Senate and House Races 2020

[HarleyQuinn]

Georgia's race to the right prompts GOP fears over holding Senate majority

She's cut an ad saying she's "more conservative than Attila the Hun." She's lashed out at the WNBA for its ties to Black Lives Matter. And she frequently promotes herself as having a "100 percent Trump voting record."

www.cnn.com

"And this week, Sen. Kelly Loeffler took her move to the right to a new level: Touting the endorsement of a controversial House candidate from Georgia who has promoted the QAnon conspiracy and had been denounced by other Republicans before winning the GOP nomination in her race for making bigoted and racist comments.

So to win the November election outright, a candidate must surpass 50% of the vote; if not, the top two candidates face off in a January runoff. Since it's unlikely that any candidate will reach the 50 percent threshold, both Collins and Loeffler have been competing intensely to make the runoff by wooing Republican voters and appealing to the conservative base, which represents a slice of the state's 6.9 million registered voters.

That has created an opening for the leading Democratic candidate, Rev. Raphael Warnock, who has been mostly unscathed amid the daily slugfest between Collins and Loeffler, and was rewarded with a Friday fundraiser led by former President Barack Obama.

In late September, a Quinnipiac University poll showed Warnock with 31%, Loeffler at 23%, and Collins at 22% among likely voters. In October, another Quinnipiac poll showed Warnock at 41%, Collins at 22%, and Loeffler at 20%.

But now, the Republican candidates are spending the last days of the Senate race as if they were running in a primary, trying to appeal to the hardcore members of their party -- like Greene.

While Warnock is the heavy favorite to make it to a runoff, some Democrats fear that Matt Lieberman, a Democratic candidate and son of former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, who has polled in the single digits, will siphon away enough support to prevent Warnock from winning in November outright."

 

[snuffbox]

Probably hoping for way too much but it'd sure be nice if both GA seats flip.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Cory Gardner, tied to Trump's 'vindictive' base, faces conundrum in Colorado

Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner has never had strong voter support in Larimer County. 2020's results may speak to the staying power of the 2018 blue wave.

www.coloradoan.com

"Hickenlooper is ahead of Gardner in all 12 Senate polls posted on FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker since July, and is ahead by at least 5% in 11.

The prediction is on par for a state President Donald Trump lost by about 5% in 2016, and a state that hasn’t given its electoral votes to a Republican since 2004.

But neither the ethics fiasco nor Gardner’s debate attacks have managed to put a dent in Hickenlooper’s polling performance. Two polls released Thursday showed him ahead of Gardner by 10 to 11 points.

As of Thursday night, about 21,500 people had returned ballots in Larimer County with more than 2 weeks to go before Election Day. That's close to 9% of active registered voters. More than 10,000 of the ballots already returned are from registered Democrats, another 7,600 are from unaffiliated voters — a population that leans left in Colorado — and 3,500 are from registered Republicans."

Even just assuming a 50/50 split on the unaffiliated (and assuming party line voting) that'd be 13,800 Blue votes against just 7,300 Red votes. Bump that to a 60-40 split and it's even more pronounced: 14,560 against 6,540.

 

[snuffbox]

That's promising. If the Americans can win there, NC, AZ, and Maine, they won't need any of the bigger upsets. But a few ladles of gravy on top would be good in case of Manchin-type votes and to get closer to 60 in 2022 (if still necessary).

 

[King Kamala]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1318602239888527360

 

[snuffbox]

Cook Report shifts 12 House races, all but one toward Democrats

The Cook Political Report on Wednesday updated its analyses of a dozen House races, shifting all but one more in favor of Democrats as the party looks to expand its majority in the chamber.Ill…

thehill.com

Some good news about possibly running up the score in the House.

 

[King Kamala]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319239577874280450

 

[snuffbox]

Sen Graham is calling for an investigation into the contributions to Harrison's campaign. So I just made my third small donation to Harrison.

 

[snuffbox]

Mitch McConnell's Hand Is Discolored But He Swears Nothing Is Wrong

Viral photos show McConnell picking up a face mask, revealing his right hand to be much darker than the rest of his body, as well as a bandaged thumb.

www.buzzfeednews.com

Did the Majority Leader get a bad batch of regeneron?

 

[Mickey Massuco]

Sen Graham is calling for an investigation into the contributions to Harrison's campaign. So I just made my third small donation to Harrison.

let us know when those republithugs knock on your door

 

[SFH]

Mitch McConnell's Hand Is Discolored But He Swears Nothing Is Wrong

Viral photos show McConnell picking up a face mask, revealing his right hand to be much darker than the rest of his body, as well as a bandaged thumb.

www.buzzfeednews.com

Did the Majority Leader get a bad batch of regeneron?

I don't know what you'd have to do to get gravity bruising in your hands, but I've had gravity bruising from my waist down before and it's the same skin tone he's rocking in those photos and it looks gross and scary as hell if you're not warned beforehand. That said, it was from my femoral artery being cut in my case, I don't know if the aorta (in his case) would send bruising to the hands.

 

[King Kamala]

Susan Collins Hasn’t Changed Much, but Maine Has (Published 2020)

Democrats are angry with her. Republicans see her as disloyal to the president. Her old-fashioned politics? “I don’t know if people respond as well to that anymore,” said her G.O.P. predecessor in the Senate.

www.nytimes.com

Good look at Susan Collins' concerning reelection chances.

I had forgotten the '08 US Senate race and the parallels between this race. Tom Allen was my congressman and was extremely popular in Southern Maine and probably would still have that job today. It seemed like it was going to be a close swing race but Collins was so popular that DNC threw in the towel almost right away. How times change!

 

[BruiserBrody]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319793831232086016

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Minnesota Senate Race Suddenly Tight, Up For Grabs

"A KTSP/SurveyUSA poll released on Wednesday showed Lewis and Smith in a virtual tie (43% to 42%). According to 5 Eyewitness News, suburban women -- a key and often-watched demographic -- have helped drive the shift by leaving Smith."

 

[snuffbox]

At a fundraiser with Nevada elites a couple days ago, the president predicted that his party will lose the senate but, somehow, win back the House.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Mitch again says the quiet part out loud:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320420444810350594

 

[snuffbox]

I still hope he'd lose even if his opponent is many miles from perfect.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip, one week from Election Day

The Senate majority is firmly within Democrats' reach with just a week to go until Election Day.

www.cnn.com

"Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to win the chamber if Biden loses. Assuming Democrats lose Alabama -- which CNN has consistently ranked the seat most likely to flip this year -- they need to flip five other seats. But if Biden wins the presidency, they need a net gain of only three since the vice president breaks ties in the Senate. Again, assuming they lose Alabama, Democrats would need to flip four seats.

In Kansas, for example, Trump was leading by just 7 points -- down from his 21-point margin in 2016 -- and GOP Rep. Roger Marshall was ahead by only 4 in a New York Times/Siena College poll from last week.

Public polling, at least, seems to bear out Cunningham's bet that voters don't much care about his personal scandal. He led Tillis by 49% to 43% among likely voters in a CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday ... A Washington Post/ABC News poll from mid-October showed no clear leader, but 71% of registered voters said Cunningham's affair was less important, while 81% said who controls the Senate was more important to them."

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1321603398752415746

"It's not that you're just a crook..."

Fucking BODIED!

 

[King Kamala]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1321652221239611393

Systemic racism is one of only things Sue isn’t “very concerned “ about.

 

[snuffbox]

Hopefully both of the above Trumpers lose. Georgia seems to look a little better every day; there is some room for hope there. And maybe this is the year Mainers realize that Collins is not independent, not strong, and doesn't give a shit about the people of her state.

GOP is now starting to pin their senate hopes on somehow flipping seats in Michigan or Minnesota. I don't think either will happen. They're trying to rest their hopes on "riots" in Minnesota; that'd have a better chance for them across the river (and they're trying it here). I hope I'm right about that, I hope that stuff doesn't work anywhere. I think it's more likely that the Dems flip 7 or 8 seats than it is that the Trumps flip Michigan or MN.

 

[RedJed]

Being from MN myself, I'm kind of concerned about the trend I've seen in rural southern Minnesota. This has always reeked tones of conservative Iowans down near this area since we are relatively close to the border here, but I've seen more bent out of shape rural folks than ever before, all thanks to this projection bullshit from Trump. A real doozy of a US rep, Jim Hagedorn, also peddles more nonsense than I've ever seen a GOPer do around this area (and go figure, he's been exposed for campaign violations a-plenty, including a payoff to a local radio DJ who gaslit people for months before he was finally kicked off the air for accepting ALMOST A MILLION DOLLARS from the Hagedorn campaign), and I think to a degree it's been effective as the po-dunk living inside a bubble folks who havent nor will not have much interactions with other cultures have been convinced this state has gone full on enabling anarchy and the rule of blacks/muslims or something. Oh and Gov. Walz is Hitler apparently. As I drive through rural areas here, its Trump madness with the flags out and even lots of tractor equipment being dolled out on display in Trump shit. There also has certainly been an upsurge in your typical redneck big wheel loud muffler vehicles with Trump/Don't Tread on Me/Merica flags and merch. Both in town here and outside the area. Don't see it as much in the Twin Cities, but damn near everywhere else south of there.

So with that said, will rural Minnesota have an impact on the election? Hard to say but I'm not as confident as I should be on the outcome here. I will say one thing, the process of voting ahead of time here has been smooth as silk and there doesn't appear to be any forthcoming controversy in votes being manipulated, etc, here locally. But I am concerned that this state might get flipped.

 

[909]

The one thing to remind yourself about rural America as far as the presidential election and statewide elections is that in most states...there are way less votes there than in the rest of the state. I can drive down a road in rural CA and see a Trump sign in front of almost every house. Let's say there's twenty houses on the road. That's most likely between 40-60 voters and the town is about 11,000 people. I can outdo that amount simply based on people a very short radius from where I live.

The disconnect between rural and urban/suburban America is wild. About 60,000,000 people live in what the government describes as a rural area. I think the vast majority of eligible voters in those areas go to vote. If urban and suburban turnout was similar that would be the end of rural America dictating their ways over almost all of the rest of the country.

 

[snuffbox]

After his opponent spoke bluntly of his insider trading while publicly downplaying covid, Sen Purdue has quit the final debate in GA like a bitch.

 

[909]

After his opponent spoke bluntly of his insider trading while publicly downplaying covid, Sen Purdue has quit the final debate in GA like a bitch.

You don't do that when you think you're gonna win. Not sure Ossoff can get to 50% to avoid the runoff though.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

You don't do that when you think you're gonna win. Not sure Ossoff can get to 50% to avoid the runoff though.

Wrong race: Ossoff and Purdue are going head-to-head.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

And because every takedown is better with the "Ether" beat:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1321819117008113667

 

[909]

Wrong race: Ossoff and Purdue are going head-to-head.

As stupid as this sounds, if neither get over 50% there will be a runoff even though they're currently facing each other. I had to check to make sure.

 

[King Kamala]

Commentary: How my former boss Susan Collins broke my heart – and lost my support

I shared my rape story with her. Then she announced her support for Brett Kavanaugh – in a speech that felt like a slap in the face.

www.pressherald.com

This is a pretty damning op ed from a former Susan Collins staffer.

 

[snuffbox]

Yes, both GA races have the runoff caveat. Hopefully Ossoff gets the 50+.