Daily Fantasy Sports

[HarleyQuinn]

My very thin penciled lineup in the $25K Hot Rod. Don't know how high-level somebody can go lineup wise (without resorting to a bottom of the roster guy like I did) but I'm expecting to massively overhaul my lineup once the Qualifying races take place tomorrow afternoon. For now, I've just penciled in guys who've had good history at the track.

Kevin Harvick ($10,500)
Kyle Busch ($10,400)
Jeff Gordon ($8,800)
Ryan Newman ($7,900)
Ryan Blaney ($7,500)
Cole Whitt ($4,900)

A good number of options are $7,000+ so if you want 2 top tier guys of $9K+ you're gonna have to be smart with money management/find some great value in the $6,500-$7,500 range.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Qualifying just finished so I completely overhauled my lineup...

Pre-Qualifying Lineup
Kevin Harvick ($10,500)
Kyle Busch ($10,400)
Jeff Gordon ($8,800)
Ryan Newman ($7,900)
Ryan Blaney ($7,500)
Cole Whitt ($4,900)

Post-Qualifying Lineup
Brad Keselowski ($9,800) - 5th
Kevin Harvick ($10,500) - 7th
Kurt Busch ($9,400) - 11th
Chase Elliott ($9,200) - 15th
Ryan Blaney ($7,500) - 17th
Trevor Bayne ($6,500) - 20th
Danica Patrick ($6,300) - 24th

I really liked Matt Kenseth but his high price tag and starting so deep (18th) concerned me after watching last week's race and how hard it was to pass. That's also why I ignored Kasey Kahne, who's starting 26th despite a modest $7,700 price tag.

 

[909]

Kyle Busch - 1st
Tony Stewart - 3rd
Austin Dillon - 12th
Joey Logano - 14th
AJ Allmendinger - 25th GOING WITH THIS DUDE AGAIN.
Casey Mears - 34th


Definitely subject to change.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Got slaughtered. Irony is that Kenseth finished 2nd from 18th and Kahne finished 18th from 26th.

Gonna be sticking with Top 17 drivers in this race Last 4 Races (2012 - 2015) Top 12 Finishers: 22 started in the Top 10 (46%), 32 (67%) started in the Top 15, and 9 (19%) started 22nd or later in the race.

The sound theory continued as 10 of the Top 16 finished in the Top 12 drivers again. Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson were the big surprises moving from 18th and 13th to 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Harvick was the only guy who did well for me. Chase started & finished 15th, Kurt Busch fell from 11th to 16th, Keselowski plummeted from 5th to 17th, and Blaney/Bane just sucked. Danica only moved up 2 spots to 22nd.

 

[909]

Gonna let the NUTSACK FLY this week.

Carl Edwards - 2nd
Joey Logano - 10th
Kyle Larson - 11th
Kurt Busch - 15th
Jeff Gordon - 24th
JEB BURTON - 37th

yolo

 

[909]

In first place with a different lineup in the quarter arcade, it was worth 43 bucks. THEN THAT MOTHERFUCKER IN THE #3 CAR FUCKED MY SHIT UP

 

[909]

OMG AND THEN ONE OF MY CARS PITS WHEN IT'S RAINING TO COST ME 25 BUCKS. YOU MOTHERFUCKER

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Was in the $12 range and fell hard afterwards. I rolled with Biffle, Gordon, Larson, McMurray, Kurt Busch, and Clint Bowyer. Finished 3,794 out of 9,803 in one contest and 1,760 out of 4,705 in the other contest.

Most of my lineup finishing right around where they started just killed me especially Biffle at 25 considering how well he was racing during most of it. Gordon had gained 4 spots at one point and finished down 3 spots.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Experimenting a little bit this week...

Daily Dollar $1 Entry Experimenting with Great FP Last 2 Races at Watkins Glen
Carl Edwards ($9,700) - 1st
Joey Logano ($9,500) - 7th
Matt Kenseth ($8,100) - 4th
Greg Biffle ($7,700) - 24th
Casey Mears ($6,600) - 20th
Danica Patrick ($6,100) - 31st

Happy Hour $1 Entry Experimenting with Most Top 5s in Last 7 Starts at Road Courses
Kurt Busch ($10,400) - 17th
Carl Edwards ($9,700) - 1st
Jimmie Johnson ($8,800) - 13th
Clint Bowyer ($7,800) - 28th
Kasey Kahne ($7,600) - 23rd
Michael Annett ($4,700) - 38th .... Cheap Throw In. Has Scored 20+ FP in 3 races

$5K Arcade 0.25 Entry Experimenting with The Biggest Average Place Differential Lineup in Last 4 Races at Watkins Glen
Carl Edwards ($9,700) +8 Average - 1st
Matt Kenseth ($8,100) +6 Average - 4th
Greg Biffle ($7,700) +11 Average - 24th
Casey Mears ($6,600) +13 Average - 20th
Danica Patrick $6,100) +13 Average - 31st
David Ragan ($5,700) +6 Average - 26th

 

[909]

GK Hugo Lloris O 4 lock
D Cédric Soares 9.75 lock
D Pape Souaré 7.5 lock
M Erik Lamela 20.5 lock
M Dusan Tadic 13.75 lock
F Andre Gray 8.5 lock
F Álvaro Negredo 14.5 lock
UTIL Andros Townsend 22.75

I won $4 with this.

If I'd chosen Salomon Rondon instead of Andre Gray as I was considering, I win $45 aagggggggggghghhhhhhh

I also had Ben Foster instead of Lloris in the first place, which would have had the same effect. Both in and I win $125.

 

[Hawk 34]

#16 Greg Biffle 13.3% 200/200 22 11 11 Place Diff, 1 Laps Led, 1 Fastest Laps, 1 11th 44.75
#24 Chase Elliott 29.4% 200/200 5 2 3 Place Diff, 31 Laps Led, 37 Fastest Laps, 1 2nd 71.25
#48 Jimmie Johnson 24.7% 200/200 2 6 -4 Place Diff, 37 Laps Led, 17 Fastest Laps, 1 6th 51.75
#2 Brad Keselowski 31.2% 200/200 18 3 15 Place Diff, 14 Laps Led, 15 Fastest Laps, 1 3rd 67
#42 Kyle Larson 33.2% 200/200 12 1 11 Place Diff, 41 Laps Led, 33 Fastest Laps, 1 WINS 83.75
#10 Danica Patrick 9.1% 198/200 23 23 1 23rd 21
NAS Scoring Glossary TOTAL FANTASY POINTS: 339.50

This was good enough for 1st place finish, even tho the payout wasn't that significant.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Entered the Free Yahoo Cup thing
Week 1 Lineup
QB Aaron Rodgers ($34)
RB Spencer Ware ($12)
RB Bilal Powell ($14)
WR A.J. Green ($30)
WR Dez Bryant ($28)
WR Jordy Nelson ($28) - Rodgers to Jordy STACK
TE Gary Barnidge ($21)
FLEX Zach Ertz ($19) 2 TE w/FLEX Option
DEF Baltimore ($13) going up against Buffalo

Draft Kings Week 1 Free Lineup $100,000 Contest
QB Derek Carr ($7,300)
RB Doug Martin ($6,200)
RB Spencer Ware ($4,400)
WR Keenan Allen ($8,000)
WR Amari Cooper ($7,200) Carr to Cooper STACK
WR Sammy Watkins ($6,900)
TE Richard Rodgers ($3,100)
FLEX Zach Ertz ($4,300) 2 TE w/FLEX Option
DEF Tennessee ($2,600) going up against Minnesota

 

[909]

I keep changing my lineups, but I did three and HQ's DK lineup has only three players I don't have in one of mine. So that's interesting.

I see this week's options like this. No number rankings here.

QB

Expensive: Drew Brees. Taking on a newly put together Oakland defense, there's big potential to put up massive yardage.
Expensive: Derek Carr. New Orleans has a horrible defense.
Expensive: Russell Wilson. Same reason as Carr, plus he plays such a massive part in the offense that he'll also get rushing yardage.
Expensive: Andrew Luck. The Colts don't really have a running game, so he's a lock to pass for 300 yards even if he doesn't play well.
Maybe: Matthew Stafford. The logic for him is similar, but Golden Tate has a sore ankle. Still might be worth a risk.
Not Expensive: Jameis Winston. The Falcons do not put pressure on the QB.
Not Expensive: Brock Osweiler. This is definitely taking a risk, but I don't like the Bears defense at all. The Texans also have the best receiver in the game.

For reasons like game theory I can't justify taking anyone else.

RB

Expensive: Lamar Miller. Passing game opens lanes for him to run Chicago over.
Expensive: Adrian Peterson has to get fed. What else do the Vikings have?
Expensive: LeSean McCoy is playing against a Baltimore defense that gave up 100 yards per game last season and there is nobody behind him to take carries away from him.
Risky: Ryan Mathews is in a similar situation, but against a bad Cleveland team you have to wonder how long he'll be in the game.
Risky: Doug Martin should get a lot of carries, but Charles Sims is a good player that forces Tampa Bay to get him the ball.
Avoid: Eddie Lacy is in a time share with James Starks. Starks is actually at a very good price in these.
Avoid: Seattle running backs. Lots of noise about Michael and Rawls sharing carries.
Avoid: DeMarco Murray. Derrick Henry did a lot to prove me wrong in preseason and will take a lot of carries away from Murray this season.
Sleeper: Rashad Jennings. Lots of noise out there that he'll be playing a true lead back role and there's nobody else to take away his usage in the red zone.
Lock: Spencer Ware gets the majority of red zone carries in KC with Charles out. He's also super cheap, so that's an easy pick.
Lock: Danny Woodhead. San Diego's coaching staff overuses the fuck out of this guy. Guaranteed 12-15 points given San Diego will be playing from behind with Rivers checking down a lot. The way I structured my teams, I can't take him though.

There's too many WR's to mention here. For cheaper guys, you'd think that Tyler Lockett will get a TD, Travis Benjamin is a very good play because he's a smaller guy and can get open, and Marvin Jones didn't get paid all that money to just stand there.

Next up the rung are the mid-level options. I like Michael Crabtree and Donte Moncrief.

Top level I'm gonna stay away from AJ Green because nobody gets shit on Revis and stay away from Julio Jones because he's way too expensive and forces me to use players I don't want to. DeAndre Hopkins is gonna get his 100+ yards or two TD's no matter what. Nobody can stop him. Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, and Mike Evans are like that when they're on, but they're really inconsistent. I picked them anyway. Brandin Cooks is another good pick.

At TE I put Delanie Walker in all my lineups. His weekly stat line is ridiculous and if he was doing it for a different team people would be freaking out. He gets 8-15 targets every week and catches the vast majority of them.

 

[Sex Machine Gun]

I'm giving DFS a real shot this year as opposed to entering free contests sponsored by a football column or something. I put $100 into seven different FanDuel contests (all but one are 50/50's) and am curious to see how I do besides the obvious monetary aspect. I went in on one $50 50/50 but the rest are all $5/$10.

My lineup for the $50 entry, maybe some of the DFS veterans here can provide some insight:

QB: Jameis Winston
RB: David Johnson
RB: Spencer Ware
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Mike Evans
WR: Jarvis Landry
TE: Jesse James
D/ST: Seahawks
K: Gostkowski

I have Landry purely for the 1/2 PPR aspect because he's going to have at least a dozen targets, but that's the only one I feel weird about. Thoughts?

 

[Edwin]

If iggymcfly is still alive somewhere, I bet he'll commit suicide after a bad day of DFS.

 

[909]

If iggymcfly is still alive somewhere, I bet he'll commit suicide after a bad day of DFS.

He won a WSOP braclet lirl.

 

[909]

I'm giving DFS a real shot this year as opposed to entering free contests sponsored by a football column or something. I put $100 into seven different FanDuel contests (all but one are 50/50's) and am curious to see how I do besides the obvious monetary aspect. I went in on one $50 50/50 but the rest are all $5/$10.

My lineup for the $50 entry, maybe some of the DFS veterans here can provide some insight:

QB: Jameis Winston
RB: David Johnson
RB: Spencer Ware
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Mike Evans
WR: Jarvis Landry
TE: Jesse James
D/ST: Seahawks
K: Gostkowski

I have Landry purely for the 1/2 PPR aspect because he's going to have at least a dozen targets, but that's the only one I feel weird about. Thoughts?

Landry will probably be covered by Richard Sherman all game. I got scared away from playing him even though Miami has to throw to him. I don't know how FanDuel scores though.

 

[Sex Machine Gun]

Sherman's not a follower though, dude does a side of the field like Josh Norman and Landry gets moved around a lot.

I believe FanDuel and DraftKings have fairly identical scoring.

 

[909]

Your lineup should cash in 50/50. I would be surprised if not.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

I keep changing my lineups, but I did three and HQ's DK lineup has only three players I don't have in one of mine. So that's interesting.

Good stuff. I mostly went with the following concepts...

#1: Players with "great" matchups e.g. opposing defenses being bad and/or allowing a lot of points to said position last year.
#2: Elite talent, specifically at QB/WR tying into #1 with low cost options at RB.
#3: Players who should have good games but, tying into #1, have potential to put up massive numbers if they hit right.
#4: STACKS at QB/WR to help if the QB has a great game, the WR should also benefit massively.
#5: Doing the Dual TE Flex to see how it goes/works out. Barnidge and Rodgers should see a good number of passes thrown their way and I expect Wentz to lean on Ertz for Philadelphia. Also Doug comes over from KC where he had Kelce so I expect him to utilize the TE heavily in his system.

 

[fazzle]

So far I only have one lineup on Fanduel, but it's also for a free contest so I didn't put as much thought into it as I might have if I actually had money on the line

Big Ben
Gurley
Zeke
Pryor
Sammy
Evans
Fleener
Crosby
Rams D

 

[HarleyQuinn]

My DK Lineup finished 121,290 out of 485,642 with 140.16 FP. Carr/Cooper STACK paid off as did Ware while Doug Martin and Keenan Allen (for obvious reasons) performed just decently. I got just 8.3 from Sammy Watkins, 3.2 from Richard Rodgers, and 4 from the Titans D.

Scored 117.06 FP in Week 1 of Yahoo thanks to Gary Barnidge giving 0.00 and Dez Bryant giving me 1.30. Aaron Rodgers (23.56), Spencer Ware (29.40), and AJ Green (30.00) all hit and Jordy was solid (12.20) but had just 32 yards despite 6 catches.

Rolling with this lineup in Yahoo Week 2
QB Matt Ryan $31
RB CJ Anderson $30
RB Lamar Miller $31
WR Julio Jones $35 ATLANTA STACK
WR Victor Cruz $13
WR Mike Wallace $17
TE Jason Witten $16
FLEX Cole Beasley $14
DEF New England $14

Here's my Week 2 Draft Kings Contest
QB Eli Manning $7600
RB Mark Ingram $6200
RB Jonathan Stewart $5400
WR AJ Green $8900
WR Victor Cruz $4300 GIANTS STACK
WR Larry Fitzgerald $6400
TE Larry Donnell $2900 GIANTS TRIO
FLEX Willie Snead $5800
DEF Jacksonville $2300

 

[909]

I think I'm gonna go in on Carolina's run game this week. I won $7 last week with this lineup.

QB Derek Carr 25.36
RB Rashad Jennings 8.8
RB Lamar Miller 18.7
WR Amari Cooper 24.7
WR Marvin Jones Jr. 12.5
WR Donte Moncrief 18.4
TE Zach Ertz 11.8
FLEX Danny Woodhead 23
DST Texans 8

TOTAL FANTASY POINTS: 151.26

If I'd followed my own advice on Spencer Ware I would have cleaned up in every contest I played.

The Atlanta idea is good in theory, but Matt Ryan isn't Drew Brees and he'll struggle greatly to throw to anyone besides Julio Jones. I really like Eli and Cam Newton this week. Also going to do a trial lineup where I pick Trevor Siemian or Jimmy Grapplebro. Try to skimp on QB's, take top WR's and check down passing RB's.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Ryan isn't Drew Brees but he's more than capable of throwing for 270-295 and 2 TD in a game especially against a Raiders team that could put them down early and force Atlanta to throw. Ryan threw for 334 and 2 TD last week against Tampa Bay after all because Tampa was devoted to stuffing Freeman, which they did, and I think Oakland does a similar defensive gameplan.

 

[Sex Machine Gun]

Biggest FanDuel entry for me this week (50/50, $25 entry):

QB: Eli Manning
RB: Spencer Ware
RB: DeAngelo Williams
WR: Odell Beckham Jr.
WR: Brandon Marshall
WR: Jarvis Landry
TE: Jesse James
K: Cairo Santos
D/ST: NY Jets

I'm doing the Eli/OBJ stack everywhere too.

 

[909]

How did your other lineups do?

 

[Sex Machine Gun]

Pretty damn well, my $50 50/50 entry was my best lineup and I really should have used it everywhere because it would have won me close to $200. This week I'm a bit more uniform on my tickets. I'm proud of coming in within the top 10% in my first paid 231,000 person tournament since that was the one I never thought I'd win anything on but Ware and James being cheap let me load up elsewhere both last week and this week as well.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Gonna roll with this lineup in the DK $10K Week 2 Contest

QB Philip Rivers $6,400
RB Danny Woodhead $5,200 RIVAS TO ROADHEAD STACK
RB Thomas Rawls $5,500
WR Mike Evans $7,200
WR AJ Green $8,900
WR Will Fuller $4,200
TE Kyle Rudolph $3,100
FLEX Larry Fitzgerald $6,400
DEF Baltimore $3,000

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Rolling with this in the Free Yahoo Week 3 $1K

QB Carson Wentz $27
RB Gio Bernard $16
RB Christine Michael $14
WR Brandin Cooks $33
WR A.J. Green $28
WR Jordan Matthews $28 WENTZ TO JORDAN STACK
TE Delanie Walker $23
FLEX Jason Witten $18 Chicago missing so many D players could make this a sneaky big play
DEF San Francisco $13 Taking a risk on them being turnover focused + facing a rookie maybe in Boykin

EDIT And rolling with this in the Free Draft Kings $10K
QB Cam Newton $7,800
RB Christine Michael $5,000
RB Justin Forsett $3,900
WR Antonio Brown $9,600
WR Kelvin Benjamin $7,200 CAM TO KELVIN STACK
WR Quincy Enunwa $4,800
TE Jason Witten $4,300
FLEX Delanie Walker $5,000
DEF San Francisco $2,400

 

[909]

I won 16 bucks last week by playing the timeslot specific contests.

I'm loading up on Tannehill this week. Carson Palmer is another possibility as is Derek Carr. WR wise I really like Michael Floyd this week for some reason.

Playing Cam against the Minnesota D is p. risky.

Late game it's either Big Ben, Luck, or Dak Prescott. Haven't decided.