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Offline alkeiper

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MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« on: November 05, 2018, 07:17:43 AM »
Hoping Lou Whitaker gets in next. Been a long time coming for him IMO.
Whitaker has to wait at least two years. Next year is the group of players 1988 and later. That ballot is probably going to be a waste of everyone's time as certain Hall directors have made it clear they don't want steroid users in.
When I thought about the 1988-later ballot I was thinking players. I expect Jim Leyland may get inducted, and Dusty Baker would be a candidate as well. I don't know if they would vote on a still active Bruce Bochy, but he has probably reached future HOF status.

Turns out not Baker or Leyland on the ballot, but Lou Pinella is as well as Charlie Manuel

https://baseballhall.org/todays-game-era-ballot-2019

Full ballot of ten:
Harold Baines
Albert Belle
Joe Carter
Will Clark
Orel Hershiser
Davey Johnson
Charlie Manuel
Lou Piniella
Lee Smith
George Steinbrenner

I love Manuel, but his is not a Hall of Fame resume. Piniella is 16th in career wins between Baker and Leyland. All three are close to HOF caliber, but not much separates them. Piniella has the world series win and Baker doesn't, but Leyland has three pennants. Baker has the highest career winning percentage of the group.

Players and Steinbrenner I'll talk about later.

Offline Harley Quinn

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2018, 07:55:53 AM »
Harold Baines & Will Clark were always in the Hall of Very Good for me but Clark has a much stronger argument IMO. Joe Carter's very overrated IMO (and has a career 105 OPS+ which is awful for a "slugger" of his era). Albert Belle's a guy who intrigues me in that he only played 10 seasons due to injury but was legitimately one of the best hitters of that period. I wouldn't mind seeing him go in but I don't know if he has quite the longevity/total numbers to make it happen.

Orel Hershiser is also a worthwhile candidate although he's a bit borderline (mostly due to largely a 5 year gap in the middle of his career where he went just 36-38 while battling injuries). Lee Smith was a very good closer but his ERA+ seems (to me) on the lower end of what an elite closer should have and I think a guy like Billy Wagner blows him out of the water.

Player Wise: I'd go Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser, and Will Clark as a distant 3rd Place.
Manager Wise: I'd go with Davey Johnson more for the higher win percentage. Lou's great and worthy too but I feel like some of his Seattle teams underachieved given the talent on those squads and for how long he managed there.

Steinbrenner's an obvious shoo-in for me.

Offline alkeiper

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2018, 02:31:19 AM »
The veterans' committee last voted on this group two years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baseball_Hall_of_Fame_balloting,_2017

From that group of ten they elected Selig and Schuerholz and dropped Mark McGwire from the ballot. Seven of the ten are back. Of those seven, only Lou Piniella received more than four votes out of sixteen. Reading the tea leaves, I could see Piniella getting elevated to the Hall. I doubt Belle, Hershiser, Clark, Johnson, Steinbrenner or Baines will get a significant boost. New candidates:

Lee Smith: The saves. All the saves. Closers are difficult to gauge because standards are constantly evolving. Smith's strength is his longevity. He was an effective reliever in the early '80s and in the mid '90s. He has a higher career WAR than Hoffman, Fingers or Sutter. He's probably the best relief pitcher not yet in the Hall of Fame. I wouldn't begrudge a vote for Smith, with the caveat that there are many good candidates from this era not on the ballot.

Joe Carter: I don't want to pretend Joe Carter was a bad player. He was a terrific power/speed combination and hit one of the biggest home runs in baseball history. 396 home runs is a great total. But Jim Edmonds hit 393 with eight gold gloves and he's not in. Dale Murphy hit 398 with five GG's and he's still out. Graig Nettles hit 390 and won two. I don't see how a single great home run elevates Carter over those guys.

Charlie Manuel: 64th in career wins, one World Series win, two pennants. The only way you get him close is if you give him pioneer credit for playing in Japan.

As far as Steinbrenner, that one is going to be controversial. As I noted he got less than five votes two years ago so I don't think his election is as assured as people think. I doubt he gets in. I don't want him in. But I wanted to take a reasonably scientific approach. I looked through the Hall of Famers for people elected as "pioneer/executive," whose primary role would have been owner. Not a general manager, league president, or someone like Charles Comiskey who started as a player and grew into ownership. I came up with nine names.

-Jacob Ruppert (owned the Yankees in the Ruth era)
-Walter O'Malley (owned the Dodgers and moved them to Los Angeles)
-Barney Dreyfuss (owned the Pirates at the beginning of the 20th century)
-J.L. Wilkinson (owned the Kansas City Monarchs)
-Cumberland Posey (owned the Homestead Grays)
-Alex Pompez (owned the New York Cuban Stars)
-Effa Manley (co-owned the Newark Eagles)
-Bill Veeck (owned the Cleveland Indians, St. Louis Browns and Chicago White Sox at various times)
-Tom Yawkey (owned the Boston Red Sox)

That's really not a long list. Take out the negro league owners and you're left with Ruppert, O'Malley, Dreyfuss, Veeck and Yawkey. There's no real standard for owners getting in by winning pennants. It is clear that in order to get in you need to make a contribution beyond your team, but I'd be hard pressed to really come up with a common theme among those owners. What is Steinbrenner's argument? You could say free agency but Marvin Miller had more to do with that and he's not in. I don't really see an argument that would force me to support Steinbrenner.

Offline pujoljunkie

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2018, 04:08:05 AM »
Marvin Miller isn't in the hall? That's a huge oversight.

Offline alkeiper

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2018, 07:18:28 AM »
Marvin Miller isn't in the hall? That's a huge oversight.
He's been up for election a few times, but the voting committees tend to include former executives who aren't inclined to induct Miller. Politicized bullshit really.

Offline Harley Quinn

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2018, 04:06:53 AM »
Harley's Early 10 Ballot Vote
01: Barry Bonds - 2,900+ Hits, 762 HR, 182 OPS+, and a 162.8 WAR. Obvious.
02: Roger Clemens - 354 Wins, 143 ERA+, 139.6 WAR. Obvious #2.
03: Mariano Rivera - 652 Saves, 205 ERA+, and a 0.70 ERA in the post-season. Obvious #3.
04: Mike Mussina - 270 Wins, 123 ERA+, Won 7 Gold Gloves.
05: Scott Rolen - Over 2,000 Hits and almost 1,300 RBI despite injuries. 122 OPS+ and 8 Gold Gloves
06: Manny Ramirez - Over 1,500 Runs & 2,500 Hits. 555 HR. 154 OPS+ and 69.4 WAR despite marginal fielding ability.
07: Edgar Martinez - 68.4 WAR despite mostly being a DH. Over 1,200 Runs & 1,200 RBI with a 147 OPS+
08: EDIT Andy Pettitte - 256 Wins and 60.3 WAR. 117 ERA+ is only so-so but was 19-11 in the post-season for his career. Roy Halladay - Over 200 Wins, 2 Cy Youngs, and a 131 ERA+. Had a crazy 148 ERA+ from 2002-2011.
09: Curt Schilling - 216 Wins, 79.6 WAR, and his 2004 Boston post-season performance is legendary.
10: Larry Walker - Over 2,000 Hits and almost 400 HR. Won 7 Gold Gloves which pushed him ahead of Sheffield & Sosa for me.

Just Missed: Andy Pettitte, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner, and Fred McGriff. Sosa, I think, doesn't really get the credit he deserves as a hitter (even taking into account the whole PED stuff).

Andruw Jones I just can't get behind (Didn't reach 2,000 Hits and 111 OPS+) as far as how to weigh his glove vs. his bat when there are other candidates with better hitting numbers with similar profiles e.g. Rolen and Walker. Omar Vizquel is in the same area but his low WAR and 82 OPS+ just don't balance enough his glove in my book especially in the era he hit in.

Offline alkeiper

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2018, 04:39:24 AM »
What about Roy Halladay?

Offline Harley Quinn

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2018, 06:37:09 AM »
What about Roy Halladay?

Shit. Forgot about Halladay. Put him in Pettitte's place.

Pettitte deserves more love for a guy who won 256 games but he basically only had 2 dominant years (per ERA+) and was never really a big strikeout guy so his ERA was usually high as a result. From 1996-2002 he won 160 games but had a lackluster 122 ERA+ over that period.

Worth noting that Mike Mussina had a 114 ERA+ in his career with the Yankees despite garnering 123 Wins. Pettitte had 219 Wins but a 115 ERA+.

Offline alkeiper

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2018, 07:06:20 AM »
The Mussina stat I would throw out is that while his .631 winning percentage with the Yankees was great, his winning percentage with the Orioles was even higher (.645).

People will say Mussina wasn't a dominant pitcher. Mussina pitched four games in the 1997 postseason. He struck out 41 batters and allowed just eleven hits over 29 innings. The latter two starts he was utterly dominant against one of baseball's all time great offenses. It's strange to me that people forget that Mussina was a truly excellent pitcher in his prime.

Offline Smues

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2018, 07:15:52 AM »
Mussina absolutely should be in and I laugh my ass off every day that he is not.
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Offline Harley Quinn

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2018, 02:47:24 AM »
The Mussina stat I would throw out is that while his .631 winning percentage with the Yankees was great, his winning percentage with the Orioles was even higher (.645).

People will say Mussina wasn't a dominant pitcher. Mussina pitched four games in the 1997 postseason. He struck out 41 batters and allowed just eleven hits over 29 innings. The latter two starts he was utterly dominant against one of baseball's all time great offenses. It's strange to me that people forget that Mussina was a truly excellent pitcher in his prime.

A lot of it is that he was never really "dominant" with just an ERA+ of 130 from 1992-2001 (160-87 Record). While a great strikeout pitcher, he wasn't dominant there in the vein of a Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, or Curt Schilling so that aspect of his pitching tends to get underrated quite a bit.

It's worth noting that his top 2 comps are Andy Pettitte and C.C. Sabbathia, both somewhat borderline cases for the Hall of Fame. Juan Marichal and Bartolo Colon (another borderline case) follow.

Offline Harley Quinn

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2018, 03:13:51 AM »
I think it's interesting to compare the following

Sammy Sosa: 1 MVP & 6 SS - 2,408 Hits - 609 HR - 128 OPS+ (1994-2003 saw a 145 OPS+ with 469 HR) - 58.6 WAR - +104 TZRAA in RF
Gary Sheffield: 5 SS - 2,689 Hits - 509 HR - 140 OPS+ (1992-2005 saw a 153 OPS+ with 428 HR) - 60.5 WAR - -73 TZRAA in RF, -39 in LF
Fred McGriff: 3 SS - 2,490 Hits - 493 HR - 134 OPS+ (1988-2002 saw a 137 OPS+ with 458 HR) - 52.6 WAR - -32 TZRAA in 1B

Worth highlighting that Larry Walker is given +86 TZ at Fan Graphs and Sammy Sosa is a +110 at RF in TZ. Walker's GG and his career OPS+ still gives him a nod on my ballot but Sammy Sosa is really, really close to deserving a spot.

Offline alkeiper

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2018, 04:44:34 AM »
The Mussina stat I would throw out is that while his .631 winning percentage with the Yankees was great, his winning percentage with the Orioles was even higher (.645).

People will say Mussina wasn't a dominant pitcher. Mussina pitched four games in the 1997 postseason. He struck out 41 batters and allowed just eleven hits over 29 innings. The latter two starts he was utterly dominant against one of baseball's all time great offenses. It's strange to me that people forget that Mussina was a truly excellent pitcher in his prime.

A lot of it is that he was never really "dominant" with just an ERA+ of 130 from 1992-2001 (160-87 Record). While a great strikeout pitcher, he wasn't dominant there in the vein of a Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, or Curt Schilling so that aspect of his pitching tends to get underrated quite a bit.

It's worth noting that his top 2 comps are Andy Pettitte and C.C. Sabbathia, both somewhat borderline cases for the Hall of Fame. Juan Marichal and Bartolo Colon (another borderline case) follow.
I think saying 130 isn't dominant undersells things a bit. No one would doubt Steve Carlton as a Hall of Famer, but you can't find a ten year stretch where he topped 130. I wouldn't put Mussina in the inner tier. But there are 64 pitchers in the Hall for what they did as starters in the Majors. It's honestly hard to find criteria where Mussina doesn't rate in the top 50.

Offline alkeiper

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2018, 04:29:35 AM »
Baseball Writers' Hall of Fame ballot is out. I decided it would be easiest to sort my choices into yes, maybes and nos. First time on the ballot in italics.

YES
Halladay
Rivera

Martinez
Mussina
Clemens
Bonds
Schilling
Ramirez
Sheffield
Sosa
A.Jones

MAYBE
Pettitte
Helton

Walker
McGriff
Kent
Rolen

NO
Ankiel
Bay
Berkman
Garcia
Garland
Hafner
Lilly
Lowe
Oliver
Oswalt
Pierre
Polanco
Tejada
Wells
Youkilis
Young

Vizquel
Wagner

A few of those I'm not sure of off the bat. Would I really rank Andruw over Larry Walker? Or Rolen? But since I already have 10+ yes's I wouldn't lose much sleep over it. Eleven players on the ballot are an easy yes. If I had a vote I would need to leave one off. So Curt Schilling can wait until he decides to be a decent human being.

Miguel Tejada, Lance Berkman I could see arguments for. Roy Oswalt and Michael Young don't have Hall of Fame cases, but they're on the fringe of the discussion. Andy Pettitte is crowded out but I think he's almost certain to get into the Hall eventually. His W/L record is too good.

Offline alkeiper

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #14 on: December 09, 2018, 12:06:52 PM »
Harold Baines and Lee Smith in via veterans committee. Smith was expected to an extent. Baines topped out at 6.1% on the writers ballot and was dropped after five years.

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #15 on: December 09, 2018, 03:30:39 PM »
If Baines got in the whole "He was mostly a DH so fuck him" argument when it comes to induction is dead.  Edgar Martinez should go in next year at minimum.

Offline alkeiper

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #16 on: December 10, 2018, 12:14:01 AM »
If Baines got in the whole "He was mostly a DH so fuck him" argument when it comes to induction is dead.  Edgar Martinez should go in next year at minimum.
This is Martinez's last year on the writers ballot, a separate voting committee selected Baines. Martinez is almost assured of being elected when that vote is announced in January.

Funny thing is this class will likely consist of two DH's and two relievers (Rivera and Smith).

Offline alkeiper

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #17 on: January 22, 2019, 03:55:43 AM »
BBWAA announcement tonight. Halladay and Rivera look like locks. Edgar Martinez is 90% certain. Mike Mussina is a pure coin toss.

Offline Lamar Odom, WHO WAS ON CRACK

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #18 on: January 22, 2019, 09:23:25 AM »
Not only was Rivera a lock, he was unanimous.
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Offline Lamar Odom, WHO WAS ON CRACK

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #19 on: January 22, 2019, 09:26:02 AM »
Rivera, Halladay, Martinez and Mussina in
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Offline HISPANIC FOOTBALL LEGEND

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #20 on: January 22, 2019, 09:36:36 AM »
All deserving, proud of Mo!

Offline Detective Ventriloquist

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #21 on: January 22, 2019, 09:41:32 AM »
So a DH and Closer go in together, and a Closer is the first player to be a unanimous pick. Take that old guard.

Bonds and Clemens both had about 59%
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Offline Dramatic Pizza

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #22 on: January 22, 2019, 10:20:50 AM »
Curt Schilling jumped up to 60%

Offline Kahran Ramsus

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #23 on: January 22, 2019, 10:55:36 AM »
Doc was my favourite player, so happy to see him go in.  Just bittersweet that he's not alive to see it.

Offline Kahran Ramsus

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #24 on: January 22, 2019, 12:13:02 PM »
Not only was Rivera a lock, he was unanimous.

Good.  I hated the logic that nobody can be unanimous because Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, etc. weren't.  Just because people fucked up in the past doesn't mean you should intentionally continue to fuck up in the future.

Offline Amy pats fan

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #25 on: January 22, 2019, 08:33:32 PM »
Mo 100# deserved it.  I'm kind of in shock by it tho TBH.  F'n Cal Ripken didn't get it, and he was the darling of baseball media.....

More excited about Moose getting in, I was starting to get worried that wasn't gonna happen

I'm starting to get more hope for Bonds/Clemens etc

Offline Amy pats fan

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #26 on: January 22, 2019, 08:38:09 PM »
Also happy for Doc.  One of my favorite pitchers of all time and had the pleasure of seeing him pitch live several times.  Him and Pedro are probably my favorite non-Yankee pitchers ever

Offline alkeiper

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #27 on: January 23, 2019, 12:21:22 AM »
All four are highly deserving. Rivera was the greatest reliever of all time. Mussina was 100 wins over .500 for his career. Halladay was transcendently dominant at his peak. And Martinez was a tremendous hitter who led the league in OBP three times.

Halladay had that 2010 season with the Phillies where he pitched the perfect game and another no hitter in the playoffs. One of the most special seasons I've ever witnessed. It's hard to find a player more universally loved. Even speaking as a Phillies fan, he should go in as a Blue Jay.

Curt Schilling
2016 (52.3%)
2017 (45.0%)
2018 (51.2%)
2019 (60.9%)

Schilling's descent into madness hurt his totals. He has upward momentum and three years left, so as long as he stays out of the news he should get in.

Bonds and Clemens are gaining about 3% a year. People are pessimistic, they will probably run out of time on the writers ballot.

Offline Baby Shoes

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #28 on: January 23, 2019, 01:27:05 AM »
Surprised to see the Schilling increase.  I loved him as a player and used to defend when people made him out to be fringe.  Stop defending him when he got outed as a piece of garbage and true lunatic.

Taking all that out, still no way in my mind he should be increasing at a higher rate than guys who were Hall of Famers before they started doing roids like Bonds and Clemens.
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Offline Dramatic Pizza

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #29 on: January 23, 2019, 02:24:46 AM »
I think one of those three get in next year. The only true surefire guy on the ballot for 2020 is Jeter.

Offline Harley Quinn

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #30 on: January 23, 2019, 03:38:55 AM »
IIRC Omar Vizquel was still getting a higher percentage of votes than Scott Rolen, which surprised me. Also Placido Polanco got 2 votes, good on him?

Offline treble

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #31 on: January 23, 2019, 10:46:24 AM »
Halladay's going in without a logo on his cap and that bums me out a bit.

He had mentioned a few years ago that he'd prefer to have a Jays logo if he was inducted, but I don't know if his relationship with the team soured with the new management team. It does seem like the Phillies took more control in terms of organizing things for his family since he died, like having the memorial service at their spring training field and his wife releasing her statement yesterday through them.

Offline Amy pats fan

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #32 on: January 23, 2019, 02:58:08 PM »
To my understanding the BBWA and HOF voters  and historical will have discussions with players about the cap, and it's a debate.  If Doc's wife wants him to go in with the Phillies, I'm not gonna argue with a widow.  And he had a hell of a run with that team, and he's not alive to defend the choice.......I trust her on this one

Offline alkeiper

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Re: MLB Hall of Fame 2019 Edition
« Reply #33 on: January 24, 2019, 12:09:26 AM »
It's ultimately up to the Hall of Fame. Of course they'll take input from the players and in this case Mrs. Halladay. I think it's disappointing for Blue Jays fans. But at the same time, the whole issue of logos on plaques is kind of silly and I think they might be better off doing away with them entirely.