MLB 75

[alkeiper]

I saw the NBA 75 thread and it got me thinking. If you draw up a list of the greatest MLB players a disproportionate number played in some distant era. Only six of the top 20 in wins above replacement debuted after 1950. What if we drew up a list with the same parameters as the NBA? And fortunately this is the 75th season since Jackie Robinson's debut, making it convenient to look at the "integration era." This is a list of WAR by players from 1947 to 2021, specifically through August 3rd. That means for players like Ted Williams it only counts his career from 1947 to his retirement. Players not on the list who retired in 1947 or later include Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Mize, Luke Appling and Arky Vaughan. The closest active players not on the list are Joey Votto and Max Scherzer.

In practice this is a first draft. Jackie Robinson ironically misses the list. He got started in professional baseball at a late age and given how he actually played I feel comfortable saying Jackie should make such a list. People would have a heart attack about Sandy Koufax, but I'm not sure his case is as ironclad as people may think. In any case this list is all about career value. A peak value list would look far different.

Edit: Should note that I would weight catchers higher in a second draft. They're generally undercounted in WAR due to less playing time.

1 Barry Bonds 162.7
2 Willie Mays 156.1
3 Hank Aaron 143.1
4 Roger Clemens 139.2
5 Alex Rodriguez 117.5
6 Rickey Henderson 111.2
7 Mickey Mantle 110.2
8 Tom Seaver 109.9
9 Frank Robinson 107.2
10 Mike Schmidt 106.9
11 Greg Maddux 106.6
12 Randy Johnson 101.1
13 Joe Morgan 100.4
14 Albert Pujols 99.5
15 Warren Spahn 98.1
16 Carl Yastrzemski 96.5
17 Eddie Mathews 96.1
18 Cal Ripken Jr. 95.9
19 Phil Niekro 95.9
20 Roberto Clemente 94.8
21 Stan Musial 94.8
22 Bert Blyleven 94.5
23 Adrian Beltre 93.5
24 Al Kaline 92.8
25 Wade Boggs 91.4
26 Steve Carlton 90.2
27 Gaylord Perry 90
28 Bob Gibson 89.1
29 George Brett 88.6
30 Robin Roberts 86.1
31 Chipper Jones 85.3
32 Fergie Jenkins 84.1
33 Pedro Martinez 83.9
34 Ken Griffey Jr. 83.8
35 Mike Mussina 82.8
36 Nolan Ryan 81.3
37 Rod Carew 81.2
38 Tom Glavine 80.7
39 Jeff Bagwell 79.9
40 Pete Rose 79.6
41 Curt Schilling 79.5
42 Brooks Robinson 78.4
43 Robin Yount 77.3
44 Ted Williams 77.2
45 Ozzie Smith 76.9
46 Mike Trout 75.9
47 Paul Molitor 75.7
48 Lou Whitaker 75.1
49 Johnny Bench 75.1
50 Reggie Jackson 73.9
51 Frank Thomas 73.8
52 Zack Greinke 73.8
53 Jim Thome 73.1
54 Larry Walker 72.7
55 Rafael Palmeiro 71.9
56 Justin Verlander 71.8
57 Clayton Kershaw 71.7
58 Derek Jeter 71.3
59 Bobby Grich 71
60 Alan Trammell 70.7
61 Barry Larkin 70.5
62 Ron Santo 70.5
63 Carlos Beltran 70.1
64 Scott Rolen 70.1
65 Gary Carter 70.1
66 Robinson Cano 69.5
67 Rick Reuschel 69.5
68 Tim Raines 69.4
69 Manny Ramirez 69.3
70 Miguel Cabrera 69.2
71 Tony Gwynn 69.2
72 John Smoltz 69
73 Ivan Rodriguez 68.7
74 Eddie Murray 68.6
75 Jim Palmer 68.5

 

[alkeiper]

Let's take a different approach. Instead of career value, what if we took a player's peak? I compiled a list of players by their five best consecutive years.

1 Willie Mays 52.3
2 Barry Bonds 51.1
3 Joe Morgan 47.8
4 Mickey Mantle 47.6
5 Mike Trout 47.3
6 Albert Pujols 44.6
7 Randy Johnson 43.8
8 Henry Aaron 43.7
9 Alex Rodriguez 43.5
10 Carl Yastrzemski 43.4
11 Pedro Martinez 42.8
12 Robin Roberts 42.6
13 Bob Gibson 42.5
14 Wade Boggs 42.2
15 Ron Santo 41.9
16 Jackie Robinson 41.6
17 Stan Musial 41.6
18 Roger Clemens 41.4
19 Sandy Koufax 40.8
20 Mike Schmidt 40.5
21 Greg Maddux 40.3
22 Phil Niekro 40.1
23 Mookie Betts 40
24 Tom Seaver 40
25 Roberto Clemente 39.9
26 Chase Utley 39.7
27 Ernie Banks 39.7
28 Wilbur Wood 39.1
29 Rod Carew 38.8
30 Gaylord Perry 38.7
31 George Brett 38.5
32 Duke Snider 38.4
33 Ted Williams 37.9
34 Ken Griffey Jr. 37.8
35 Todd Helton 37.5
36 Juan Marichal 37.1
37 Kevin Brown 36.7
38 Eddie Mathews 36.6
39 Fergie Jenkins 36.5
40 Clayton Kershaw 36.3
41 Curt Schilling 36.3
42 Rickey Henderson 36.2
43 Bert Blyleven 35.9
44 Johan Santana 35.7
45 Cal Ripken Jr. 35.5
46 Ralph Kiner 35.5
47 Robinson Cano 35.4
48 Frank Robinson 35.2
49 Bobby Grich 35
50 Jason Giambi 34.7
51 Jeff Bagwell 34.5
52 Max Scherzer 34.5
53 Andruw Jones 34.1
54 Roy Halladay 34
55 Warren Spahn 34
56 Gary Carter 33.9
57 Ken Boyer 33.8
58 Miguel Cabrera 33.8
59 Dave Stieb 33.7
60 Brooks Robinson 33.3
61 Josh Donaldson 33.1
62 Sammy Sosa 33.1
63 Sal Bando 33
64 Robin Yount 32.9
65 Craig Biggio 32.8
66 Al Kaline 32.7
67 Ryne Sandberg 32.7
68 Andre Dawson 32.6
69 Johnny Bench 32.6
70 Nolan Arenado 32.6
71 Adrian Beltre 32.5
72 Willie McCovey 32.5
73 Kevin Appier 32.3
74 Ozzie Smith 32.3
75 Reggie Jackson 32.3
76 Tim Raines 32.3

Quick observations. Barry Bonds sticks out like a sore thumb. There are comparable pitchers who pitched well into their 40s. There are multiple players who excelled as teenagers. No player dominated in his late 30s like Bonds.

-Despite that, Willie Mays is still better. Goddamn he was a great ballplayer.

-Clemens was actually better as a young player. His late career run isn't about unusual dominance. He just kept doing it longer than anyone else.

-Thanks to the truncated 2020 season, a player is going to have a difficult time reaching this list in the near future.

48 players made both lists. 28 made the peak list only, 27 made the career list only. Top ten players who didn't make the career list: Pedro Martinez, Jackie Robinson, Sandy Koufax, Mookie Betts, Chase Utley, Ernie Banks, Wilbur Wood, Duke Snider, Todd Helton, Juan Marichal. Martinez, Robinson and Koufax would obviously make an MLB 75 list. Snider and Banks are sentimental favorites. Marichal and Utley have great arguments but could get crowded out. I'm not sure about Todd Helton. Mookie Betts is a great player but only halfway done. Wilbur Wood racked up high WAR totals because of his huge IP numbers but I'm not sure he's a real candidate.

 

[Dandy]

How many consecutive years were you looking at, @alkeiper ?

 

[alkeiper]

How many consecutive years were you looking at, @alkeiper ?

Sorry, five years

 

[Dandy]

Votto misses out due to two injuries. His 2014 was awful before it was ended, but he would go on to be a second half juggernaut in the years after that so who knows how it could have ended. He was mashing on 2012 before the knee injury in the slide though.

 

[alkeiper]

Votto is pretty close on both lists. I think one of the premises I have is that some really freaking good players get cut off. Hall of Famers. Frank Thomas doesn’t make the cut on peak and he was a beast.

 

[alkeiper]

I'm gonna throw this list out there. Players by Wins Above Replacement as a ratio. For batters it's per 162 games. For pitchers it's per 34 starts or 68 relief appearances. Mixing hitters and pitchers in a list like this is an imperfect approach and it's probably worth noting where they place in relation to other hitters/pitchers rather than trying to compare Mickey Mantle and Bob Gibson, for example. Trying to combine hitting and pitching value is a complete disaster. Bob Gibson in a 162 game average adds 2 WAR a season, but he isn't batting 400 times a season.

I bring that up to note Shohei Ohtani. If you take his total (batting/pitching) per 162 games, it's 5.7. I think that method gives extra weight to his pitching. I don't think WAR accurately depicts what Ohtani is as a player.

1 Mike Trout 9.5
2 Barry Bonds 8.8
3 Mookie Betts 8.6
4 Willie Mays 8.4
5 Ted Williams 8.0
6 Mickey Mantle 7.4
7 Jackie Robinson 7.2
8 Mike Schmidt 7.2
9 Jacob deGrom 7.0
10 Henry Aaron 7.0
11 Alex Rodriguez 6.8
12 Roger Clemens 6.7
13 Mark Fidrych 6.7
14 Pedro Martinez 6.6
15 Eddie Mathews 6.5
16 Stan Musial 6.4
17 Clayton Kershaw 6.3
18 Roberto Clemente 6.3
19 Frank Robinson 6.2
20 Joe Morgan 6.1
21 Josh Donaldson 6.1
22 Wade Boggs 6.1
23 Jeff Bagwell 6.0
24 Nolan Arenado 5.9
25 Larry Walker 5.9
26 Randy Johnson 5.8
27 Rickey Henderson 5.8
28 Manny Machado 5.8
29 Brandon Webb 5.7
30 Chris Sale 5.7
31 Bobby Grich 5.7
32 Johnny Bench 5.6
33 Scott Rolen 5.6
34 Troy Tulowitzki 5.6
35 Ralph Kiner 5.6
36 Dustin Pedroia 5.6
37 Tom Seaver 5.5
38 Bob Gibson 5.5
39 Roy Halladay 5.5
40 Max Scherzer 5.5
41 Lorenzo Cain 5.5
42 Chipper Jones 5.5
43 Albert Pujols 5.5
44 Joey Votto 5.5
45 Curt Schilling 5.4
46 Justin Verlander 5.4
47 Johan Santana 5.4
48 Chase Utley 5.4
49 Mark McGwire 5.4
50 Lenny Dykstra 5.4
51 Dick Allen 5.4
52 Giancarlo Stanton 5.4
53 Edgar Martinez 5.4
54 Paul Goldschmidt 5.4
55 Kris Bryant 5.4
56 Corey Kluber 5.3
57 Buster Posey 5.3
58 Reggie Smith 5.3
59 Larry Doby 5.3
60 Al Kaline 5.3
61 Rod Carew 5.3
62 George Brett 5.3
63 Kenny Lofton 5.3
64 Mike Mussina 5.2
65 Bret Saberhagen 5.2
66 Thurman Munson 5.2
67 Barry Larkin 5.2
68 Adrian Beltre 5.2
69 Evan Longoria 5.2
70 Cal Ripken Jr. 5.2
71 Cody Bellinger 5.2
72 Andrelton Simmons 5.1
73 Sandy Koufax 5.1
74 Lou Whitaker 5.1
75 Ron Santo 5.1
76 Ken Griffey Jr. 5.1
77 Frank Thomas 5.1
78 Ryne Sandberg 5.1
79 Christian Yelich 5.1
80 Pee Wee Reese 5.1
81 Bobby Bonds 5.1

 

[alkeiper]

One more list. Players who had the best seasons, 1947-2021:

1 Carl Yastrzemski 12.4
2 Dwight Gooden 12.2
3 Steve Carlton 12.1
4 Barry Bonds 11.9
5 Roger Clemens 11.9
6 Pedro Martinez 11.7
7 Wilbur Wood 11.7
8 Cal Ripken Jr. 11.5
9 Mickey Mantle 11.3
10 Stan Musial 11.3
11 Willie Mays 11.2
12 Bob Gibson 11.2
13 Joe Morgan 11
14 Gaylord Perry 10.8
15 Mookie Betts 10.7
16 Randy Johnson 10.7
17 Sandy Koufax 10.7
18 Tom Seaver 10.6
19 Mike Trout 10.5
20 Robin Yount 10.5
21 Alex Rodriguez 10.4
22 Lou Boudreau 10.4
23 Zack Greinke 10.4
24 Sammy Sosa 10.3
25 Juan Marichal 10.3
26 Ernie Banks 10.2
27 Aaron Nola 10.2
28 Dick Ellsworth 10.2
29 Al Rosen 10.1
30 Fergie Jenkins 10.1
31 Rico Petrocelli 10
32 Phil Niekro 10
33 Rickey Henderson 9.9
34 Jacob deGrom 9.9
35 Larry Walker 9.8
36 Mike Schmidt 9.8
37 Ron Santo 9.8
38 Bert Blyleven 9.8
39 Robin Roberts 9.8
40 Bryce Harper 9.7
41 Albert Pujols 9.7
42 Ken Griffey Jr. 9.7
43 Rod Carew 9.7
44 Ted Williams 9.7
45 Jackie Robinson 9.7
46 Greg Maddux 9.7
47 Bret Saberhagen 9.7
48 Adrian Beltre 9.6
49 Ron Guidry 9.6
50 Mark Fidrych 9.6
51 Henry Aaron 9.5
52 Rick Reuschel 9.5
53 Craig Biggio 9.4
54 George Brett 9.4
55 Teddy Higuera 9.4
56 Dean Chance 9.4
57 Ewell Blackwell 9.4
58 Warren Spahn 9.4
59 Kevin Appier 9.3
60 Scott Rolen 9.2
61 Ichiro Suzuki 9.2
62 Jason Giambi 9.2
63 Reggie Jackson 9.2
64 Norm Cash 9.2
65 Jose Rijo 9.2
66 Wade Boggs 9.1
67 Duke Snider 9.1
68 Jon Matlack 9.1
69 Chase Utley 9
70 Darrell Evans 9
71 Vida Blue 9
72 Jim Bunning 9
73 Alex Bregman 8.9
74 Todd Helton 8.9
75 Lenny Dykstra 8.9
Fred Lynn 8.9
Roberto Clemente 8.9

The point of this isn't to say one list is better than another. Rather it's to provide four different looks. If a player appears on every list, he is probably one of the top 75 without a second thought. But just because a player is only on one list does not mean he is undeserving. Nolan Ryan, Pete Rose, Derek Jeter, Tony Gwynn only appear on one. 23 players appear on all four lists, 59 on two or three and 66 players on one list. 148 players in total.

Did we miss anyone? Catchers, you don't see Carlton Fisk, Mike Piazza, Yogi Berra, Joe Torre, Joe Mauer or Roy Campanella on any list. (Campanella loses his negro league accomplishments with the 1947 cutoff.) Mariano Rivera, there's an argument that he's a relief pitcher of such importance that he belongs. David Ortiz, let him into the discussion. Anyone else?