Would you take Trevor Lawrence or trade the pick for a big haul? Jets Edition

[Mickey Massuco]

Talking about this in the chat, I guess this question is getting at what your philosophy would be as an NFL GM.

Lawrence is about as hyped a QB prospect as there is. With that being said, if the Jets had that pick I would trade it. The best prospect can go into a bad system and bust out. The amount of picks you'd get for trading #1 would be obscene and you could change your franchise around immediately. Plus, I think Darnold still has a shot in a legit situation. I also feel like historically the teams that get the shitload of picks in those deals end up better off.

I think this will bring out some interesting opinions. I think I would be one of the few that would trade the pick but I'd like to hear what others think.

EDIT: I called him Justin because I confused him with the karate specialist justin lawrence and now i can't edit the poll you know what i mean fam

 

[Baby Shoes]

I take Justin but legit take the Karate Man Justin that was cited in error

 

[Aero]

I can definitely understand the appeal of taking a ransom of picks, but for me, I tend to think that a GM shouldn't overthink the chance to draft the generational prospect, at the most important position on the field. If Lawrence truly is the talent that most evaluators believe him to be, then trust him to develop with the few nice pieces they have from last year, and then supplement with a few more in FA (Jets will have top 3 cap space). The latter has worked well for the Bills. It remains to be seen if the Bears lock up Allen Robinson prior to FA, but if they don't, the Jets should pay him what it takes.

Now, strictly from the perspective of a fan of the team that has had little stability at the position in my lifetime, I'd be pretty frustrated if they passed on Lawrence in favor of sticking with Darnold, who has only showed flashes, with admittedly not much surrounding talent at times. I think there's a good chance he can be salvaged with a new coach and system, but why take that chance when Lawrence and a fresh rookie contract is right in front of you?

Unfortunately, this is all moot, as today, the dream is officially dead, and Trevor Lawrence will be a Jaguar.

 

[Krankor]

The Jags already have a lot of picks in the 2021 draft.

Rams 1st, Vikings 2nd, Rams 4th, Browns & Rams 5th, Titans 7th. That's quite a few picks to go with their own picks.

The Jaguars Defense is all sorts of bad, but I'd think they would need to consider taking some shots at drafting some offensive lineman to protect Lawrence. The Jaguars offense could be sneakily good by mid-season when everyone clicks. They probably wouldn't need consider a RB until either Round 3 or 4 if they don't plan on signing a veteran. James Robinson is good, but they have zero depth after him. I'd expect them to probably sign a veteran wide receiver in the off season as well. Cole & Conley both will be free agents. It's tempting to draft another WR to go with Chark & Shenault, but I think a veteran familiar with whatever the new coaching staff's offense is will be the best way to go for 2021.

Had the Jets not won a few games and been in the running for Lawrence, I'd say they should draft him as well. Regardless of talent and coaching, Darnold is done there. He needs a full change of environment to have a chance at developing. It would have benefited the Jets more to start fresh with Lawrence and trade Darnold for draft picks.

There are so many teams that will be looking for a QB in the off-season. Even with Darnold being butt, his market is still good enough that he could net a team a late 1st or an early 2nd round pick.

Now, the question is if you are the Jets:
Do you take Justin Fields and trade Darnold?
Do you trade the 2nd pick and roll with Darnold?
Do you trade Darnold, trade the 2nd pick, and bring in an over-priced veteran via free agency or trade? (Wentz, Dak, etc)

 

[SFH]

2006 draft my team "lucked" into the Texans drafting Mario Williams and letting Reggie Bush fall to us. Make no mistake about it, I cherish the time we had with Reggie. I still have a massive shit load of Reggie stuff in my hobby collections between a jersey, trading cards, and figures. That man was an absolute class act and his first act of generosity once he got that rookie contract was to do charitable things to the New Orleans area.

All that said, I still think we should have traded #2 for more picks in the first round. It was postulated (never proven) that we could have gotten both of the Jets Round ones in 2006 ( they took Ferguson and Mangold). Those were generational talents at their positions and as much as I love Reggie Bush the person, I think the two Jets picks were better at their positions than Reggie was at NFL running backing. All three played ten years and I think (Super Bowl aside) the Jets got better production out of their linemen than the Saints did out of Reggie Bush. I think we could have won the Super Bowl without Reggie and probably had a better statistical run had Mangold and Ferguson been blocking for the guys we did have. All of this is just my opinion and conjecture. Also, assuming we still picked up Jahri Evans in round 4 and Zach Strief in Round 7, that would have been an offensive line unlike any other, ever.

With all of that vomited out, I would not fault the team with the #1 pick, Jets or Jags, if they drafted Trevor Lawrence nor if they traded the pick for more. I am in the camp that thinks Sam Darnold could still succeed with the right pieces around him. I'm fortunate that I'm not a GM and don't have to live with the good and bad decisions teams make. I don't know enough about the OTHER picks that someone could take if they did trade out of #1.

Further, there are still many many examples of top 3 players that were supposed to be epic, and were not. I was sooooo sure Joey Harrington was going to be a legend in Detroit. Uh, yeah... don't look to me for competent analysis.

 

[Mickey Massuco]

Now, the question is if you are the Jets:
Do you take Justin Fields and trade Darnold?
Do you trade the 2nd pick and roll with Darnold?
Do you trade Darnold, trade the 2nd pick, and bring in an over-priced veteran via free agency or trade? (Wentz, Dak, etc)

I don't know much about Fields, but a lot of chatters seem to feel like he's gonna be a bust as there are too many factors working against him.

 

[Gert]

If you are the Jags, you take Lawrence 100 times out of 100. If he is the guy that your scouting department believes is the best player in the draft and can be a Top 10 or better QB in the league you do it.

Joe Burrow is always going to have issues with the deep ball, and how he will improve after his ACL tear is scary, but I can tell you even watching him play 9 games it was easy to tell he could make plays and passes that Andy Dalton could not make ever.

If you are the Jets, I think you have to trust your GM & scouts. If you think Fields can be that Top 10 or better guy, take him, but if you aren't sure I think they should look into trading the pick. It sucks for them a little bit because Cincy, Chargers, Dolphins are teams that won't be moving up for QB's so it limits the market and I think you have to be careful not to move too far down in the 1st Round because you want to still get an impact player.

 

[Aero]

If you are the Jets, I think you have to trust your GM & scouts. If you think Fields can be that Top 10 or better guy, take him, but if you aren't sure I think they should look into trading the pick. It sucks for them a little bit because Cincy, Chargers, Dolphins are teams that won't be moving up for QB's so it limits the market and I think you have to be careful not to move too far down in the 1st Round because you want to still get an impact player.

On the Jets picking #2, the bold part above is pretty much where I fall. My initial reaction last week was to stick with Darnold and try to trade back a few spots or even take Sewell as BZ suggested, and I still mostly lean toward either option. But if Joe Douglas believes picking Fields or rising Zach Wilson is the right move, in line with whoever the new coach is, then he should pull the trigger. As poor as the Jets draft history over the last decade has been, you have to trust that Douglas knows what he's doing, and his first draft has looked promising despite the abysmal season.

In some ways, this is similar to the Cardinals two years ago with Rosen and Kingsbury. Presumably Kingsbury was given the option of sticking with Rosen or drafting Murray at #1. For the Jets, a key topic for any new coach should be Darnold versus new QB at #2.

 

[909]

Yeah I would be taking Justin Fields. This game answered that question.

 

[Brooklyn Zoo]

Going through progressions and zipping the ball all over the field

 

[909]

These two QB's are also way more equal than the media wants you to believe

 

[Gert]

These two QB's are also way more equal than the media wants you to believe

I agree with this, and part of it is certainly that Lawrence most likely would have been the #1 pick in the NFL Draft the last two years so almost anything he did wouldn't be judged fairly either way. I don't think Dabo's play calling did him any favors either. Ohio State knew all those RPO's were going to Etienne so it was more about getting the side or lane he was handing off to.

For Fields, GOD DAMN those deep balls looked great tonight. I'm concerned about what he does passing when he has to improvise, and that's more from a body of work than tonight obviously.

I think another interesting subplot now has to be what Miami thinks about Fields or Wilson since it looks like they could be picking 3rd. If Chase and Smith are considered top 3-10 BPA's in the draft they may also be in a great spot to trade down, because I don't anticipate Atlanta or Cincinnati going with a WR.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

I'm still a believer in Darnold's ability but I think it's another Rosen situation where he should be dealt elsewhere for picks and the new Jets regime moves on with their own QB of the future.

The QB draft market is limited but Atlanta, Detroit, and Carolina are teams worth keeping an eye on that may have high picks (thinking Zach Wilson here probably but that's all pre-deep dive research). Matt Ryan has an out in 2022 and Stafford has an out in 2021. Bridgewater signed a 3 year deal but I'm not sold that Matt Rhule doesn't want his own QB of the future in Carolina, especially if they can get a legitimate 1st Round talent.

 

[MFer]

I still think Jacksonville is going to end up taking Lawrence if for no other reason than self-preservation. If he flops, they can just go "hey, everyone said he was the best QB prospect in nearly a decade, what else could we do?!".

 

[909]

Yeah I would be taking Justin Fields. This game answered that question.

Bump

 

[King Kamala]

Do you think Trevor Lawrence or CM Punk has given Tony Khan more aggravation?