David Hunter
Upside Down Fantasy Drafting
Not For the Faint of Heart
This strategy is not for those of you fantasy players who want to play it safe during their drafts and hoard the top tier running backs while selecting the quarterbacks who have dropped to Round 8 or 9. If you’re worried about having to comb through the waiver wire or try and dictate potential match ups, avoid this strategy and see the exit door to your right.
If you have stuck around past the opening paragraph, this is where championships can be won as a result of zigging while your opponents are all zagging during the draft. This strategy is most commonly utilized for ‘typical’ fantasy leagues: No PPR, 1 QB/2 RB/3 WR/1 TE/1 K/1 TD set ups. However, this strategy can be employed in leagues with a point per reception scoring set up as well as start 2 QB leagues but the risks are slightly higher as a result.
Predicated on Position Turnover
This system is largely based around the fact that certain positions, such as running backs, tend to have a higher turnover rate than say quarterbacks or wide receivers or even tight ends. If you’re selecting in the Top 5 of a 10 to 14 team league, you may be drafting a running back whom finishes the fantasy season out at 15-25 in year end rankings at the position. That’s fine but not quite the premium you were expecting with such a high pick. Other websites have crunched the numbers and turnover has varied at running back from roughly 60-70% of top 5 running backs failing to repeat the next season in comparison to 30-40% of quarterbacks and tight ends failing to repeat.
If you’re picking farther back, why waste the 9th or 10th pick by taking the 7th or 8th best running back on the board while ignoring a potential top 3 quarterback or top 2 tight end such as Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham? Let’s say you are in a 12 team league and you’re stuck with the 8th pick. You know that your opponents will take 7 running backs and quarterback before you pick. Let’s do some comparisons.
1 quarterback: 415 FP vs. 12th quarterback: 327 FP (difference of 88 FP)
1 running back: 233 FP vs. 12th running back: 185 FP vs. 18th running back: 166 FP (difference of 67 FP)
1 wide receiver: 217 FP vs. 12th wide receiver: 170 FP vs. 18th wide receiver: 142 FP (difference of 75 FP)
1 tight end: 193 FP vs. 12th tight end: 93 FP vs. 18th tight end: 79 FP (difference of 114 FP)
Right from the get go, you can see that the drop off is steepest everywhere but at the running back position where you can get by with the 18th best running back while taking advantage by obtaining the premium talent at the other core positions.
The Upside Down Strategy In Action
I opted for a traditional Yahoo league set up and employed this strategy in a mock draft for 12 teams.
9th Pick in the Draft 6 RBs had already been selected in Round 1. Available options were: Jeremy Hill, Matt Forte, C.J. Anderson, and LeSean McCoy.
1st Round: WR Dez Bryant
2nd Round: QB Aaron Rodgers
3rd Round: WR Kelvin Benjamin
4th Round: QB Russell Wilson
Ordinarily I would not have selected Wilson here and opted for a tight end or running back (Jonathan Stewart and LeGarrette Blount were available) but I decided to force other teams to have lesser QB talent while obtaining a possible trade chip down the line as well as a solid starting option should Rodgers suffer an injury.
5th Round: TE Greg Olsen
6th Round: WR Vincent Jackson
7th Round: RB Giovani Bernard
8th Round: WR Nelson Agholor (R)
9th Round: RB Isaiah Crowell
10th Round: WR Victor Cruz
11th Round: RB Bishop Sankey
12th Round: RB Duke Johnson (R)
13th Round: TD Tampa Bay
14th Round: TD Atlanta
15th Round: K Randy Bullock
I liked how my running back situation ended up, especially with securing 2 Top 5 quarterbacks, a stacked WR core with high upside bench depth, and a top 4 tight end. The team defenses and kicker I took based on SOS which is an iffy, risky option but both positions could be built upon via the waiver wire and possibly playing match ups during the season.
I managed to basically land whomever becomes the key starter in the Cleveland Browns backfield, the probable starter in Tennessee, and a key committee RB who can become the unquestioned starter in Cincinnati should an injury strike. There’s certainly some risk here and with the strategy by nature but you should be able to hold steady depending on working trades and the waiver wire.
Courtesy of FBG, here’s how my team would stack up scoring wise.
QBs: 380 FP (rounding a bit assuming Rodgers stays healthy and Wilson only plays the bye week)
RBs: 456 FP (this would be assuming I’d be able to play Cleveland correctly/get a consistent starter from the duo)
WRs: 514 FP
TE: 129 FP
K: 108 FP
TD: 108 FP (this would likely end up being a TDBC tactic throughout the year)
Total: 1,695 FP (130 FP per week)
Players to Spotlight With This Strategy
Given that this strategy emphasizes taking advantage of premium talent at other skill positions, I’ll mainly be eying running backs who should be available and be viable selections.
Listed below are the ADP (average draft position) courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator
Carlos Hyde (San Francisco 49ers) ADP of 4×04 (Range: 2×07 – 5×07): Stepping into the shoes of the departed Frank Gore, Hyde is expected to be the bellcow ball carrier for a 49ers offense looking to bounce back from a disastrous season in 2014. Hyde probably won’t be a receiving threat but he can pound the ball inside and has enough moves to bounce outside when the opportunity calls. He won’t be a flashy option, especially with Jim Tomsula taking over as head coach, but he’s reminiscent of past running backs like BenJarvus Green-Ellis and current Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount in that he should consistently generate 70+ rushing yards a game making him a fine compliment to your ideal stud stable of WRs and top tier QB/TE combo.
T.J. Yeldon (Jacksonville Jaguars) ADP of 5×05 (Range: 3×10 – 7×04): Albeit a rookie in a very young offense with Blake Bortles at QB and Allen Robinson, and Marqise Lee as weapons outside, Yeldon is expected to be given every opportunity to carry the load for the Jaguars and represents a sneaky RB1 play. Gus Bradley’s in his second season after leaving Seattle and knows what a big, strong running back can do for an NFL team. Gerhart was largely a bust as the main running back last season and Robinson only averaged 4.3 yards per carry while not posing much of a threat as a receiver. Yeldon has a chance to lock up a 3 down role early and be a solid pick.
Chris Ivory (New York Jets) ADP of 8×01 (Range: 5×07 – 9×09): Despite back to back seasons of over 830 yards rushing, Ivory continues to largely be ignored as an option at RB. Despite splitting time with Chris Johnson, Ivory should once again be the lead ball carrier under new head coach Todd Bowles who understands what a downhill running game can bring to a team. New offensive coordinator Chan Gailey will lean on the run (he steadily improved in rushing yards from 18th in 2010 to 13th in 2011 and 6th in 2012). Ivory could be a RB2 or RB3 selection and health permitting, his biggest question mark, could wind up being one of those running backs who comes out of nowhere to finish in the top 12 at the end of the year.
David Cobb/Bishop Sankey (Tennessee Titans) ADPs of 9×08 and 9×10 (Ranges: 7×05 – 11×09 and 6×03 – 11×11): Much like my strategy above in taking the two running backs in Cleveland, a savvy fantasy football owner could play the draft right and procure the ground game of the Tennessee Titans and hope one of Cobb and Sankey shines enough to lock up the starting job and land a RB2 season out of the combination. Sankey ran for 569 yards in just 9 starts last season (1,012 yards prorated over 16 starts) and should do better than his 63 yards per start average now that he has a year under his belt and has a running threat at QB in Marcus Mariota whom should allow more open lanes inside and outside.
Conclusions
As mentioned earlier, this is a high risk strategy not for owners who are worried about trying to rely on potential team situations or trying to play matchups in a given week and hope their RB pays off just enough to help ensure a victory. This strategy is geared towards fantasy owners comfortable in riding top tier options elsewhere while letting 2 RBs bring up the rear and nudge their teams forward.
At the high end, a savvy owner would luck into one RB1 and possibly 2 if a team combo or injury strikes. Their dominance at QB, WR, and TE could lead to an utter trouncing of their league and opponents.
On the opposite side, the risk comes if none of their RBs pan out as expected/hoped for and/or an injury takes out one of their options and they end up missing the playoffs due to the lack of depth and quality as a result.
This strategy is a boom/bust strategy whereby you set yourself up for a probable 75-80% chance of making the playoffs and winning if you strike it hot but there’s no guarantee at the close of the draft. Trading and in-season management become greater priorities with this type of strategy.
