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alfdogg

alfdogg

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Not sure if anyone caught this before the draft but it was announced that a 75th anniversary team was going to be voted on and revealed at All-Star Weekend. From everything I've read up on it sounds like it's going to be a whole new list, as opposed to my fear that it would just be 25 guys tacked onto the initial list of 50. I've got a feeling there's gonna be a lot of angry boomers when this list is revealed because honestly about half this list could be players who peaked after 1997.

For fun I'm trying to come up with a list of 25 of my own, and once I get it down to about 33 or so I have trouble removing guys. And that's not even including guys like Nique and Bob McAdoo just to name a couple who were snubbed from the original list.

A couple guys I'm interested to see how they handle are Jokic and Derrick Rose. Without the MVPs I don't think either of these guys would get a look, but having that on their resumes it wouldn't surprise me to see them on, even though McAdoo was left off the 50 list.
 
Brooklyn Zoo

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Damn, even though it makes more sense, kind of fucked up to see some dudes get kicked off
 
alfdogg

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So I came up with a list of 25 from the last 25 years, using a similar metric to the one alkeiper used in the MLB thread. I used the stat VORP (value over replacement player), which can be multiplied by 2.7 to figure WAR, according to basketball-reference.com.

1. LeBron James (137.3)
2. Kevin Garnett (95.1)
3. Tim Duncan (91.1)
4. Chris Paul (89.7)
5. Dirk Nowitzki (84.8)
6. Kobe Bryant (80.1)
7. Kevin Durant (71.6)
8. Jason Kidd (68.4)
9. James Harden (68.1)
10. Paul Pierce (65.5)
11. Dwyane Wade (62.8)
12. Vince Carter (57.9)
13. Ray Allen (57.6)
14. Pau Gasol (57.5)
15. Stephen Curry (56.3)
16. Tracy McGrady (55.7)
17. Russell Westbrook (55.3)
18. Allen Iverson (49.7)
19. Steve Nash (48.2)
20T. Manu Ginobili (47.6)
"""": Shawn Marion (47.6)
22. Chauncey Billups (43.5)
23. Damian Lillard (42.6)
24. Gary Payton (42.1)
25. Andrei Kirilenko (41.7)

Looks like this metric favors a combination of high usage rate with team record and strong numbers across multiple categories (note that guys who are primarily scorers such as Carmelo Anthony and Joe Johnson aren't on the list). Longevity matters as well, as we'll see with the peaks list coming up (Jason Kidd, who ranks eighth here, doesn't even make it onto the list with his five-year peak).

I also excluded Shaq and Karl Malone, who were on this list, as they were already on the NBA at 50 list.

I should stress that this isn't MY list, but rather what the search engine spit out.
 
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alfdogg

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Here is your five-year peak list, with even more eye-popping omissions. I had to do this one longform, as the span finder engine doesn't seem to have an option to include advanced stats.

1. LeBron James (49.4)
2. Kevin Garnett (42.2)
3. James Harden (39.9)
4. Kevin Durant (37.0)
5. Stephen Curry (35.6)
6. Chris Paul (35.5)
7. Tracy McGrady (35.3)
8. Dirk Nowitzki (34.0)
9. Tim Duncan (33.3)
10. Russell Westbrook (32.8)
11T. Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.9)
""""" Dwyane Wade (31.9)
13. Nikola Jokic (31.4)
14. Kobe Bryant (31.2)
15. Damian Lillard (27.8)
16. Gary Payton (27.6)
17. Anthony Davis (26.6)
18. Shawn Marion (26.5)
19. Paul Pierce (25.4)
20. Jason Kidd (25.3)
21. Chauncey Billups (25.0)
22. Kawhi Leonard (24.2) (this includes 2018 in which he only played 9 games)
23. Andrei Kirilenko (24.0)
24. Vince Carter (23.3)
25T. Grant Hill (22.9)
""""" Elton Brand (22.9)

Since the list starts in 1997, I had to include 2001 as part of Hill's peak, where he only played in 4 games. His actual peak number is 28.3, which of course shoots him significantly up the list.

I was wrong about Kidd, as I guess he did sneak onto the list. But lots of other key names left off here, including Manu Ginobili, Allen Iverson, Ray Allen, Chris Webber, Steve Nash, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Ben Wallace and Carmelo Anthony. Just goes to show that there doesn't need to be a stat for everything and sometimes the eye test is necessary.
 
Mickey Massuco

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Not that I like it, but interested to see you break down why you don’t. There’s one name im pleasantly surprised to see him include LOL
 
cobainwasmurdered

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Chuck and Shaq yelling at each other when Shaq said he was the greatest Laker center ever and better than Wilt and Kareem was very fun, whatever my opinion on the merits of his argument (I WAS MORE DOMINANT was the extent).
 
Dandy

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Hal Greer (from YOUR Marshall University Thundering Herd!) remains on the list from the 50th Anniversary list. He also just had a pretty killer statue revealed/dedicated outside the Cam Henderson Center here in Huntington during the last football home game on 10/9.

www.google.com

Marshall University unveils new Hal Greer statue

Marshall University is once again celebrating the life of former athlete Hal Greer. In addition to having a street named after him, a statue has been made in his honor.
www.google.com
 
AA484

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I think they are looking at it with all eras considered equally. It may not be the right way to look at it but if you're trying to discover a method, that's probably what they are going for.
 
HarleyQuinn

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If Harden's made it, I have to think that Curry and Westbrook should also make it. The fact that Westbrook has averaged a triple-double for 4 seasons of his career is really underrated in how mind-blowing that is, especially in the modern age when players aren't playing 40+ MPG and handling the ball as much.
 
King Kamala

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I can't see any reason why Westbrook shouldn't make it if Harden has. Harden has one more conference finals appearance but he also has had better supporting casts over the years.
 
Dandy

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I don’t watch the NBA anymore but do follow relatively loosely on stats, big moments, etc. So I am familiar with the stars of the current era and their stats/level of play. But I’m not a big enough fan to check stats comparing different eras. Is there an NBA equivalent to MLB’s OPS+ stat that accounts for the changes in the league like this current era compared to the 80s for example?
 
HarleyQuinn

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Dandy said:
I don’t watch the NBA anymore but do follow relatively loosely on stats, big moments, etc. So I am familiar with the stars of the current era and their stats/level of play. But I’m not a big enough fan to check stats comparing different eras. Is there an NBA equivalent to MLB’s OPS+ stat that accounts for the changes in the league like this current era compared to the 80s for example?
Click to expand...
OPS+ is simple OBP/SLG * 100 and adjusted for the ballparks they play in. A better comparison may be to WAR but the NBA doesn't have a perfect 1-1 statistic like that. The closest stat comparisons...

PER = Play Efficiency Rating (per-minute production standardized to a league average of 15). This tends to be a pretty good judge but it's predicated also on a player's minutes (so a great player playing 12 minutes looks under utilized vs. a poor player playing 25)
Win Shares = Bill James Special
Box Plus/Minus = Box Score-esque points per 100 possessions above a "league average" player normalized to an average team
VORP = Another Baseball Special
 
Dandy

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I didn’t make myself clear regarding OPS+. Any given year of OPS+ lets you know how that player performed in relation to the rest of the league that year. So a 177 in 1962 versus a 177 in 1989 gives you a relative idea that those two performances were similar against their competition. Just as the NFL has become pass heavy and more QBs are throwing for previously high benchmarks, I was looking for an equivalent rating against the rest of the league for a given year. And I k ow WAR is WAR, but I do find the OPS+ number to be quick and easy like above where you can say “______ was 177% better than the average player that year.”
 
HarleyQuinn

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Dandy said:
I didn’t make myself clear regarding OPS+. Any given year of OPS+ lets you know how that player performed in relation to the rest of the league that year. So a 177 in 1962 versus a 177 in 1989 gives you a relative idea that those two performances were similar against their competition. Just as the NFL has become pass heavy and more QBs are throwing for previously high benchmarks, I was looking for an equivalent rating against the rest of the league for a given year. And I k ow WAR is WAR, but I do find the OPS+ number to be quick and easy like above where you can say “______ was 177% better than the average player that year.”
Click to expand...
The only stat that would fit would be ORating/DRating (Points Produced/Allowed per 100 Possessions) but it again kind of falls into that trap of PER, where minutes can matter too and it's estimated so it's not as pure a number like an OPS+.
 
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