MLB Season 2026

[alkeiper]

Spring training games start tomorrow!

There's a narrative that the league lacks parity. But looking at Fangraph's Projected Standings, eleven of the fifteen American League teams are projected between 80-89 wins. There's the Dodgers, 4-5 bottom feeders and everyone else. While the threat of a lockout lingers in November, this looks to be an extremely competitive season.

 

[alfdogg]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2026405665103860121

 

[HarleyQuinn]

I'm always intrigued how the IP breakdown is going to go. Last year just 21 pitchers threw for more than 180 innings (down from 25 in 2023 and 27 in 2022). Of the Top 10 in BRef WAR, only 2: Zack Wheeler (149.2 in 24 starts) and Trevor Rogers (109.2 IP across 18 starts) finished with fewer than 166 IP.

I always feel like towards the end of the season managers free the reigns a little bit and you're more likely to see guys go 6, 7, even 8 IP more often than the start or even mid-way through the season.

Fun (Sad?) Fact: Just 20 years ago there were 50 pitchers who threw 200 IP or more. 20 of them threw for 220+

 

[snuffbox]

There may be things getting lost in counting innings. As Harley mentioned, parameters shift depending on the timing of the season, but that doesn't mean that there's a difference on what's happening to bodies in September vs in April. But a bigger thing might be number of high leverage pitches thrown.

Example: Devin Williams. Lots of trophies, great stats, etc. But so often in Milwaukee he'd need 30-40 pitches to get the 9th inning, all of them critically important pitches. Top tier counting stats, got saves, fun (and frightening) to watch, usually just one inning at a time. But, by the time he got to NYC he'd already taxed his arm almost every single appearance.

If pitchers continue to get hurt on these reduced innings, it may be good to reconsider this strategy (throughout baseball from little league up).

 

[Smues]

Jurickson Profar suspended for 162 games for PEDs. Lol my team.

 

[alkeiper]

Might as well talk World Baseball Classic here? Yesterday Team USA defeated the Giants 15-1 in an exhibition game. Today they play the Rockies. That should be fun.

Tournament proper kicks off tonight at 10pm ET with Taiwan vs. Australia.

 

[alkeiper]

Czechia lost their first two games 11-4 (Korea) and 5-1 (Australia). They trail Taiwan 6-0 in the second. They’ve looked sadly outmatched more than any other team in the tournament and they still have Japan to play.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

There may be things getting lost in counting innings. As Harley mentioned, parameters shift depending on the timing of the season, but that doesn't mean that there's a difference on what's happening to bodies in September vs in April. But a bigger thing might be number of high leverage pitches thrown.

Example: Devin Williams. Lots of trophies, great stats, etc. But so often in Milwaukee he'd need 30-40 pitches to get the 9th inning, all of them critically important pitches. Top tier counting stats, got saves, fun (and frightening) to watch, usually just one inning at a time. But, by the time he got to NYC he'd already taxed his arm almost every single appearance.

If pitchers continue to get hurt on these reduced innings, it may be good to reconsider this strategy (throughout baseball from little league up).

This is interesting because I remember pitchers in the 80s and 90s talking about how they'd "ramp up" pitches depending on certain counts, the situation of the inning/game, who was at-bat, etc. in terms of like they'd start the game off in the low 90s (say 91-93) then if needed they'd "reach back" and try to hit that 96-97-98 MPH range but only for special circumstances. Nowadays pitchers come out of the gate trying to hit 100 every fastball pitch whether it's the 1st batter, the #9 hitter, or the 7th inning with no real discern for anything else but throwing it as fast as they can.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...h-does-pitching-velocity-matter-espn-magazine is a neat little article from 2014 and we can see the growing, immediate influence of "velocity" and subsequently movement/spin rate in the more recent 5 years especially with pitches like Sweepers, etc.