this thick. And even for as relaxed as I am for prescreening cards, this one has enough visible flaws that it may just get rehomed locally to someone that is more casual about collecting than we are. My friend's daughter would love this thing but he won't play along with me that he's getting her the cards (or Santa) and he keeps telling her "Mr SFH at work had these and passed them to you." Like dude, you could totally be your kid's superhero, I'm totally alright with it. Take the credit. He's too honest. I digress.
 

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Picked up the following 18 NBA cards for $83 ($4.61 per card, most I spent was $7 for the Tatum Green) courtesy of Burbank off Beckett. Did a little bit of "prospecting" in a sense but these guys were all proven scorers and I wanted to have them in my collection. Dabbled in mostly color matching as well.

2015-16 Hoops Blue /399 - Bradley Beal
2018-19 Donruss Optic Blue Velocity - Bradley Beal
2019-20 Donruss Optic Blue Velocity - Bradley Beal
2019-20 Hoops Premium Prizms Blue Cracked Ice - Bradley Beal
2014-15 Threads Century Proof Red /199 - Damian Lillard
2016-17 Threads Century Proof Red /199 - Damian Lillard
2016-17 Donruss Optic Blue /49 - Karl-Anthony Towns
2019-20 Hoops Premium Prizms Blue Cracked Ice - Karl-Anthony Towns
2019-20 Hoops Premium Prizms Green - Jayson Tatum
2019-20 Hoops Premium Prizms Red Flash - Zach Lavine
2019-20 Donruss Optic Fast Breaks Purple /95 - Collin Sexton
2019-20 Hoops Silver /199 - Collin Sexton
2019-20 Select Prizms Red /199 - Collin Sexton
2020-21 Select Prizms Light Blue /299 - Donovan Mitchell
2019-20 Origins Blue /75 - Julius Randle
2019-20 Donruss Optic Choice Red /88 - Brandon Ingram
2019-20 Hoops Premium Prizms Purple Disco - De'Aaron Fox
2020-21 Prizm Purple Wave - De'Aaron Fox
 

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Burbank is the real deal. I don't think they've had any notable scandals in the hobby (outside of a few normal outliers from complaining customers), always give fair deals, and seem to always have something for EVERY PC in the hobby. I can go down a serious rabbit hole with their stock.
 

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Burbank is the real deal. I don't think they've had any notable scandals in the hobby (outside of a few normal outliers from complaining customers), always give fair deals, and seem to always have something for EVERY PC in the hobby. I can go down a serious rabbit hole with their stock.
Yeah, I don't use them as often because they've raised their prices a fair bit over the last 6 months (not surprising) but I couldn't pass up some of the selection they had compared to other stores. I don't ordinarily go into NBA cards like this but I really wanted some Bradley Beal (was 2nd to Steph in PPG last year) and I figured I'd jump on some other players I really like that could potentially have HOF careers or at the very least be remembered as very good players. KAT was the other player I really wanted with the Lillards, Sextons, Mitchell/Randle/Ingram being frosted cream bonuses.

Luka, Zion, Ja, Trae were all still out of my budget so I'm satisfied getting the guys I did.
 

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Interesting to compare the Barry Bonds 1987 Topps Traded PSA 9 (21,836 Pop) going for $35-$45 today when it was a $15-$20 card back in March & April of 2020.

Same for the 1988 Fleer PSA 10 of Tom Glavine (1739 Pop) going for just $25-$35 today. Threw out a bid on a Glavine Fleer PSA 10 with a max bid of just $25 just to see what it ends up at/if I get lucky and win it at a lower price.
Ended up outbid and that card will likely end up around $35-$40 by the end (2 days left at $25.01) so I snagged an SGC 10 (98) 1988 Fleer Tom Glavine for $39.95 with free shipping. Several PSA 10s went for: $36.87 (4SharpCorners), $42.99 (BIN), $59 (BIN/BO), $26 (Auction 9/19), $28.81 (Auction 9/19), $33.33 (Auction 9/19), and $38 (Auction 9/14)

I also have a GMA 10 from 10/30/20 that I had picked up for $12 so almost exactly a year later I'm fine paying a little over 3X for an SGC 10. I'm also satisfied paying for an SGC 10 at a similar price point as the PSA 10s whilst knowing SGC's a much tougher, fairer grader. The card looked really sharp too on the site.
 

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At one point I had 3 87 Topps Bonds rookies all graded in the area of BGS 8. Sold 2 of them during bad that year I frequently reference. Was such a low point in the card market, a horrible year to have personal crisis and have to sell stuff off. i think I might have gotten $15-18 for the two I sold off. Even my attorney had to write a letter to the court, "My client has tried selling off his assets to pay the debt and even that is not netting anywhere near the number he needs." It was bleak. My BGS 8 Marino rookie went for $30 levels of bleak.

If I could have just waited six more years :p
 

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At one point I had 3 87 Topps Bonds rookies all graded in the area of BGS 8. Sold 2 of them during bad that year I frequently reference. Was such a low point in the card market, a horrible year to have personal crisis and have to sell stuff off. i think I might have gotten $15-18 for the two I sold off. Even my attorney had to write a letter to the court, "My client has tried selling off his assets to pay the debt and even that is not netting anywhere near the number he needs." It was bleak. My BGS 8 Marino rookie went for $30 levels of bleak.

If I could have just waited six more years :p
I actually find it interesting that the '84 Marino in a BGS 8 is selling in the $75-$90 range. If it's any comfort, those Bonds BGS 8s are going for $9-$12 now too!
 
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Goddamn @SFH you have the perfect gif sig for your stories.
I was really inspired by little orphan Annie's song and just keep looking forward to the next sunrise.

I tell you what though, I'm glad I'm in this hobby. I just spent 8 hours with some friends that deal in video games and sometimes books and the hell they have to catch in their hobby when selling is exponentially more stressful than card stuff. With our cards, front, back, edges, corners. With books? There's 200-1000 pages worth of things a buyer can find to complain. Video games are just as touchy. (I collect both books and video games too but on an extremely amateur hour level, I'll buy a library binding of an old book if I like it enough and the only game I need CIB is Super Mario 3 and the copy I have has a tear in the box and that's why it only cost me $19.00). But that's another thread altogether.
 

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Always love Rudy's videos so it was interesting to see him cover PWCC and the shill bidding. Also attached the other video where this guy went after PWCC with lawyers and documented evidence, etc. Must watch.

 
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I'm going to come back to those videos in the next 5 hours or so. Just wanted to post that my Facebook bulk sub guy hit me up. Three CSG orders popped at the same time, so my "one per week" plan kind of just blew up in my face. On the plus side I get to do a 27 card reveal when they get here. I also ordered an iphone tripod so I'm able to use both hands for the next one. Will include cards from 1972 - present.
 

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Always love Rudy's videos so it was interesting to see him cover PWCC and the shill bidding. Also attached the other video where this guy went after PWCC with lawyers and documented evidence, etc. Must watch.

Rudy is always a great watch, thanks for sharing his video.

The 2nd video was also very compelling. I enjoyed his delivery. I do feel he probably could have reigned it in a bit on the Pawn Stars bit, it's commonly known (I thought) that it is staged. I agree in principle that calling in the Wata expert for the game was questionable, though.
 

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Picked up the following 18 NBA cards for $83 ($4.61 per card, most I spent was $7 for the Tatum Green) courtesy of Burbank off Beckett. Did a little bit of "prospecting" in a sense but these guys were all proven scorers and I wanted to have them in my collection. Dabbled in mostly color matching as well.

2015-16 Hoops Blue /399 - Bradley Beal
2018-19 Donruss Optic Blue Velocity - Bradley Beal
2019-20 Donruss Optic Blue Velocity - Bradley Beal
2019-20 Hoops Premium Prizms Blue Cracked Ice - Bradley Beal
2014-15 Threads Century Proof Red /199 - Damian Lillard
2016-17 Threads Century Proof Red /199 - Damian Lillard
2016-17 Donruss Optic Blue /49 - Karl-Anthony Towns
2019-20 Hoops Premium Prizms Blue Cracked Ice - Karl-Anthony Towns
2019-20 Hoops Premium Prizms Green - Jayson Tatum
2019-20 Hoops Premium Prizms Red Flash - Zach Lavine
2019-20 Donruss Optic Fast Breaks Purple /95 - Collin Sexton
2019-20 Hoops Silver /199 - Collin Sexton
2019-20 Select Prizms Red /199 - Collin Sexton
2020-21 Select Prizms Light Blue /299 - Donovan Mitchell
2019-20 Origins Blue /75 - Julius Randle
2019-20 Donruss Optic Choice Red /88 - Brandon Ingram
2019-20 Hoops Premium Prizms Purple Disco - De'Aaron Fox
2020-21 Prizm Purple Wave - De'Aaron Fox
Shared these on IG as part of my binder pages :) I really dig the Hoops Premium Stock Prizms in person, very snazzy and sharp.
 

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Card show pickups:

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Card show was more notable for the amount of guests that backed out, almost to a bait and switch degree. The guy that organized it is an honest man and probably just got hosed by booking agents. Also was able to interact with Golden Grading, a Baton Rouge company doing cards at $15/ card. As of yesterday they only did 1991-present. Today they announced 1951-present is their new standard. They plan to accept even more vintage in time. I picked up a cheap GPK in a Golden holder. It's about as secure as a PSA holder. Doesn't look the most aesthetic but I'm keeping my mind open with them if I can get a local to go in halves with me on a bulk sub. I made a lot of social media connections with the vendors.

With the exception of 2-3 tables it was all dedicated collectors, not shop owners. Guys that sell just to reinvest in their hobby. It was $75/table, all the tables and chairs were identical which tells me the venue provided them. The general vibe from everyone was "I broke even and then stopped counting." So basically they hit their $75 and relaxed. Mrs SFH wanted us to set something up but I wanted to scope it out myself first. We definitely need a secure clear locking case and price stickers. Other than that I probably could have broke even at bare minimum.
 

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Three order CSG 28 card pop:

Archie Manning (Saints legend, father to 3 jabronis that no one ever heard of):

Two 8.5 grades on something 49 years old pleased me.
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Baseball cards

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Brett Favre Priolsec originally given to me by a friend with heart burn that did not collect.
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Picked up a few hockey cards, mostly NHL Defensemen via Three Stars Sportscards for about $43. Keith and Doughty are in the top 35 of Defensive Point Shares per Hockey-Reference. Only 8 who are retired are not in the HOF.

I've been trying to shift a little more towards autograph cards if they are serial numbered and in that reasonable $10-$15 range raw if possible.

2005-06 Artifacts Autofacts (Autograph) Silver Chris Pronger /50
2007-08 Upper Deck MVP Super Script Duncan Keith /25
2010-11 Certified Gold Duncan Keith /25
2014-15 Upper Deck Trilogy Radiant Green Drew Doughty /18
 
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