2016 Election Thread (ROUND FIVE!)

[909]

IMO the polls didn't take into account one thing.

That the perception of Hillary being low energy and not doing enough campaign events was also the reality. The campaign never went to Wisconsin or into rural areas to hold rallies, but I lost track of how many fundraisers they had. It just fed into the perception that she didn't care about regular people. Not having events in these places led potential Hillary voters to become extremely demotivated or go and change their mind.

 

[bigolsmitty]

I mean that they underestimated the amount of white, working-class voters that showed up

Did they? What evidence is there of this?

Trump got fewer votes than Romney. It's just that Clinton got even fewer votes than Obama.

 

[bigolsmitty]

How exactly would you calibrate a poll to account for low energy, 909?

 

[909]

How exactly would you calibrate a poll to account for low energy, 909?

You can't, obviously. Polls are supposed to predict the outcome and they did not, so I don't have any answer for that. They were built on assumptions that a 70 year old, uncharismatic white woman was going to maintain the Obama coalition and didn't account for whether or not she put the work in.

 

[bigolsmitty]

No, they were built to measure public opinion, and they performed that task with an average rate of error (about 2%) as that seen in presidential elections over the past 40 years.

 

[909]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html#polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_trump_vs_clinton-5591.html

"2%"

 

[bigolsmitty]

The national polls were closer to right than they were in 2012. The state polls in the Midwestern states were off more, but that is accounted for by the number of undecideds and related uncertainty, which Silver constantly emphasized.

 

[909]

I was also going to say that if Bernie Sanders had turned over his donor list to the DNC like any other candidate, the Clinton campaign would have been able to contact those people instead of having to do fundraisers for the wealthy. Whoops!

 

[kkktookmybabyaway]

you're the only kkk it's good to see!

Whoa, I haven't seen dude in forever. Welcome back bud.

Oh I ain't staying! Just checking in to see how y'all are coping ever since we got hit with a big dose of Freedom last week.

(It's been a decade or so, but I don't need to break keyfabe... right?)

 

[snuffbox]

Couple of points of order.

1) Nate Silver's model was right

2) All the talk of a blue electoral college wall was so much bullshit *cough snuffbox*

3) Looks like the FBI and Russia swung things just enough

Not sure if it actually helps to throw me under the bus but if it does, great. Whatever helps. But, as I recall it, I lacked the confidence in the American Voter that folks on this website and around the country shared. I didnt "think" that Trump would win, and the Electoral College was a big reason for that, but I always kept quite leery about the ability of American voters to get this or anything else right. I think that confidence would be misplaced in any generation throughout US history. And, as a person living in contemporary Wisconsin, I've seen firsthand how misguided and easily duped voters are.

But again, if it helps you, go for it.

If it helps you to think that a reality tv star who was given millions of dollars by his dad is going to look out for the little man, I hope that works out well for you.

If you think that larger national debt, more laws, and less freedoms means more freedom, hey, whatever gets you through the night.

In short, if you worship a political party, you will take whatever lesson from this you'll need to take to continue to feel good about worshiping a political party, whether it be D or R. If you actually care about other people or about actual concepts like freedom, your work is cut out for you but that's not new; you just have to continue that work and find extra energy to do a little bit more.

 

[Bored]

you're the only kkk it's good to see!

Whoa, I haven't seen dude in forever. Welcome back bud.

Oh I ain't staying! Just checking in to see how y'all are coping ever since we got hit with a big dose of Freedom last week.

(It's been a decade or so, but I don't need to break keyfabe... right?)

More like breitbarttookmybabyaway, amirite?

 

[bigolsmitty]

Just a friendly poke, snuffy, I'm on your side bruh. Hope this doesn't affect wookie suit Wednesdays.

Kkktmba, thanks for the congrats on fatherhood. Kid lucked out & got his mom's looks & brains.

 

[bigolsmitty]

Donald Trump wins: Russian parliament bursts into applause upon hearing result

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-wins-us-election-russia-putin-result-a7406866.html

 

[BigD]

Us Canadians gunna be plowed over by the states in WWIII: USA & RUSSIA VS THE WORLD

 

[909]

Sounds like Mitt Romney might be Secretary of State. That's the only positive thing I've heard with regards to this in a week.

 

[kkktookmybabyaway]

More like breitbarttookmybabyaway, amirite?

More like the TSM moderators drained the swamp of center-right viewpoints. :-X

I actually do have a legit question that I'm hoping some of you could answer... why in the blue hell was Kaine the VP selection? I thought Senator Booker from New Jersey would have been an excellent pick. (I don't pay attention to this stuff anymore, so maybe there's something about this guy that I'm missing... like his ability to fly or use x-ray vision.)

 

[bigolsmitty]

My guess is it was an attempt to appeal to whitebread conservative suburban women. Also, everyone seems to really like Tim Kaine.

 

[Byron The Bulb]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-campaign-neglect_us_582cacb0e4b058ce7aa8b861

In Michigan alone, a senior battleground state operative told HuffPost that the state party and local officials were running at roughly one-tenth the paid canvasser capacity that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) had when he ran for president in 2004. Desperate for more human capital, the state party and local officials ended up raising $300,000 themselves to pay 500 people to help canvass in the election’s closing weeks. By that point, however, they were operating in the dark. One organizer said that in a precinct in Flint, they were sent to a burned down trailer park. No one had taken it off the list of places to visit because no one had been there until the final weekend. Clinton lost the state by 12,000 votes.

[...]

A senior official from Clinton’s campaign noted that they did have a large staff presence in Michigan and Wisconsin (200 and 180 people respectively) while also stressing that one of the reasons they didn’t do more was, in part, because of psychological games they were playing with the Trump campaign. They recognized that Michigan, for example, was a vulnerable state and felt that if they could keep Trump away ― by acting overly confident about their chances ― they would win it by a small margin and with a marginal resource allocation.

tfw you're so busy planning 12 dimensional chess moves you don't realize your idiot fascist opponent is beating your ass at checkers

 

[Mickey Massuco]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-campaign-neglect_us_582cacb0e4b058ce7aa8b861

A senior official from Clinton’s campaign noted that they did have a large staff presence in Michigan and Wisconsin (200 and 180 people respectively) while also stressing that one of the reasons they didn’t do more was, in part, because of psychological games they were playing with the Trump campaign. They recognized that Michigan, for example, was a vulnerable state and felt that if they could keep Trump away ― by acting overly confident about their chances ― they would win it by a small margin and with a marginal resource allocation.

 

[Big Papa Paegan]

So we had one person who was fit for the job but surrounded herself with incompetence and one person too incompetent for the job that surrounded himself with people that knew what they were doing.

'MURICA

 

[KOAB]

just pretend I inserted this post with clips of Trump saying "Under budget, ahead of schedule." and "I choose the best folks... believe me."

 

[snuffbox]

More like breitbarttookmybabyaway, amirite?

More like the TSM moderators drained the swamp of center-right viewpoints. :-X

I actually do have a legit question that I'm hoping some of you could answer... why in the blue hell was Kaine the VP selection? I thought Senator Booker from New Jersey would have been an excellent pick. (I don't pay attention to this stuff anymore, so maybe there's something about this guy that I'm missing... like his ability to fly or use x-ray vision.)

Who's the governor of New Jersey?

 

[909]

Tim Kaine was a lame choice. The reason why is because in a cycle where people cared more about entertainment than policy, the Clinton ticket brought no charisma to the table. This became really apparent to me when Biden said he wished he could take Trump behind the gym and Tim Kaine stood around with his finger up his ass not really saying anything to get a camera in front of him. Say whatever you want about Biden's comment, but it was entertaining and it was interesting. Two things Tim Kaine is not.

The Clinton campaign suffered from death by a thousand cuts, but I think this particular cut was a really big one.

 

[909]

Also in the aftermath of this, what I have learned is that Trump will be so unpopular that the furthest left person will be nominated by the Dems and be able to win in 2020. Limousine liberalism died the cruelest of deaths last week, and I'm good with that.

South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) argued on Friday in an implicit rebuke of Donald Trump that the Republican Party must be a party for "all citizens, regardless of their race, gender or where they are born and raised.”

Speaking at the Federalist Society’s National Lawyers Convention in Washington, Haley said that the President-elect's unexpected election victory "was not an affirmation of the way Republicans have conducted themselves," as quoted by the Washington Post.

The report quoted Haley as saying that while she was never Trump's "biggest cheerleader," she saw his election as an opportunity for the GOP to remind voters that it will offer opportunities “to all citizens, regardless of their race, gender or where they are born and raised.”

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/nikki-haley-rebukes-republicans-trump

So I take it her meeting didn't go well.

 

[BigD]

His post proves it. We're getting 8 years of Trump followed by Pence.

 

[909]

Who is we? Don't you live in Cucknada.

 

[BigD]

The human race.

 

[909]

If Trump gets eight years, we won't even be around for eight years.

 

[snuffbox]

Tim Kaine was a lame choice. The reason why is because in a cycle where people cared more about entertainment than policy, the Clinton ticket brought no charisma to the table. This became really apparent to me when Biden said he wished he could take Trump behind the gym and Tim Kaine stood around with his finger up his ass not really saying anything to get a camera in front of him. Say whatever you want about Biden's comment, but it was entertaining and it was interesting. Two things Tim Kaine is not.

The Clinton campaign suffered from death by a thousand cuts, but I think this particular cut was a really big one.

The Dems couldnt have Booker for VP because it wouldn't have helped their (at the time) plan to regain the Senate.

There probably were better choices, though. Franken, maybe? Or just not a Congressperson.

 

[909]

I don't know if Booker was a good choice either. Just know that Kaine wasn't.