Allen Bored
Welcome to a new weekly feature on Culture Crossfire where I will countdown the five biggest upsets in college football from the prior week. I’ll be using point spreads (per Covers.com) to determine which five games had the most surprising results. For the opening week of the season I’m going to give extra focus to what were the preseason expectations for the teams involved.
#5
Northwestern 16, Stanford 6
Spread: Stanford -10
While this was not the biggest upset of the week, it was the most noteworthy. Stanford came into this game ranked #21 in the AP preseason poll and there were some who viewed them as a potential sleeper for the College Football Playoff including the usually reliable preseason prognosticator Phil Steele who projected them to finish #7 this year. Northwestern on the other hand was projected by many to finish 5th in the Big Ten West and struggle to become bowl eligible. In the game Northwestern held the very conservative Stanford offense to just 3.9 yards per play and the 6 points scored by Stanford was their fewest since 2007. While Northwestern’s offense didn’t fare that much better at 4.2 yards per play they did have the lone big offensive play on a 42 yard touchdown run by quarterback Colton Thorson in the 2nd quarter to give them 10-3 lead and proved to the be the deciding score in this defensive struggle.
#4
Fordham 37, Army 35
Spread: Army -14
Typically point spreads are on target or at least close to conventional wisdom but this point spread to me seemed unusually high in the favor of Army. The Army program has had only one winning season in the last 18 years and there was little reason coming into this year to think their fortunes would change. Fordham was ranked #21 in the preseason FCS Coaches’ Poll and probably deserved a little more respect than being a two touchdown underdog to one of the weaker teams in FBS. They were paced with an explosive passing attack by quarterback Kevin Anderson who was 15 of 23 for 322 yards. Running back Chase Edwards had 100+ yards both on the ground (110) and through the air (140). After scoring the go ahead touchdown early in the 4th quarter Fordham head coach Joe Moorhead made the ambitious decision to go two which proved to be successful in giving them a 37-29 lead. Army would score with 2:33 to go but failed on their two point attempt to tie the game.
#3
FIU 15, UCF 14
Spread: UCF -14
With only nine returning starters this was expected to be a slight step back this year for a UCF program that has won 9+ games in four of their last five seasons but still potentially competing for a AAC conference championship. FIU has won only eight games in their previous three seasons and the last time these two opened the season in 2013, UCF crushed them 38-0. In this game however FIU held a decided advantage at least on a per play basis with a 5.7 to 4.6 edge. The reasons why they didn’t win this convincingly though was a sloppy first half that included a fumble on their own 26 that set up a UCF touchdown. Last season only three teams in all of FBS averaged fewer yards per rushing attempt than UCF (3.73) and the run continued to be an issue here as running backs Dontravious Wilson and William Stanback ran for just 40 yards on 22 carries. They squandered a 14-3 halftime lead and despite crossing into FIU territory four times in the second half they couldn’t add any points. UCF had a chance to win it in the final minute but kicker Matthew Wright’s 47 yards field goal attempt was blocked. He was not helped by false start penalty that preceded it to push him five yards back.
#2
North Dakota 24, Wyoming 13
Spread: Wyoming -18
Before becoming head coach of Wyoming last season, Craig Bohl had spent the previous 11 years as head coach of North Dakota State a program he lead to three consecutive FCS National Championships. Ironically though it was only in his first season at NDSU that he coached against in state rival North Dakota, then prevailing 28-21. He clearly still has a lot of work to do in trying to build Wyoming into a Mountain West conference title contender after this result. While the consensus had them finishing near or at the bottom of the Mountain West Mountain division it seemed they should still have prevailed over a North Dakota team projected to finish 9th in the Big Sky media and coaches’ polls and had never beaten an FBS school. This game was never much of a contest on the scoreboard as North Dakota was in control 21-0 early in the 4th quarter. Even though Wyoming finished with a slight yards per play advantage (5.7 to 5.6) a lot of their offensive production came in the 4th when the game was out of reach. Big difference in the game was third downs as North Dakota converted 9 of 17 compared to Wyoming who converted just 3 of 13.
#1
Portland State 24, Washington State 17
Spread: Washington State -30
It’s going to be very tough to top a 30 point spread for an upset this year and it’s going to be even tougher to convince Washington State fans that Mike Leach should keep his job. While they have been a perennial Pac-12 doormat for almost a decade now it’s hard to believe a Power Five school could lose to a Portland State team that won only three games last year and was picked to finish 13th out of 14 teams in the Big Sky media poll. In the game Washington State held a 5.5 to 4.9 yards per play advantage and ran 15 more plays from scrimmage. But they left door open for a potential upset on the first two possessions where they had a 11 play, 71 yard drive end in a field goal after having 1st & Goal at the 8 and then an epic 20 play, 93 yard drive that took almost 10 minutes off the game clock ended in a missed field goal. They did find the endzone on their next possession to take a 10-0 lead into the half but getting only three points out of those first two possessions was a killer. They’d squandered another scoring opportunity in the 3rd quarter by turning it over on downs inside the Portland State 30. After gaining just 41 total yards in the first half and never crossing midfield, Portland State scored on four of their five second half possessions.
