What The NFL Combine and Pro Days Can Tell Us About Draft Prospects

The NFL Draft is only four months away and the NFL Combine will be taking place next month in February followed by a glut of Pro Day workouts in March. Everybody and their mother, dog, crazy uncle, and creepy mailperson know that the 40 Yard Dash is overrated to some extent. As more drills are being trained for such as the 20 Yard Short Shuttle and 3 Cone, those drills are starting to be taken as a small piece of the puzzle by the fans as well.

This article is just a simple reminder that while numbers may not tell the entire story and the film is largely the be all & end all, there can still be some things gleaned from the NFL Combine and Pro Day workouts.

40 Yard Dash = Player lines up, usually in a sprinter’s stance nowadays, and runs 40 yards crossing the finish line. Measures straight line speed.
20 Yard Shuttle = Player lines up in the middle of a 10 yard distance. They launch one direction for 5 yards, reverse the opposite way for 10 yards, then return back the other way for the final 10 yards. Simplified: Right 5, Left 10, Right 10. Measures short area burst, hip flexibility, and explosion.
3 Cone Drill = Player lines up with a hand on the ground. They charge to the middle cone, touch it, then charge back to the first cone and touch that. Then they go outside the middle cone, looping inside the far cone in a figure eight before racing back around the middle cone and towards the finish line. Measures agility and waist bend.


In 2009, Alabama’s Andre Smith memorably showed up in unimpressive shape and proceeded to perform poorly in his drills. He weight in at 325 and ran a 5.28 40, had a 4.93 short shuttle time, and a 7.88 cone time. Nevertheless he was selected 6th Overall by the Cincinnati Bengals and has been a mainstay at RT since 2011.

By comparison, Phil Loadholt came out of Oklahoma at 6’8″ 332 pounds (4 inches taller than Smith) ad yet fell to the 54th overall selection where he was taken by the Minnesota Vikings. He became an immediate starter at RT and has started 78 games through the 2013 Season.

Comparing the two players, Andre Smith does not come off nearly as bad despite his conditioning. He displayed, at least in shorts, faster straight line speed and better control of agility.
– Andre Smith (6’4 325): 5.28 40 – 4.93 Shuttle – 7.88 Cone – 25″ Vertical – 19 Bench Reps
– Phil Loadholt (6’8 332): 5.45 40 – 4.77 Shuttle – 8.14 Cone – 28.5″ Vertical – 26 Bench Reps

Great Workouts Don’t Guarantee Being Drafted
Having a great Pro Day does not guarantee you a spot on the football field but can definitely get your foot in the door as shown with DT Desmond Bryant who has accumulated 14 Sacks over the past four year between Oakland and Cleveland in 2013.

He measured in at 6’6″ 288 pounds but came out of FCS Ivy League Harvard and put up impressive numbers for a man his size: 4.92 40 yard dash – 4.45 Short Shuttle – 7.44 Cone – 9’10” Broad Jump – 35 Bench Presses of 225 pounds. Despite being undrafted and having to sign as a free agent, Bryant should some speed and power for his size that gave him a shot in the NFL.

Wes Welker in 2004 measured in at 5’9″ 195 at his Pro Day workout. Despite not being drafted, he showcased what scouts saw on film: A player not particularly fast nor particularly explosive but incredibly quick in small areas cutting and running. He ran a very pedestrian 4.65 40 with only a 30″ vertical jump but killed it in the 20 yard short shuttle with a 4.01 time and a cone time of 7.09. He came into the league and became a dependable player with the Miami Dolphins before exploding onto the scene in 2007 with the Patriots and will now be playing in the Super Bowl as a member of the record setting offensive attack at Denver.

Questions and Tweeners
Scouts like to say that being a tweener is the last place a player wants to be, essentially a guy undefined position wise because then it’s up to the team to diagnose and find a position for that player.

Michael Turner was nicknamed “Burner” for a reason as he ran a 4.49 at the 2004 NFL Combine. He also did so at 237 pounds but therein came the dilemma: He was 5’11 237 and had also benched 22 times with a slow 7.54 cone time. Some teams could have seen him as a FB if he added 10 to 15 more pounds. He ended up falling to the 5th Round where he was snatched up by the San Diego Chargers and played sparingly behind LaDanian Tomlinson until finally being named starter when he went to Atlanta in 2008 as a free agent.

Similarly, WR Ramses Barden came out of FCS Cal Poly in 2009 and was a Round 3 selection. He measured in at 6’6 229 at the NFL Combine and put up a 4.55 40 with a 4.26 shuttle and 7.10 cone time. Upon being drafted by the New York Giants, he was thought of as the next big target for Eli Manning to throw to similar to Plaxico Burress. Instead, Barden has struggled as he has great ability as a small TE but lacks the physicality as a blocker at the NFL level while being too tall and big to be an adequate WR threat.

Elite Talent Prove They Are Elite Talent
There’s a reason top tier talent show off just how insanely athletic they are and why they are considered Top 15 picks if not 1st Round material outright (usually).

RB Adrian Peterson (6’1 217): 4.40 40 – 4.40 Shuttle – 7.09 Cone – 38.5″ Vertical – 10’7″ Broad Jump. This all coming off a broken collarbone as well.
RB Marshawn Lynch (5’11 215): 4.46 40 – 4.58 Shuttle – 7.09 Cone – 35.5″ Vertical – 10’5″ Broad Jump. Has earned the nickname Beast Mode for his punishing running ability in Buffalo and more recently, Seattle where he will be playing the Super Bowl.
WR Calvin Johnson (6’5 239): 4.35 40 – 42.5″ Vertical – 11’7″ Broad Jump. Megatron is the best WR in the NFL today.
TE Vernon Davis (6’3 254): 4.38 – 4.17 Shuttle – 7.00 Cone – 42″ Vertical – 10’8″ Broad Jump. One of the top TEs in the game and while his receiving his been up & down, he has made himself known as one of the NFL’s best blockers.
DE Mario Williams (6’7 295): 4.70 40 – 4.37 Shuttle – 7.21 Cone – 40.5″ Vertical – 10’0″ Broad Jump. Took some flak for being selected 1st Overall but has 76.5 Sacks through the 2013 NFL Season and had 30.5 over his first 3 years.
LB Brian Urlacher (6’4 258): 4.59 40 – 4.18 Shuttle – 6.94 Cone – 34″ Vertical – 10’2″ Broad Jump. Had played Safety at New Mexico but proved his athleticism at the Combine and proceeded to become one of the best LBs to ever play in NFL history.
CB Richard Sherman (6’3 195): 4.54 40 – 4.33 Shuttle – 6.82 Cone – 38″ Vertical – 10’5″ Broad Jump. Despite being a 5th Round selection, Sherman flashed incredible athleticism despite being taller than most CBs.

Teams Place Emphasis on Different Traits
Teams recognize the capabilities of the players they draft and don’t ask them to do more than is required of them. TE Chris Baker was a 3rd Round selection by the New York Jets in the 2002 NFL Draft and was mainly an in-line blocker utilized in underneath routes after running only 4.81 in the 40 but flashing a very good 6.95 cone time and 35″ vertical jump. From 2004-2007, Baker had 108 catches (including 72 between 2006 & 2007) with 12 TD despite averaging just 10.7 yards per reception.

In the 2008 NFL Draft, WR Limas Sweed flashed the ability to go deep with a 4.48 40 at 6’4″ 215 pounds despite slow 4.33 shuttle and 7.14 cone times. He was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2nd Round but struggled with his hands as well as general route running. He flashed the ability to be a deep threat, routinely burning defenders only to drop the ball and was eventually released.

RB LeSean McCoy was a 2nd Round selection in the 2009 NFL Draft in part because he ran a 4.50 40 but his insane ability to cut and juke in a step was displayed with an impressive 4.18 shuttle time. For comparison, power RB Shonn Greene was a 3rd Round selection whom ran a 4.62 40 and had a 4.40 shuttle time. He’s had a couple 1,000 yard seasons but has a career long run of just 36 yards. RB Cedric Peerman ran a blistering 4.34 40 but ran a very slow 4.29 shuttle time. Thus far he has mainly been a return specialist and ST gunner as a result of his straightline speed.

So as you watch the NFL Combine and Pro Day workouts, see if you can glean strengths or what a player could offer to your favorite NFL team.

Credit to NFL.com for feature image

 

Written by David Hunter

David Hunter enjoys writing about wrestling, sports, music, and horror!

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