MLB Regular Season 2021

[alkeiper]

That was Hample?!

 

[treble]

This is the Zapruder film

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1384324972726964224

 

[King Kamala]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1384299573754007559

Ya love to see it.

 

[alkeiper]

We're at the point of the season where teams collectively have about 600-700 plate appearances apiece. I think it's interesting because it kind of shows you what kind of sample size that really is. You don't get huge shifts or flukes. But you do see teams whose batting average is 20-30 points off the mark. That happens with individual player seasons and sometimes we forget that even in a full season a lot is chance.

Offensive is down so far, but it's only April. Runs/game lowest since 2015. Hits/game (7.64) is lowest EVER, batting average lowest ever. Home runs down but still historically high. Steals per game lowest since 1967. Caught stealing lowest ever. Strikeouts/game again at a record high. Double plays are at a record low and oddly hit batters are on a record high pace.

 

[Dandy]

On the hits/game average, how many games have not gone 9 innings this year due to the 7 inning twinbill rule? Is that taken into consideration? Every doubleheader is now 4 innings shorter unless there are extra innings.

 

[King Kamala]

Is the 7 inning twinbill rule pandemic related or is it permanent?

 

[alkeiper]

On the hits/game average, how many games have not gone 9 innings this year due to the 7 inning twinbill rule? Is that taken into consideration? Every doubleheader is now 4 innings shorter unless there are extra innings.

Crap. That really throws off the rubric. The pitching side has hits per nine, so I can use that. It puts 2021 in second place behind 1908 and tied with 1968. But then it makes the strikeout increase even more profound. 9.4 per nine.

 

[Dandy]

I can go way more in-depth later when I have the time, but the extreme shifts are drastically cutting down the hits. Obviously it is not the only factor as pitching velocity and spin rate is making it harder to hit. However, you can look no further than hit probability or xBA on balls that are outs to get a good idea of what hitting into these shifts is doing. Also included in that is normal shading based on scouting data, but the extreme shifts are doing the bulk of the work. Joey Votto, for instance, was crushing the ball with great Exit Velocity and had a very high xBA compared to his BA. Unlucky? Some. But from watching every game, I can tell you that he just couldn’t get those balls through the shift.


It seems to me that using the bag at second and the skin to grass outfield areas as boundaries for defensive alignment prior to the pitch is what is needed. It is also a simple rule to implement. The infield must have two defenders on each side of second base and cannot be in the outfield grass prior to the pitch. The three outfielders cannot be on the infield dirt prior to the pitch.

The shifts have gotten not only more frequent, but they have evolved quite a bit. There is now a fourth outfielder for all intents and purposes play shallow right. That player is athletic and has a strong arm, and is often the shortstop in these more extreme shifts. So even balls that are hit hard enough to get through the infield are outs from short right field.

Shifts have, in a way, created the launch angle craze as it doesn’t matter how they shift you on the field if you hit it over the fence “where they ain’t.” It has led to higher K% in my mind by virtue of hitters swinging for more home runs.

Want to change the game to trend back toward the norms? Enact a rule that limits the shift.

 

[alkeiper]

The trouble with the shifts theory is that Babip (Batting average of balls in play) is not historically low. It's .284 this year, down from .292 last year and .298 in 2019. That's a precipitous drop, but there's a lot of noise in the data and shifts didn't just appear this year. Strikeouts have spiked, two more a game (one per team) in the last five years and four more a game in the last ten. On a certain level it doesn't matter where the fielders play since batters have never put the ball in play less than baseball history. (For what it's worth, I believe defense has never been better. Center fielders make unbelievable plays now.) Personally I think a better solution is make pitchers pace themselves and pitch longer, but batters would crush them.

 

[strummer]

Was actually going to post something akin to this the other day. Honestly this season has been a bore to watch so far. Hitters seem to have trouble catching up to fastballs. I mean it's plainly obvious. Offense is down. Can't say it's been an exciting season so far

 

[strummer]

And the other day on the Mets telecast they were saying there's been talk of moving the mound back. Actually wouldn't mind that at this point

 

[alkeiper]

They’re going to try it in the second half in the Atlantic league, back a foot to 61’6”.

 

[Dandy]

@alkeiper, I was speaking about since extreme shifts became more frequent. They have increased over the last several years.

Votto’s specific data was this year; overall, shifts have had a drastic effect on offense over the last few years.

 

[Gert]

Want to change the game to trend back toward the norms? Enact a rule that limits the shift.

The Atlantic League (I believe?) or one of the other minor leagues is testing that rule out among others this season.

Crazy finish in Oakland today, as the A's scored 3 runs in the bottom of the 10th without a hit to beat the Twins 13-12 for their 11th straight victory.

 

[alkeiper]

I tuned into that game and somehow caught despite multiple demands by my daughter to read every message in her game. Including during the final play.

 

[King Kamala]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1385311867451629571

Rough afternoon for @Dandy

 

[Dandy]

Nah, I would have Claymored that kid and came away with the ball.

 

[geniusMoment]

If you want more hits forget about banning the shift. Just have all the hitters in the league face the Reds bullpen. Jesus fucking christ.

 

[Cartman]

It may not be all the Shifts to blame, but the shifts absolutely have changed the way hitters approach at-bats overall. Strikeouts are way up because hitters that get drastic shifts are just going to swing for the fences more often (launch angle), and would clearly rather K than hit into a DP with runners on base as well. I'm all for changes to the game like moving the mound a bit, but they definitely need to address the shifts AND the Pitch Clock needs to be implemented as it has in the Minors for years.

 

[strummer]

The Mets must still think it's 2016 because they can't get Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo out. This team is borderline unwatchable they are so boring

 

[strummer]

The Mets have now lost 40 of their last 55 games at Wrigley Field (reg. Season)

 

[alkeiper]

The Mets have now lost 40 of their last 55 games at Wrigley Field (reg. Season)

Checked it out for myself, you need to go back to 2003. They're 28-29 at home in that span against the Cubs.

				Pitc
Rk	Franchise	Tm	G	W	L	W-L%	RS	RA	hmW-L	rdW-L	Games_list
1	Arizona Diamondbacks	ARI	113	60	53	.531	515	470	30-25	30-28	games
2	Atlanta Braves	ATL	326	143	183	.439	1282	1471	75-88	68-95	games
3	Baltimore Orioles	BAL	24	14	10	.583	121	93	7-5	7-5	games
4	Boston Red Sox	BOS	16	6	10	.375	67	79	1-4	5-6	games
5	Chicago Cubs	CHC	112	43	69	.384	451	555	28-29	15-40	games
6	Chicago White Sox	CHW	10	6	4	.600	30	23	2-3	4-1	games
7	Cincinnati Reds	CIN	111	66	45	.595	527	444	32-25	34-20	games
8	Cleveland Indians	CLE	15	11	4	.733	74	62	5-1	6-3	games
9	Colorado Rockies	COL	118	64	54	.542	596	527	38-20	26-34	games
10	Detroit Tigers	DET	21	11	10	.524	118	105	7-5	4-5	games
11	Houston Astros	HOU	73	40	33	.548	301	265	25-12	15-21	games
12	Kansas City Royals	KCR	13	7	6	.538	49	43	3-2	4-4	games
13	Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	LAA ANA	18	9	9	.500	83	105	4-5	5-4	games
14	Los Angeles Dodgers	LAD	115	49	66	.426	457	507	23-31	26-35	games
15	Miami Marlins	MIA FLA	328	168	160	.512	1433	1342	88-80	80-80	games
16	Milwaukee Brewers	MIL	110	50	60	.455	487	523	24-32	26-28	games
17	Minnesota Twins	MIN	19	12	7	.632	96	72	7-4	5-3	games
18	New York Yankees	NYY	98	42	56	.429	428	489	20-27	22-29	games
19	Oakland Athletics	OAK	16	10	6	.625	81	60	8-3	2-3	games
20	Philadelphia Phillies	PHI	332	173	159	.521	1586	1509	84-80	89-79	games
21	Pittsburgh Pirates	PIT	114	59	55	.518	495	490	34-24	25-31	games
22	San Diego Padres	SDP	111	53	58	.477	468	446	31-23	22-35	games
23	San Francisco Giants	SFG	111	61	50	.550	476	431	30-24	31-26	games
24	Seattle Mariners	SEA	15	5	10	.333	38	85	2-4	3-6	games
				Pitc
25	St. Louis Cardinals	STL	114	51	63	.447	485	520	33-27	18-36	games
26	Tampa Bay Rays	TBR	15	7	8	.467	68	62	3-6	4-2	games
27	Texas Rangers	TEX	16	10	6	.625	102	76	5-3	5-3	games
28	Toronto Blue Jays	TOR	17	8	9	.471	84	89	3-1	5-8	games
29	Washington Nationals	WSN MON	326	152	174	.466	1317	1453	69-96	83-78	games
			2827	1390	1437	.492	12315	12396	721-689	669-748

[thead] [/thead]


[thead] [/thead]

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/23/2021.

Similar records of futility. The Twins are 13-43 at Yankee Stadium(s). The Pirates are 15-43 at Dodger Stadium.

Fun stuff digging through other data. The Rockies are 92-71 against the Giants at home since 2003. On the road, 63-102. The home park is the difference between playing like a 90 win team and a 100 loss team.

 

[Brocklock]

Cubs offense finally showing up the last few games has been fun to watch. It was really disheartening to see guys like Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo play like that, but they are all starting to really heat up. They are currently putting a 10-0 whooping through 3 innings on The Brewers. The NL Central feels up for grabs again like the usual and you could probably win the division without an amazing record.

 

[Krankor]

Gotta love Willians Astudillo. Dude throwing 72 mph GAS.

File this clip to guys that look like Bartolo Colon:

 

[alkeiper]

Willians Astudillo caught my eye as a Phillies prospect, he had a year in Venezuela where he hit .361 in 220 plate appearances and struck out twice. But with that body, not a real prospect. Keeps hitting, willing to do anything on a baseball diamond. His ability to make contact is unreal and god he’s a fun player. He’s the first player in 20 years to strike out in less than 5% of his plate appearances.

Today Astudillo swung at a pitch at eye level and drove it over the fence.

 

[strummer]

Jacob deGrom a complete game 2 hitter with 15 Ks against the Nats tonight. And the Mets won!

 

[Aero]

A privilege to watch. Gave up two hits, but had two hits of his own.

 

[Big Beard Booty Daddy]

Jacob deGrom a complete game 2 hitter with 15 Ks against the Nats tonight. And the Mets won!

And they scored 6 runs for DeGrom!

 

[OldSchoolWrestling]

My A's started 1-7 and have won 12 straight!!!

 

[OldSchoolWrestling]

My A's started 1-7 and have won 12 straight!!!

13 straight and will be tied for best record in baseball if the Dodgers hold on and lose. The A's are often hot in April/May before being out of it by July 4! Don't mind me!