The Ten Year Deal

[Baby Shoes]

With Patrick Mahomes getting his record setting deal, every sports source I turn to is talking about the deal and who would deserve it in each sport.

Figure this is a catch all thread for people to argue for or against someone getting a ten year deal, hypothetically.

Football, I can’t think of many more than Mahomes or Jackson at this point. If I had to pick one, Mahomes has had one more season and a Super Bowl, I guess.

Basketball is tricky. While Zion and Doncic look to be special talents, I worry about what they will look like in ten years. There is a high chance this post looks foolish down the line but Zion has only played 13 games. We have to see how his body holds up that he doesn’t become another case like Greg Oden who had ability but could not stay on the floor. Doncic is not super athletic already and while he is going to be very good for years and will only be 30 in ten years, guys with his build don’t always hold up that long. I honestly would probably lean more toward Giannis, who despite being around since 2013, I could see being Lebron-like in still being a threat in Year 17.

Baseball has Trout already in the obvious contract and tends to get plenty of guys who don’t deserve it get these contacts.

Whatever sport you want to discuss, who would you get behind or avoid getting on of these giant contracts.

 

[alfdogg]

Giannis was the first guy that came to mind for me, as well. Zion is probably the other closest guy. I don't quite have the same concerns with him wrt Greg Oden in the current era of load management.

 

[King Kamala]

I'm kind of surprised that the 10 year deals are still a thing. there are so many variables that can happen in a decade. I mean it's probably a necessary evil with mega stars thanks to players unions and agents but I can't imagine the percentage of 10 year deals that ended up being well worth it is very high.

 

[Brooklyn Zoo]

Mahomes might be the only one. Jackson runs too much, Zion already has knee problems, and Doncic became a pro at like 14.

The only players I’d consider are young baseball all stars like Acuña and Soto

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Longest I'd do is like 6-7 years.

Even if you think about a guy like Brady... say you give him a 10 year deal after the 2004 Season when he wins his 3rd Super Bowl in 4 years. Boom, then comes 2008 and he misses the entire season. What happens if he came back and was awful or suffered another season ending injury? You basically have paid him mega money for just 3 years and are still on the hook for 2008 & 2009. At best you'd have been able to maybe get out of it with an injury settlement or something.

Peyton had the neck injury at age 34, was able to eke out a few more seasons in Denver then was done. Say they gave Peyton a 10 year deal after 2001, the Colts would've gotten 9 years out Peyton in that time (ignoring the team salary cap in general and the fact they would not have been able to keep Harrison/Wayne/Edge for as long as they did).

Rodgers is constantly getting dinged up and Green Bay will have gotten 13 years from him if Rodgers (and the NFL) go through with the 2020 NFL Season. And Aaron's still gonna be 37 years old.

The one thing I come back to is when the Texas Rangers signed an in his prime Alex Rodriguez, who was just 25 years old entering 2001 to a 10 year $250 Million deal. He plays just 3 years for Texas then got traded to the New York Yankees where he spent 12 seasons with them.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

If I had to absolutely bite the bullet and give it to one player in each sport...

NFL: I'd actually go with Joey Bosa of the Chargers. DEs are incredibly valuable and it's hard to find an elite pass rusher you can hold onto for more than 5+ seasons. Bosa's also proven himself and could be a cheaper lynchpin for the Chargers defense to build around while being possible playoff contenders year in & year out.

MLB: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Plays in the AL, massive size, you can stick him at 1B/DH as his career winds down. Probably the easier sport to do this with IMO thanks to the DH position.

NBA: Trae Young. Doesn't play a demanding position compared to the physicality of say a PF or Center. Can score a ton and be a facilitator so as he gets older, he can transition to being more of a passer than a pure scorer giving a team a chance to get pieces around him.

NHL: Connor McDavid. The next potential superstar since Sidney Crosby and should easily be its most marketable player. Probably the riskiest sport to do this with simply due to the injury factor, more so than the NFL IMO.

 

[King Kamala]

In the NBA, I think a player needs to be 4 or 5 seasons into their career to decide whether or not they're really worth saddling with a huge 7-8+ year contract. Yeah, I could see wanting to pin your hopes on Trae Young rn but there's really no way of knowing that he won't turn into a "me first" Devin Booker type player (sorry @Baby Shoes )

 

[Baby Shoes]

I have a hard time on long term deals in football because injuries are just waiting to happen, more than any other sport. Good on players for getting paid but it is so much easier to get derailed fast.

I kinda floated Trae as a second tier guy if you saw him turning into a Steph Curry because he has less flags and injuries as Zion or Luca. Of the current young guys I also like Ja Morant and am curious how he develops, though I said in the card collecting thread I can see him having a similar trajectory to Lillard, which isn’t bad.

No offense on the Booker stuff but I don’t really see him as a “me first” guy. I think if he gets that rep it is mainly because he has had to carry the load. This was the first year since he’s been in the league he has had anything close to a real team around him and it still got screwed up with suspensions and injuries necessitating him to carry the load.

 

[alkeiper]

Is Patrick Mahomes' contract REALLY a ten year contract? NFL doesn't have full guaranteed contracts, you can cut players. A breakdown I read says $141 million is guaranteed, which means seven years are essentially team options. Christ, I'd lock up anybody under 30 in MLB under those terms.

I'm kind of surprised that the 10 year deals are still a thing. there are so many variables that can happen in a decade. I mean it's probably a necessary evil with mega stars thanks to players unions and agents but I can't imagine the percentage of 10 year deals that ended up being well worth it is very high.

A lot of people think Bryce Harper's 13 year contract is a little crazy. But what they really did is decide on a lump contract amount and worked out the years. You're overpaying for production on the front end and spreading out the payments on the back end. Mahomes "earned" $141 million when he signed that contract. He "earns" $31 million every year gets paid $45.

For MLB players I'd go Trout, Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, Alex Bregman, Francisco Lindor, Cody Bellinger, Machado, Trea Turner, Francisco Tatis Jr. Ronald Acuna, center fielder goes 40/40 at the age of 21? Damn straight I'd take him for a decade. Any star under the age of 25/26 is worth locking up. Because the fact is you can go 20 years and you won't find another player like that through your farm system.

 

[alkeiper]

The one thing I come back to is when the Texas Rangers signed an in his prime Alex Rodriguez, who was just 25 years old entering 2001 to a 10 year $250 Million deal. He plays just 3 years for Texas then got traded to the New York Yankees where he spent 12 seasons with them.

The original contract ran from 2001-10. Over that time Rodriguez hit .299 (four hits shy of .300 in a decade) averaging 42 home runs and 124 RBIs. Given that production he probably opts out after 2007 giving him a seven year average of .304/47/130. With three MVPs, but a lot of those awards is team dependent so who knows how that plays out. The A-Rod Rangers were a good hitting team but their pitching/defense was awful. I could see an argument for mis-managed resources but that was a GREAT contract.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

In 2020? Antetokuonmpo and Doncic are the only NBA players I make that offer to. In the WNBA, I'd give Breanna Stewart ten years.

I don't follow any other team sports well enough to know who's considered that kind of good.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

I think the issue with the A-Rod contract is that Texas opted for the length and money, which people at the time thought was a little extreme but if anybody was gonna be worth it, it was going to be him. Production wise, it paid off but Texas only got 3 years of production while the Yankees got 7, so it's a cost/reward scenario. For the Yankees, it was well worth taking on the contract but Texas basically doled out a 3 Year deal for $66 Million for A-Rod's services.

For comparison's sake
- Texas pays A-Rod for 3 Years at $66.0 Million. Traded to the Yankees.
- Yankees had Derek Jeter for $42.8 Million over that same span.
- Red Sox had Nomar for $27.25 Million over that same span. Gets paid $11.5 in 2004, traded to Chicago Cubs.

I'm looking at it more as mis-managed resources from the Rangers perspective. They had a guy in his prime who had won 2 GG and 1 MVP. They were paying him an insane amount of money whilst getting the best possible ROI they could get from an individual performance perspective. Then they traded him away... For A-Rod, that deal was fantastic and even the Yankees reaped a lot of benefits but the Rangers screwed themselves hard over the long-term.