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Senate and House Races 2020
- Thread starter HarleyQuinn
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Gert
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Lindsey losing would be awesome. Part of me will be unhappy if Mitch beats a woman and Graham beats a black man, thus proving that they are almost teflon unless they are up against a white male. I'll settle for one of the two losing and be happy.
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Looks pretty certain that the following states should flip in the Senate: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia (Warnock is leading thanks to Loeffler/Collins splitting the vote. Will likely go to a runoff, however), Maine, and North Carolina. I think Maine is tight but if Maine goes Biden, I can't imagine them then going Collins for the Senate again.
Potential Senate seats that could flip: Georgia (Ossoff has been up 1-3% in recent polls and I think he has a real chance), Iowa (I think Ernst gets it but Greenfield has a legitimate chance), and Montana (Daines has been leading but it's tight and is a dark horse race to follow).
Potential Senate seats that could flip: Georgia (Ossoff has been up 1-3% in recent polls and I think he has a real chance), Iowa (I think Ernst gets it but Greenfield has a legitimate chance), and Montana (Daines has been leading but it's tight and is a dark horse race to follow).
King Kamala
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Looks like Susan Collins is going to win Maine on the first ballot. Board neoliberals can’t even point accusatory towards grubby Green Party voters like me cause even if you combined our totals with Sara Gideon’s, Sue would still have a 3% lead.
I underestimated number of Biden-Collins voters and the gross incompetence of the Maine Democratic Party.
I underestimated number of Biden-Collins voters and the gross incompetence of the Maine Democratic Party.
Laz
Making dumb observations since 2002
Just from a few work trips up to Maine over the last month, I can tell you Gideon ran a fucking garbage promotion campaign. Attacking Collins with the "if she's so independent then why does she side with Trump" line over and over was pedantic.
King Kamala
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It was just a total dunderheaded campaign. Her positive campaign ads talked about how she was able to cross the aisles and work effectively with both sides as Speaker of the Maine State House. The Maine State House has been shut down for the entire pandemic. Susan Collins work on CARES Act was p. lame but at least she could point to something that she's done during the pandemic.
King Kamala
Integral Poster
Hey what do you know ? Maybe big money campaigns aren’t the way to go for the Democratic Party.
King Kamala
Integral Poster
Tbh I will probably think twice about donating to candidates in long shot races after this election cycle. I am not sure if I would have donated so much to Harrison if I knew the race was never really in question.
Mr. S£im Citrus
Representing Blacks Without Soul since 1975
What makes it difficult for candidates like Harrison to win is the fear factor that the GOP has successfully ginned up in its base, for decades, that has made them afraid of a socialist "Boogeyman," even though 8 out of 10 South Carolinians couldn't find socialism in the dictionary, if you spotted them the first four letters; they just know that it's bad. Like, the attack ads against Harrison would just be calling him a radical leftist, or a socialist, or some shit, and showing pictures of him next to AOC, Biden and Pelosi (whom, for some reason, are also considered "radical leftists," in South Carolina), and that would be enough.
It's the same here: Perdue ran ads that said shit like, "Jon Ossoff is too extreme for Georgia!" And I'm like, Jon Ossoff is too extreme for Georgia?!
It's the same here: Perdue ran ads that said shit like, "Jon Ossoff is too extreme for Georgia!" And I'm like, Jon Ossoff is too extreme for Georgia?!
Mr. S£im Citrus
Representing Blacks Without Soul since 1975
What South Carolina and the other southern states need is somebody like Stacey Abrams, to get people to the polls.
King Kamala
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I don't see how anyone can feel good about the amount of money in politics. At very least, I think a lot of these races could be used as evidence that focus should be on spending smarter rather than spending harder.
Christ. Who sounds fiscal now?
Christ. Who sounds fiscal now?
Steve Bullock is extremely anti-Citizens United so this idea that he doesn't have policies is ridiculous.
snuffbox
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The only way a candidate can be viable without money is if they're already a celebrity. It was even more important to raise record amounts this year because retail politics, the door-knocking and whatnot, wasn't possible.
The GOP already has the media. Their Fox News is the powerhouse of cable news. All "mainstream" outlets bend over backwards for them out of fear of appearing biased. To have any chance at all, the Dems will continue to have to raise and spend large amounts of money.
The GOP already has the media. Their Fox News is the powerhouse of cable news. All "mainstream" outlets bend over backwards for them out of fear of appearing biased. To have any chance at all, the Dems will continue to have to raise and spend large amounts of money.
To blame any election loss on literally anything other than this is absolutely ridiculous. That is why all these incumbents won. They call it incumbent's advantage for a reason and when you can't even campaign, I mean
King Kamala
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AOC wasn't a celebrity in early 2018 and was outspent 10 to 1 by Joe Crowley. Having strong ideas and voter outreach is more important than having massive coiffures.
snuffbox
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Yeah, I tried to cover similar grounds with some of the other candidates as well. Harrison was much more than just 'not Graham.' Collins didn't lose because Gideon is milquetoast when Collins won by being milquetoast as fuck. Etc.
I think some of this is akin to the "athletes are overpaid" type of thinking.
They couldn't outreach
snuffbox
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Retail politics was possible in early 2018. It wasn't this year.
AOC also won in the first place by pounding pavement, standing outside of places handing out flyers, and holding meetings everywhere she could think of. There was a lot of foot traffic. There's a good documentary on Netflix that shows all of this. How the hell are you gonna do that now?
King Kamala
Integral Poster
It was a lot more difficult but not impossible.
Omar and Tlaib Credited as 'Major Factors' in Securing Biden Victories in Minnesota and Michigan
"You get what you organize for," said Rep. Ilhan Omar. "Direct voter contact wins elections," added Rep. Rashida Tlaib.
www.commondreams.org
King Kamala
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He criticizes the Democrats from the right and I criticize them from the left, Snarkbox.
It was a lot more difficult but not impossible.
Omar and Tlaib Credited as 'Major Factors' in Securing Biden Victories in Minnesota and Michigan
"You get what you organize for," said Rep. Ilhan Omar. "Direct voter contact wins elections," added Rep. Rashida Tlaib.
Not to be captain obvious but:
A. They and every Democrat in the areas they would be welcome to knock on doors in would get elected no matter what.
B. Biden would win those states no matter what.
Look at the states we're talking about here. Montana. Montana is a state the size of two New Englands. A door knocking campaign ain't gonna do it. You need events. South Carolina. Most of the people who vote for Democrats in South Carolina are likely to be non-white. The last time there was a high turnout election in South Carolina, Lindsey Graham won by 15%. This time by 10%.
I agree about throwing money away on Amy McGrath though. There ain't a way to win there.
Baby Shoes
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Poor democrats being in that Brody/Kamala sandwich...
Also, when you're talking about why Democrats can't win in red states when Trump is super popular in those states, doesn't that speak for itself? There is nothing that you can tell these people. They hate literally everything the Democratic party stands for. They hate blacks. They hate Asians. They hate brown people. A lot of them would spit in Omar's face if she knocked on their door. I'm not sure it's feasible to really look in the mirror and say, "man there has to be some other reason Democrats don't win there." One of the main reasons these states stay red is because minorities move out of them to get away from those people, which is what I'd do too.
People are always looking for some other reason for something, but the most obvious one is right in your face. The Democrats won Georgia because people moved from blue states into that state for work and Stacey Abrams got people who never voted before to vote. She did a great job. They still barely won that shit. Biden won Arizona because Trump hates Mexicans. Too much of our politics is about searching for different reasons for things that are blatantly obvious. You are never gonna get red states on board with anything other than the most purely selfish policies because that is what people in those states identify with. They care about themselves, they care about what is good for them. They don't want to help anyone. There isn't anyone in the world who's going to break through that. They literally turned out more of them this time! Social media is an incredibly effective radicalization tool.
We beat them by winning the shit that we actually can win. The pandemic might have floated Biden but it definitely didn't help any challengers. NC, Iowa, and Maine were three seats that could have been won.
People are always looking for some other reason for something, but the most obvious one is right in your face. The Democrats won Georgia because people moved from blue states into that state for work and Stacey Abrams got people who never voted before to vote. She did a great job. They still barely won that shit. Biden won Arizona because Trump hates Mexicans. Too much of our politics is about searching for different reasons for things that are blatantly obvious. You are never gonna get red states on board with anything other than the most purely selfish policies because that is what people in those states identify with. They care about themselves, they care about what is good for them. They don't want to help anyone. There isn't anyone in the world who's going to break through that. They literally turned out more of them this time! Social media is an incredibly effective radicalization tool.
We beat them by winning the shit that we actually can win. The pandemic might have floated Biden but it definitely didn't help any challengers. NC, Iowa, and Maine were three seats that could have been won.
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King Kamala
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Maybe I'm just stupid (don't answer that) but I fail to see how a fundraising arms race is the best way to flip swing seats. In the case of Maine and South Carolina, I think it may have hurt things as Susan Collins & Lindsay Graham were able to (unnecessarily) play the victim card.
It's an absolute crime that Gideon could have raised that much money and still had an awful campaign.
It's an absolute crime that Gideon could have raised that much money and still had an awful campaign.
Scorching hot take: the COVID policy (sans stimulus) of Republicans is actually not even remotely as unpopular as the consensus thinks it is, and a LOT of this money went straight towards attacking the GOP's COVID policy, therefore being wasted money.
King Kamala
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I don't think that is a hot take at all. I had a very long conversation last weekend with my girlfriend, who grew up evangelical (and whose parents still are) and I think a lot of conservatives welcome mass death cause they think it will hasten the Second Coming.