Stock Market Game 2021

[tekcop]

I was up to 30 mil at one point.

You picked the most interesting month in years to play.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Quote by Jeff Foxworthy: Sophisticated people invest their money in stock portfolios. Rednecks invest their money in commemorative plates.... | SComedy

Stand-Up Comedy

scomedy.com

Sophisticated people invest their money in stock portfolios. Rednecks invest their money in commemorative plates.

I'm using my new found excess in cash to try and prepare for a future where my heart doesn't explode in 5 years.

I intend on putting small amounts into a lot of stock (at least at first) as I sort of am playing this mostly safe, with long term growth stocks being snagged. I've got like 20 some stocks earmarked.
My ADD and impulsive nature is a dangerous thing when I am reading the Motley Fool and WallStreetbets as my brain goes "Of course! This makes sense! Generational Wealth here I come!"

Like this stock: https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/08/could-the-trade-desk-be-a-millionaire-maker-stock/

The Fool had it behind their paywall a few months ago as the next Amazon, etc, something they have only done 27 times in 20 some years.

--
Bump this in 5 years when I am in medical debt and have to sell my house.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Quote by Jeff Foxworthy: Sophisticated people invest their money in stock portfolios. Rednecks invest their money in commemorative plates.... | SComedy

Stand-Up Comedy

scomedy.com

I'm using my new found excess in cash to try and prepare for a future where my heart doesn't explode in 5 years.

I intend on putting small amounts into a lot of stock (at least at first) as I sort of am playing this mostly safe, with long term growth stocks being snagged. I've got like 20 some stocks earmarked.
My ADD and impulsive nature is a dangerous thing when I am reading the Motley Fool and WallStreetbets as my brain goes "Of course! This makes sense! Generational Wealth here I come!"

Like this stock: https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/08/could-the-trade-desk-be-a-millionaire-maker-stock/

The Fool had it behind their paywall a few months ago as the next Amazon, etc, something they have only done 27 times in 20 some years.

--
Bump this in 5 years when I am in medical debt and have to sell my house.

Worth highlighting that over the last 10 months, that stock dropped by 20 points from its 97.11 high to September. In 6 months, it had dropped by 40 points to a low of 50.85 in mid-May.

It going from 19.40 on 3/23 to 97.11 on 12/20 is a little eyebrow-raising at such a fast, hard climb in such a short span (9 months).

From their site: "We (Motley Fool) generally recommend investors buy 25 stocks and hold them for at least 5 years."

https://www.quora.com/What-is-The-Motley-Fools-reputation-among-serious-stock-market-investors (very up/down opinions as expected)

 

[BruiserBrody]

I invested in 15 companies this AM with just under 500 bucks.
Most were safe long term companies but I tossed a few YOLOs that were cheapish with potential in there.
Still learning how this all works. Apparently ETrade doesn't let you buy cheapie stocks w/o giving them a commission that is often times more than what the stock was worth.
As stated above, unless my life crumbles, these are going to stay in the market for 20 years until I build Castle Grayskull in Upper Michigan and retire.

I still have 20+ stocks I will be slowly picking up over the next few months. I am sort of thinking I will spend X amount of each check on stock outside of my 401 K (6%) and the Wal-mart stock I have deducted from my check. (110 dollars bi-monthly - company adds/matches 15% on top of that automatically.)
I've read you should buy stocks in groups of 10 if possible, but that isn't feasible at my 42K a year salary.
Is it worth it to buy one share of an expensive stock? Sort of, but I sure feel the pinch in the short term. (Example a Berkshire Hathaway type of stock)
I'm going with the logic of I have to expect to net zero from this, and will only play with what I can afford to see vanish into the ether.
Is chasing dividends worth it? With the small potatoes I'm playing with, I am leaning on not- so far.

 

[HSJ]

I use ETrade and I don't think they charge commission anymore.

Honestly Brody, with $500 to start, I wouldn't expect it to go crazy overnight, especially if you are spreading it out to multiple companies. My portfolio is based around dividends so at least I can see money come into it every month even if I don't put anything in. I would suggest looking into that strategy.

 

[Dandy]

Are you sure those “cheapie” stocks you are looking at are not OTC (over the counter)? A lot of penny stocks are OTC.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Are you sure those “cheapie” stocks you are looking at are not OTC (over the counter)? A lot of penny stocks are OTC.

Maaaaybeeeee.... again I am new at this adventure. Maybe I need to read a few less "BUY XXX NOW!" "THE STOCK TO OWN UNTIL YOU RETIRE!!!!" articles and read a few FAQ pages.

*Looks at DOW... Down 400 points.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Last bump unless something comes up.

I did dip into "The Trade Desk" hype as the current 70 dollar stock has potential to triple (POTENTIAL!)

And NASDAQ: ASTS (Spacemobil Inc) is (pardon the pun) supposed to blast off and sits at only 11 bucks so this is one I should really throw some coins at.

I bought a few more stocks today including STOR, which Warren Buffet loves, and they offer a dividend.

KHC is Heinz, going for 40ish and projected to at least double long term. A durable brand name and a reasonable price for us poor folk.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Buffett (and Ben Graham and folks of that ilk) tend to prefer stocks with dividends. Definitely avoid the 'PICK X STOCK!' articles, you'll lose way more money trying to catch the wave (especially since the vast majority of those articles are aimed for the short-term, maybe a year out max).

The big thing is price point. STOR went from 27 almost 5 years ago to 33, which doesn't sound like much, but that's almost a 23% increase.

Most stocks, you're trying to get 10-15% return long-term to match the S&P500's average rate of return. Ideally, you'd be "better" but that's a very hard task to accomplish.

 

[cobainwasmurdered]

when HQ ruins brodys life with stocktips will it be better or worse than Agent with the coughsyrup?

 

[BruiserBrody]

Doubling down on my homework from the past month. SAVA looks juicy: https://investorplace.com/2021/10/sava-stock-could-explode-as-fda-approval-is-a-real-possibility/

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Doubling down on my homework from the past month. SAVA looks juicy: https://investorplace.com/2021/10/sava-stock-could-explode-as-fda-approval-is-a-real-possibility/

Interesting, wonder if their current lawsuit knocks the price down further but Sava's had negative Earnings per Share for the past 5 years, including 2021's -0.38. That's not good.

Ben Graham Value Calculator is a simple, easy to use tool if you want to do a bit of deeper digging into stock selection. On Yahoo's finance page under the 'Statistics' tab, you can find the price/book (Book Value per Share = Stock Price divided by Price/Book number).

So for example
Amazon is scored at 548.15 for Graham's Fair Value and rated +503.12 Overvalued.
Microsoft is scored at 58.74 for Graham's Fair Value and rated +403.03 Overvalued.
Walmart is scored at 48.47 for Graham's Fair Value and rated +186.95% Overvalued.
STOR is scored at 19.18 for Graham's Fair Value and rated +72.48% Overvalued. Worth noting it had been between $18-$24 in March-June of 2020.
TTD is scored at 5.57 for Graham's Fair Value and rated +1157.14% Overvalued.

Worth highlighting that Berkshire Hathaway-B stocks are considered undervalued by just -2.44% on that calculator.

 

[BruiserBrody]

$SAVA Been in two bio stocks over the years. Got bored with no action so I sold. One was a pharmaceutical that I paid $9.00 a share for. Sold on a Friday. On Monday morning it was $36.00. Ended up being bought out for $146.00. The other was Novavax. Bought at $47.00. Sold it at $48. Two weeks later it was $256 So the moral to my story is " No way in hell am I selling SAVA?

Cassava Sciences Inc (SAVA) Stock Price Today, Quote, Latest Discussions, Interactive Chart and News

Track Cassava Sciences Inc (SAVA) Stock Price, Quote, latest community messages, chart, news and other stock related information. Share your ideas and get valuable insights from the community of like minded traders and investors

stocktwits.com

100 bucks off their high mark. Steal or anchor!?!!??!!

--
To be be clear, I'm just dipping in my toe, so this won't break or make me. Following the endorphin rush. Most of what I bought is boring, long term growth stuff.
The YOLO gives me a tingle
--
It's this or that 45 dollar Fezzik figure I'm ogling....

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Cassava Sciences Inc (SAVA) Stock Price Today, Quote, Latest Discussions, Interactive Chart and News

Track Cassava Sciences Inc (SAVA) Stock Price, Quote, latest community messages, chart, news and other stock related information. Share your ideas and get valuable insights from the community of like minded traders and investors

stocktwits.com

100 bucks off their high mark. Steal or anchor!?!!??!!

--
To be be clear, I'm just dipping in my toe, so this won't break or make me. Following the endorphin rush. Most of what I bought is boring, long term growth stuff.
The YOLO gives me a tingle
--
It's this or that 45 dollar Fezzik figure I'm ogling....

Heh... depends on how long you want to hold it to be honest.

1 Month = 47.14 Start (L = 41.79, H = 70)
6 Months = 41.57 Start (L = 34.87, H = 135.30). Worth highlighting it dropped from 118 on 8/27 to 52 right now. I say this a lot but price point when you get in matters the most, above absolutely everything else.

Fun Aside: Wells Fargo (WFC) was showing as undervalued by 22% per the Ben Graham Calculator and that was at $48 (fair priced at $61). It's been at $28+ in stock price since December of 2003 outside of a couple hard drops when most stocks tanked and yet it strongly rebounded both times. From 3/1/14 to 9/1/19 it stayed consistently in that $50-$55 ballpark and its EPS has been above 4 from 2017-2019 (2020 was still 0.41).

 

[HSJ]

Honestly Brody, if you're looking for YOLO deals with money you don't care about losing, you'll get better odds with Crypto than stocks.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

A look at what Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway holdings are company-wise. Worth noting is KHC (per Brody's post). Wells Fargo is one that intrigues me as being undervalued at the moment, same for General Motors.

Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio Tracker

www.cnbc.com

Other intriguing undervalued larger companies not owned by Buffett: Honda Motor Company (HMC), Citigroup (C), Aflac (AFL), Capital One (COF), ViacomCBS Inc (VIAC)

 

[BruiserBrody]

A look at what Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway holdings are company-wise. Worth noting is KHC (per Brody's post). Wells Fargo is one that intrigues me as being undervalued at the moment, same for General Motors.

Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio Tracker

www.cnbc.com

Other intriguing undervalued larger companies not owned by Buffett: Honda Motor Company (HMC), Citigroup (C), Aflac (AFL), Capital One (COF), ViacomCBS Inc (VIAC)

IIRC I bought GM stock. I am going to dip into Ford too. Only 15 bucks a share and they delivered a bunch of good news/projections/promises this week.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Bill Gates-backed ESS — which makes giant batteries out of iron, salt and water — starts trading

ESS is building long-duration energy-storage batteries made of iron, salt and water. It went public on Monday through a SPAC with Acon S2 Investment Corp.

www.cnbc.com

I first saw this news this AM after the stock had already doubled+. I jumped in at 20 and it went up another 6 bucks or so since then. Hopefully I am on a good wave, but likely the market will self correct in a few days and 20 might be where it sits.


---
Edit- @HarleyQuinn I am digesting your advice and added some of your notes to my STONKS notes. Thank you!

 

[BruiserBrody]

Snooped out STNE yesterday. Up 11% today.

*Ted Dibiase laugh*

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Snooped out STNE yesterday. Up 11% today.

*Ted Dibiase laugh*

I set up a Watchlist through Yahoo's Finance page of about 28 stocks that were "undervalued" via Ben Graham's Calculator and pretended to invest a little over $55,000 total (Note: I put the majority of any real investments in a few Vanguard funds). I set up the Trade Date as 10/8 just to follow it and see how it does Month to Month.

Mazda is already up 10%, US Steel Corp is 8%, and Panasonic is 7%.

My overall target would be to be up around 8-12%. I may try and "follow" it via this thread for curiosity/research sake.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Bitcoin futures ETF finally arrives on the NYSE: Here’s what it is and how it works

In a milestone for cryptocurrency, ProShares will bring a bitcoin-linked ETF to the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday under the ticker symbol BITO.

www.fastcompany.com

I'm intrigued. Seems like something that will blow up tomorrow????

 

[BruiserBrody]

Bitcoin futures ETF finally arrives on the NYSE: Here’s what it is and how it works

In a milestone for cryptocurrency, ProShares will bring a bitcoin-linked ETF to the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday under the ticker symbol BITO.

www.fastcompany.com

I'm intrigued. Seems like something that will blow up tomorrow????

The Bitcoin futures ETF's that are coming are an expensive way to own BTC. It's not a regular spot ETF but a rolling futures ETF. Since BTC futures are often in contango (more expensive in future) this can be a significant cost drag as the contracts roll month to month. Futures ETF's are better for intraday trading.

I avoided the shiny new thing and bought more TTD instead.

 

[BruiserBrody]

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/att-stock-owners-can-profit-if-they-hang-on-to-their-spin-off-shares-2021-08-05

Why This 1 Stock Is a Better Bet Than Discovery Ahead of Its Merger | The Motley Fool

The television company's plans reveal a potential investment opportunity.

www.fool.com

Is there a play to be made here? I read that At&T stock may drop 5-7 dollars at first due to the stock dilution or whatever....

 

[BruiserBrody]

I was a SAVA bag holder (one mighty share ) until yesterday when it shot up 31 dollars in the AM. That was my first big win. NIO has also done well for me in my modest investing of a few shares.
My long term champion is supposed to be the Trade Desk, which I have 13 shares of so far. BUT so far it has gone up a little, lost a little, up a bit, down a bit, and with multiple shares, I am overall losing so far, but recent updated projections have a new target price of 125ish (72 now, my average buy in is 74ish).
I have a SPY share, and an ARKK share for the long haul. I've been digging into ETFs, which can be pricey, so I want to pick winners and not just toss my limited budget into the abyss.
https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vgt/cumulative-returns This one would be the big winner if they can keep up the 40+ percent of growth/return that it has the last 2 years..... BUT it costs a shit ton and if the market "corrects"/falls due to inflation/eventual Federal rates rising that kind of return is probably unlikely. Super tempting though.
Overall, I have a wide range of stocks, only 5 are in the red IIRC, with 25 or so at least tossing some shekels back at me. Overall I have a "unrealized gain" of 80+ dollars after roughly 2 months of investing.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

I set up a Watchlist through Yahoo's Finance page of about 28 stocks that were "undervalued" via Ben Graham's Calculator and pretended to invest a little over $55,000 total (Note: I put the majority of any real investments in a few Vanguard funds). I set up the Trade Date as 10/8 just to follow it and see how it does Month to Month.

My overall target would be to be up around 8-12%. I may try and "follow" it via this thread for curiosity/research sake.

October 10/8 = $55,000 in 26 Stocks
November 10/8 = $55,626.49 (+1.13%). S&P 500 = +7% for comparison's sake. Biggest Single Gainers = US Steel Corp at 29.86% & Kohl's Corp at 27.25%. Biggest Single Losers = Viacom at -9.97% and Capital One Financial Group at -7.87%.

TTD jumped 20 points in 3 days from 11/5 to 11/8, which is mindboggling.

Motley Fool's "Top 2021 Stock Picks" (Notable Names) updated as of March 4, 2021. So initial price taken from March 8th, 2021.
iRobot = 119 down to 90
Upwork = 49 down to 37
Fiverr = 244 down to 161
Redfin = 75 down to 52
Beyond Meat = 142 down to 98
Etsy = 221 up to 261
Zillow = 151 down to 68
Pinterest = 72 down to 47
Roku = 360 down to 277
Salesforce.com = 212 up to 310
Walt Disney Company = 197 down to 177
Total Price for 1 Share = $1,842 down to $1,578 (-14% Total)

Even with those sky-high "hits", overall you've had a pretty major loss over the last 8 months.

 

[BruiserBrody]

The Trade Desk blew up 20 dollars plus yesterday. I scored $275 in increase! (7.7 percent of my entire portfolio)


I think I am going to take part in this: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ari...-things-for-anet-investors-to-know-2021-11-02 The stock is up up up over the past few weeks, so buying high sucks, but the investor sites all seem to think the money train is going to keep rolling.

I sold my lonely SAVA share off. He served me well with the 30 some dollar increase. He started bleeding money again so I took the profit. Stock was high risk to begin with.

So what's the normal play for something like the Trade Desk blowing up? Should I have snagged the profits and assumed it will inch downward a little, then buy back in, or ride it out to the price target of 128-135 while adding more friends to take part in the ride?

---
My portfolio has never been in the red, not bad for a block head counting on tips and research.

WMT stock is still going to be my big winner overall as they are on the march to 175 and I am adding roughly 2 stocks a month right off my paycheck, with the company tossing in a 15 percent bonus on top of my buy in.

401K remains at 8 percent coming from me, 6 from Wally.

 

[Dandy]

Just remember that when you sell anything without holding it 366 days, you pay regular income tax and anything 366+ is long term capital gains tax. That isn’t to say you should never sell less than a year; just be aware of it. Calculate your taxes owed and set it aside in an account designated for paying the tax when you file.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Just remember that when you sell anything without holding it 366 days, you pay regular income tax and anything 366+ is long term capital gains tax. That isn’t to say you should never sell less than a year; just be aware of it. Calculate your taxes owed and set it aside in an account designated for paying the tax when you file.

Thank you very much for the reminder. I am intending to not sell most of this stuff for 20 years, unless the market demands it (Company tanks), so hopefully not an issue too often.
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I am battling from within to stick to (non leveraged) ETFs to just play it long and safe. I bought into Arkk and Spy. VTI, VGT, VOO, IWF are all on the short list of desirables. QQQ is also a big favorite it seems.

--

Annoyed with myself that I didn't pile on TTD more on Fri when the stock dipped all the way to 68 as the news over the past week or so was that Hedge Funds were dropping it and the companies who do similar business underperformed, so doom and gloom was floating in the TTD air.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Annoyed with myself that I didn't pile on TTD more on Fri when the stock dipped all the way to 68 as the news over the past week or so was that Hedge Funds were dropping it and the companies who do similar business underperformed, so doom and gloom was floating in the TTD air.

Yeah, you'll find that a lot of individual stocks are very volatile precisely for this reason. Analysts think they know deep insider knowledge so panic = prices plummet (especially if analysts expect big revenue numbers and they aren't met even if the company is profitable anyway, a very important distinction to make) and vice versa if analysts are hyped up = prices skyrocket (as with TTD, especially if revenues exceed analyst expectations).

Mr. Market - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ben Graham devotes an entire chapter to a character titled Mr. Market. The (rough) analogy is imagine if Mr. Market was your best friend and every day he comes to you high in spirit when a stock is good, telling you that it's a great time to buy because it'll shoot to the moon, and depressed when a stock is bad, telling you the sky is falling and you must sell. As a rational person, you should know that it's the inverse that you should do: Sell High, Buy Low. The other characteristic was that as an investor, you are never beholden to Mr. Market and his fluctuating mood swings. You have the power to accept a low sale price, sell a stock high, or refuse to deal with him that day and just hold. Mr. Market is there to serve you, and his prices will always be changing day to day, week to week, month to month, etc.

 

[Dandy]

Is there a chapter on Mr. Emotionally Invested Sports Fan that a friend of mine could read?