“How did Donald Trump become our president in 2016?” Yang asked a crowd in New York City this past May. “The explanations go something like Russia, Facebook, the FBI, maybe a dash of Hillary Clinton thrown in there. But I looked at the numbers … and Donald Trump is our president for one simple reason: We automated away 4 million manufacturing jobs in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa, all of the swing states that Donald Trump needed to win.”
Thus, to beat back the rising tide of far-right nationalism, the federal government must restore the middle class’s economic security — by providing every American a basic income of $12,000 a year.
There are a wide variety of problems with this story. For one, there is very little evidence that objective economic conditions in the postindustrial Midwest were a major factor in (let alone, the sole cause of) Donald Trump’s election. For another, it is not clear how a $1,000 monthly check would function as an adequate replacement for the income, community, and sense of purpose that good union jobs once provided Rust Belt workers.
But the biggest flaw in Yang’s grand theory is that its foundational premise is (almost certainly) wrong. Robots are not on the cusp of inevitably, irrevocably condemning wide swaths of the U.S. population to joblessness. Were automation progressing at the rate Yang claims, productivity growth would be rapidly accelerating. Instead, across Western economies, productivity gains are tepid. And if Moore’s Law were rendering an ever-wider swathe of workers redundant, the labor-force-participation rate would be in free fall; instead, it has been steadily rising, while the unemployment rate has sunk near half-century lows.