Author Topic: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO  (Read 762 times)

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Offline Harley Quinn

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NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« on: January 14, 2019, 06:24:34 AM »
Sunday, Jan. 20
3:05 p.m. NFC Championship on FOX - Rams vs. Saints (-3, over/under 57)
6:40 p.m. AFC Championship on CBS - Patriots vs. Chiefs (-3, over/under 57)

Thoughts? Predictions?

Offline Harley Quinn

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2019, 06:53:28 AM »
Rams @ Saints
Goff and the Rams are better than the Eagles. With that said, the Saints are playing at home and Brees tore up the Rams earlier in the year with the Saints dropping 35 in the 1st Half. The key here is Todd Gurley and if the Rams can establish a running game/keep Drew Brees off the field and minimize any turnovers.

HQ Prediction: Rams - 31, Saints - 38

Patriots @ Chiefs
Yes, New England has struggled on the road but they dropped 38 against the Bears and lost to Miami after scoring 33. Things to note from the original matchup...
- 1: Patriots dominated the TOP 36 Minutes to just under 24 for the Chiefs. They also ran for 145 yards between Michel/White and White had 5 catches.
- 2: Patriots were up 24-9 at the half before the Chiefs stormed back to make a game of it. Damien Williams isn't the receiving RB that Kareem Hunt was (5 for 105) but a healthy Sammy Watkins forces the Patriots into trouble if they try to take out Kelce like in the first game.
- 3: The Chiefs struggled to stop New England throughout the game with the Patriots settling for a 24 yard FG and the winning 28 yard FG.
- 4: Mahomes threw 2 INT and Brady was sacked 2 times and lost a fumble. Turnovers will be a difference maker in this game.

I think New England tries to double team Tyreek Hill in this game and force Mahomes to rely on Watkins, Kelce, and Damien Williams to beat them. The Patriots did get pressure early in that game and Mahomes was being forced out of the pocket. I also think the Patriots try to shut down the run and force Mahomes to out duel Brady while running Michel/White and trying to control the TOP to keep Mahomes off the field. If Kansas City can score fast like they did in the first game (multiple TDs under 2:00 drive wise) it could be a long day for New England though.

HQ Prediction: Patriots - 33, Chiefs 37. I think New England makes this a dog fight but the home field advantage is too much and Mahomes to Kelce does just enough to push them over the edge. Big keys for KC = Travis Kelce & Damien Williams and for NE = Ground game (Michel & White) and can Edelman/White/Dorsett repeat what they did against the Chargers?

Offline Thrasher

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2019, 03:18:48 PM »
Your Superbowl is Saints/Patriots.
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Offline Harley Quinn

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2019, 03:13:52 AM »
Reportedly gonna be 10 Degrees with a windchill below 0 in Kansas City by the kickoff. That should neuter the sound advantage of Arrowhead Stadium somewhat (hard to cheer loud when cold's screwing up your lungs) and could also aid the Patriots "dink & dunk" type offense over the Chiefs more vertical, downfield attack too.

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2019, 04:34:29 AM »
At work yesterday, we were talking about the games and I think it has to be Rams/Patriots because Patriots started their reign of terror against them and the Rams have to end it.
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Offline Harley Quinn

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2019, 05:22:45 AM »
I'll probably break down the Chiefs offense for another post but a couple quick things I've noticed: #72 struggles against pass rush (especially a bull rush) and Mahomes tends to throw a lot of his passes high which could lead to potential interceptions for Pats safeties.

Breaking Down the Chiefs Defense (Watched: Colts, Seahawks, Patriots)

- RB James White was torching LB Anthony Hitchens in their 1st Matchup. Keep an eye on this in the AFC Title Game. Chiefs could also opt to use DB Daniel Sorenson on White instead this go around.

- Gronkowski and Allen being in-line blockers at TE will be big. I can see the Patriots lining up with James Develin or Dwayne Allen as an in-line blocker, offset, in the backfield to minimize Justin Houston in the run game while trying to run the ball away from Dee Ford (or vice versa).

- Chiefs like to employ a lot of matching underneath on crossing TEs. Patriots could take advantage with clearing routes and trying to get a 1-1 matchup here. Colts had guys open when utilizing crossing routes, especially in the middle of the field. Broken tackles are a thing to watch out for in this game from a Patriots standpoint.

- Lots of man coverage, very rarely did the Chiefs try to jam receivers. Chiefs struggled some when receivers ran comeback routes on the outside. Slot receivers often got clean releases, I expect a lot of motioning and using Chris Hogan to clear out space/get open over the middle.

- Very rarely did the Chiefs ask Dee Ford or Justin Houston to drop into coverage. Patriots could utilize draws and runs up the middle to try and neutralize the pass rush then opt for play action throws down the seams/crossers (keep an eye out for their Y Cross throw off PA to Chris Hogan here that they sometimes run). One of the strengths of their PA game is that they completely sell the runs/passes identically so it’s hard for defenses to pick up on it.

- Chiefs interior really struggles against the run and it helps offset the effect of Ford/Houston. The 2nd level tackling will be a difference maker in whether the Patriots churn out 3-5 yard runs or are consistently getting 7+ a run. The usage of guys like Shaq Mason will be something to watch as he’s the most athletic lineman on the Patriots OL but center David Andrews can also get to the 2nd level quickly. If Gronkowski can neutralize the edge and the Patriots OL dominates like last week, the Chiefs are in for a long game.

- Expect a lot of quick throws to the outside for guys like Edelman and Patterson if the Chiefs CBs are playing deep off coverage Zone. That will allow for ‘easy’ 3-5 yard gains with potential for bigger plays if the CBs whiff on the 1-1 tackles. Worth noting that the Seahawks were killing them with routes towards the sidelines off play action.

3 Keys For New England Offense
#1: Pound the ball inside in the running game. Use Develin at FB or in-line TE to take on the OLB and let the C/G hit the 2nd Level. Chris Jones is great and Dee Ford/Justin Houston are great pass rushers but both guys are much like Dwight Freeney was, able to make minimal impacts when the ball is run upon them. There’s a reason the Chiefs Run D has sucked all season.

#2: Target the middle of the field on crossing routes. Seattle could’ve scored at least 2 more TD if Wilson had taken the crossing route underneath. Take advantage of play action and I expect a lot of Y Cross/Shallows/Digs in this game from McDaniels.

#3: When throwing to the outside, utilize speed and emphasize the comeback routes. Brady lives off the timing passing game and this could be a strength of his. I also expect a lot of routes into the flat, particularly to James White and/or Cordarrelle Patterson with a focus on breaking tackles in 1-1 situations here while the outside WRs block the CBs.

Offline Kahran Ramsus

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2019, 08:58:40 AM »
I like the Saints and Chiefs.  On paper these games should be high scoring, but a little birdie tells me they won't live up to the hype. 

I hate doubting on Belichick and I'd definitely take him over Reid.  But their record isn't stellar on the road and the Chiefs have a big talent advantage.  This just has the look of one of those @ Denver games where the Pats got hammered.  The Chiefs are the better team.  I have little doubt of that.  Can the better coach make the difference?  Chiefs 45, Patriots 28

As for the other game, the Saints just beat the Eagles who I think are better than the Rams.  Brees absolutely lit up the Rams in their first matchup, but Brees hasn't been as good lately.  I still trust him far more than Goff.  The Rams have struggled against good teams all year aside from last week and even then I think Dallas was one of the weakest teams in the entire playoff field.  Stop Elliot and you stop the Cowboys.  The Saints are nowhere close to being that one dimensional and on paper at least should be able to torch Marcus Peters and the Rams' lousy secondary.  Saints 30, Rams 15

Offline KingPK

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2019, 11:22:03 AM »
I want to say the Pats haven't won a road AFC championship in this run since like 2004 in Pittsburgh (granted most of the games have been at home since then). This is not the same team on the road so I wouldn't at all be surprised if KC smashes them.

Offline Cartman

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2019, 11:29:50 AM »
Yep, since 2001 they have only won on the road in the AFC championship twice, both in Pittsburgh.


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Offline Harley Quinn

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2019, 11:19:10 PM »
Yep, since 2001 they have only won on the road in the AFC championship twice, both in Pittsburgh.

It's worth noting that most of their road losses in general were against Peyton Manning (IND x1, DEN x2) and a few were in Denver where the Patriots have notoriously struggled. I don't hold much weight given the small sample size.

Offline Harley Quinn

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2019, 12:11:16 AM »
Breaking Down the Chiefs Offense (Watched: vs. Patriots, Seahawks, Colts)
- Tyreek Hill is a freak at WR, duh. Travis Kelce is also really good, duh again, both as a blocker and as a receiver. These two players will largely make the Chiefs offense go as much as Mahomes on Sunday.
- Chiefs Tackles (#71 Mitchell Schwartz and #72 Eric Fisher) struggled against the pass constantly, especially Schwartz. Mahomes bailed them out a lot by getting rid of the ball quickly IMO. Patriots were generating a lot of pressure by "rushing" 5-6 players and then droppping 1 or 2 of them into zone coverage underneath after the lineman had anticipated blocking them. Watch for this (See Hightower INT in game 1).
- When pressured, Mahomes tends to throw high a lot (and sometimes when unpressured). Seahawks and Colts also did that pretty well to the point that the Colts had an INT overturned on penalty and nearly had a 2nd Pick on the next play. Patriots and Colts both had a dropped INT elsewhere in the game too.
- Chiefs are at their best running the ball inside and utilizing Damien Williams off the C/G gap. If the Patriots DTs struggle, Chiefs could end up staying on the field for long stretches at a time. Keep an eye on Hightower/Van Noy plugging those gaps too.

3 Keys For Chiefs Offense
01: Mahomes needs to get the ball out fast to neutralize the pass rush. If he can do this, he can tear up the Patriots defense. I expect New England to disguise their blitzes, drop the LBs into underneath zones, and try & play more press coverage to make Mahomes hold the ball longer and let the rush get to him.

02: Chiefs need to get Tyreek Hill the ball. I expect at least 2 tries at End Around runs in this game. Nobody on the Patriots can match up with him and I think the Patriots try to mix in more Cover 2 disguised formations to help double team Hill some. If the Patriots take away Kelce but leave Hill exposed, the Chiefs can score a ton of points at will against them.

03: This will come down to pass protection. Even in the 2nd Half of a beatdown, the Colts were just whipping the Chiefs OL and generating constant pressure on Mahomes. If the Chiefs struggle to run the ball, Mahomes will eventually get blasted by the Patriots edge rushers and could turn the ball over if he tries to throw deep. Give Mahomes some time though and the Patriots could be dead in the water.

Harley's Overall Thoughts
The more I watch stuff, the more I think the Patriots have a legitimate chance to win this game. It really is going to depend on New England being successful with: Running the ball offensively (especially converting 3rd Downs), Generating a pass rush that effects Mahomes even if they are just QB Hurries, and winning the field position battle on special teams.

Kansas City's offense was not invincible. They were down 24-9 at halftime in Gillette, down 31-20 in Seattle with 7 & 1/2 left in the 4th Quarter, held to 14 points at halftime against the Chargers at home, and held to just 7 points in the 2nd Half against the Colts. If the Patriots get ahead early and answer field goals with touchdowns, this could come down to Mahomes Comeback Mode like the first game.

I think KC pulls this one off still but now I think this is a legitimate toss up to the point that the Patriots winning won't be the "upset" most think it may be.

Offline MFer

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2019, 01:15:46 PM »
Saints and Chiefs. I was flirting with the idea of picking the Patriots but I can't do it.

Offline Saints_Fan_H

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2019, 07:23:12 PM »
It'd be great if Payton didn't coach like he was 13, chugging red bull, and playing Xbox.

Offline KingPK

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2019, 07:03:37 AM »
That ratfucker in the crowd with a whistle near a field mic needs to be thrown off the Superdome roof.

Also, I'm sure the Rams would rather Todd Gurley be doing a SB 49 Malcolm Butler impression than a SB 52.

Offline KingPK

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2019, 09:00:24 AM »
REFBALL~!

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2019, 09:25:00 AM »
Congrats to the Rams but man hate to see a game directly decided by the refs.  Takes the fun out of it.  As a fan I try to rationalize everything down to play but can't here.  Refs handed Rams the game

Offline Krankor

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2019, 09:27:36 AM »
The fix is in.

Offline Aero

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2019, 09:42:49 AM »
Not that confirmation was needed, but Sean Payton said he already heard from the league office, who said it was a blown call.

Offline KingPK

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2019, 09:54:21 AM »
Man, Sony Michel and James White have completely changed this offense.

Offline Saints_Fan_H

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2019, 10:15:19 AM »
Fucking garbage!

Offline KingPK

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2019, 10:19:01 AM »
Horrible play call on that pick.  Run it until they prove they can stop you.

Offline Firmino of the 909

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2019, 10:24:36 AM »
Andy Reid is so fucking dumb


koab [8:27 PM]
damn i thought you guys were good little cucks who would shit themselfs so a POC could peacefully protest

Offline KingPK

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2019, 10:36:24 AM »
Where's this defense been all year?  Unless the second half is a fireworks show, both games will be under because of course they would be.

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #23 on: January 20, 2019, 10:54:25 AM »
The Chiefs are a snake bitten franchise.  I do feel sorry for their fans

Offline Tino Standard

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #24 on: January 20, 2019, 11:48:23 AM »

Offline KingPK

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #25 on: January 20, 2019, 11:59:47 AM »
Is Brady just too old for those sneaks they used to do?  They don't seem to call that at all anymore.  At least give it to a big body like Devlin or something.

Offline KingPK

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #26 on: January 20, 2019, 12:04:22 PM »
That somehow never touched Edleman.  Don't ask me how.  Why he's even making a play for that ball is another issue entirely.  This team has been a bunch of mental midgets this year.

Offline Aero

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #27 on: January 20, 2019, 12:05:21 PM »
I don't think he touched it either, but I think there's a good chance they won't overturn it.

Offline KingPK

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #28 on: January 20, 2019, 12:11:39 PM »
So many Brady INTs this year were from shit like that.  SO MANY.

NFL refs covering themselves in glory today.

Offline Firmino of the 909

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #29 on: January 20, 2019, 12:27:26 PM »
This game is rigged.


koab [8:27 PM]
damn i thought you guys were good little cucks who would shit themselfs so a POC could peacefully protest

Offline Aero

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #30 on: January 20, 2019, 12:39:07 PM »
Surely they should have milked some clock there?

Offline KingPK

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #31 on: January 20, 2019, 12:39:57 PM »
So this might hit the over after all....

Also, if they aren't going to call them, might as well make pick plays legal and get it over with.

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #32 on: January 20, 2019, 01:14:03 PM »
GOAT DOING GOAT THINGS!  OLD DAWG V YOUNGBLOOD IN THE SOUP.

Offline Aero

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #33 on: January 20, 2019, 01:14:28 PM »
Football sucks.

Offline Kahran Ramsus

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #34 on: January 20, 2019, 01:16:08 PM »
That was a Green Bay Packers-esque performance from KC.

Offline fazzle

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #35 on: January 20, 2019, 01:18:31 PM »
Hopefully it all goes full circle and the Rams kill the Brady/Belichick dynasty.

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #36 on: January 20, 2019, 01:19:42 PM »
Brady becomes the first QB with 3 OT wins in the postseason. 

Boston vs. LA in a championship again.  I'm sure the nation is thrilled.

Offline Krankor

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #37 on: January 20, 2019, 01:23:04 PM »
We aren't.

Offline Aero

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #38 on: January 20, 2019, 01:25:25 PM »
Post/av combo.

Offline Krankor

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #39 on: January 20, 2019, 01:43:24 PM »
This is what hell feels like.

Offline Amy pats fan

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #40 on: January 20, 2019, 02:23:40 PM »
The f'n Zebras were beyond awful today......

Offline Baby Shoes

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #41 on: January 20, 2019, 02:30:50 PM »
[img width=800

Quote
Fan: WHY CAN REY BEAT BIG GUYS BUT NOT KIDMAN
Kevin Nash: Kidman wears a wife beater

Offline KingPK

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #42 on: January 20, 2019, 05:01:38 PM »
This is what hell feels like.


Offline Harley Quinn

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #43 on: January 20, 2019, 10:33:46 PM »
Saints got fucked over by the refs there. One of the most awful missed calls I've ever seen.

Brady proved the Patriots continue to just do what they do. Chiefs had no answers for the running game (177 yards on the ground, 4 TD), struggled to mostly stop the Patriots on 3rd Down, and Patriots pass rush got to Mahomes just enough (Just 16/31 for the entire game with a near pick). Gronk really showed up and Edelman is a total beast. Chiefs had 0 Sacks, Patriots had 4 and Van Noy was a constant threat throughout.

Hell of an AFC Title game and that drive in OT was capped perfectly with a run right down the Chiefs' throat.

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Re: NFL Championship Round 2019: NE @ KC and LA @ NO
« Reply #44 on: January 20, 2019, 11:06:02 PM »
Belichick with 2 weeks to prepare for Goff, who hasn't even been that good the last couple months.  Can't see the Pats losing here