BruiserBrody
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Chat! culturecrossfire.slack.com
2024 Election
- Thread starter Fall of Epic
- Start date
BruiserBrody
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BruiserBrody
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270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election
www.270towin.com
She could take the other swings states but this is what I feel good about being locked in. Florida and Iowa are if things go perfectly.
Could have passed this off as my own take but rather not.
snuffbox
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In a frank internal meeting, The New York Times wrestled with its political role | Semafor
It’s an extraordinary look inside a key American institution under intense external scrutiny and internal pressure.
www.semafor.com
Turns out others noticed the disparity in media coverage over the past several months (and years).
And why have so many people remained committed to twitter after it was given to Musk?
Mickey Massuco
wipeoff
Top Battlegrounds – RCP Average
This definitely isn’t looking good.
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It's our trash pile and he'll be gone before we are.
RCP includes polls run by GOP funded polling companies like Trafalgar, InsiderAdvantage, Rasmussen, etc. And even with all of these guys all of these states are within the margin of error? I'm feeling ok still.Top Battlegrounds – RCP Average
www.realclearpolling.com
This definitely isn’t looking good.
Yeah. Also Twitter continues to be ubiquitous. How can I stop using it if it's constantly linked in every news story, funny meme, casual conversation, etc? As long as it continues to be relevant I'm going to maintain an account there just so I can keep up with stuff. That said I use it at least half as much as I did before Elon just because he's made every aspect of it worse even before you get into the actual user base changes.
Gary
Mind. Body. Light. Sound.
I only joined Twitter to follow Dril and cute animal content.
snuffbox
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I mean, to each their own.
And agreed on the RCP averages. Several of us have said those things before. In recent elections, Rasmussen has been wrong by a lot and there's never seemed to be much/any effort to correct; that kind of behavior makes it seem, to me, willful. And that willfulness, I think, extends to RCP itself as they seem adamant about keeping these GOP polls in their aggregate. Another reason I don't follow RCP much: check out their news article listing on their home page. It's always a bunch of far right things.
And agreed on the RCP averages. Several of us have said those things before. In recent elections, Rasmussen has been wrong by a lot and there's never seemed to be much/any effort to correct; that kind of behavior makes it seem, to me, willful. And that willfulness, I think, extends to RCP itself as they seem adamant about keeping these GOP polls in their aggregate. Another reason I don't follow RCP much: check out their news article listing on their home page. It's always a bunch of far right things.
BruiserBrody
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BruiserBrody
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snuffbox
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Revered Nevada Politics Expert Jon Ralston Makes Bombshell Prediction About Who Will Win State
Jon Ralston, the CEO and editor of The Nevada Independent, predicted that Kamala Harris would win the state's six electoral votes.
www.mediaite.com
Tino Standard
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That executive editor is so full of shit.In a frank internal meeting, The New York Times wrestled with its political role | Semafor
It’s an extraordinary look inside a key American institution under intense external scrutiny and internal pressure.
Turns out others noticed the disparity in media coverage over the past several months (and years).
And why have so many people remained committed to twitter after it was given to Musk?
Seriously. Get the fuck out of here with this. You are literally being asked to just call a spade a spade. That’s not being a partisan mouthpiece. It’s doing your fucking job.
Fall of Epic
Epic Reine
Question: will the election be called tomorrow night or in the days after?
Tino Standard
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We might have a decent idea of who’s going to win, but I don’t think it will be called tomorrow night.
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Also all of the polls with a start date of 10/20 or later in the General Election have Kamala leading or are tied outside of the Atlas Intel poll, which was already shit on all over Twitter for its massive Trump leanings. The ones started before 10/20 all favored Trump, so you "average" those out and of course Trump leads but there is no weight given towards recency polling.
2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling
2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling
snuffbox
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Yeah, if it's like 2020 we might be able to go to bad late in the night feeling optimistic but it wasn't official until Pennsylvania the Saturday after the election.
Mickey Massuco
wipeoff
I hope you guys are right but even this site:
All the polls from any of the mainstream pollsters are within the margin of error. I’m not saying Kamala won’t win, I think she will. but it being this close, I don’t know how anyone can honestly say they’re sure or comfortable about what will happen. Especially when you consider that trump has outperformed his polls both times. The electoral college may not reflect how close it is because of how that works, but it is close.
What are the swing states? See polling in 2024 battlegrounds as race clock winds down
Seven states could flip the results of the 2024 presidential election. See the latest polling as voters head to the polls on Tuesday and the race comes to an end.
www.usatoday.com
All the polls from any of the mainstream pollsters are within the margin of error. I’m not saying Kamala won’t win, I think she will. but it being this close, I don’t know how anyone can honestly say they’re sure or comfortable about what will happen. Especially when you consider that trump has outperformed his polls both times. The electoral college may not reflect how close it is because of how that works, but it is close.
BruiserBrody
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Got hit with an ad from Tucker Carlson of all people telling me that he's been in politics for 30 years and never picked a side (Ha) until THIS election. "Walz and Harris are totalitarians"
Elon was on Rogan saying the usual "Harris will turn the whole country into California"
Elon was on Rogan saying the usual "Harris will turn the whole country into California"
This is why I'm confident. The amount of lying has never been worse. The crowd sizes have never been smaller.
More women are going to vote for Kamala Harris than have voted for any Democrat before.
More men may go to vote for Trump than ever before. The problem with this is that men are not reliable voters.
cawp.rutgers.edu
I also see Republicans running multi-time losers on the downballots of these swing states. People who lose elections do not win them later on. These people are also doing the Hillary Clinton shit of not visiting swing states so that they can visit California and New York instead. I'm gonna tell you I know that's a failed strategy because I already saw it fail.
The point is that pollsters were egregiously wrong in 2020 and then they were egregiously wrong from a completely different standpoint in 2022, and yet for whatever reason people still believe them. They have explicitly stated that they took measures to ensure they did not underestimate Trump support. Some of these pollsters have stated that they juiced their own polls in his favor this time. And yet for some reason left leaning people still recite these polls as if they're gospel or something to be worried about. These polls themselves are completely meaningless. Polling is an industry, and you can take that however you want to. Now I will present everyone with some information.I hope you guys are right but even this site:
What are the swing states? See polling in 2024 battlegrounds as race clock winds down
Seven states could flip the results of the 2024 presidential election. See the latest polling as voters head to the polls on Tuesday and the race comes to an end.www.usatoday.com
All the polls from any of the mainstream pollsters are within the margin of error. I’m not saying Kamala won’t win, I think she will. but it being this close, I don’t know how anyone can honestly say they’re sure or comfortable about what will happen. Especially when you consider that trump has outperformed his polls both times. The electoral college may not reflect how close it is because of how that works, but it is close.
More women are going to vote for Kamala Harris than have voted for any Democrat before.
More men may go to vote for Trump than ever before. The problem with this is that men are not reliable voters.
Gender Differences in Voter Turnout
Voter turnout refers to the proportion of eligible voters who cast a ballot in an election. Women have registered and voted at higher rates than men in every presidential election since 1980, with the turnout gap between women and men growing slightly larger with each successive presidential...
cawp.rutgers.edu
I also see Republicans running multi-time losers on the downballots of these swing states. People who lose elections do not win them later on. These people are also doing the Hillary Clinton shit of not visiting swing states so that they can visit California and New York instead. I'm gonna tell you I know that's a failed strategy because I already saw it fail.
As for me, I'm not stressed at all and I'm gonna spend the evening with my boy Johnnie Walker.
I would also point out that every poll that gets discussed in this thread has compromised results. What do I mean by that? When there's been a previous incident (underestimating Trump), these companies are effectively publishing future results based on the integrity of their name. But why do they have any integrity? In the first place they were wrong. They were arrogant in assuming that they had the proper scientific method to publish an accurate poll. Then they said that in order to continue to publish polls, they have to come up with new methods in order to prevent themselves from underestimating Trump support. Does this mean they edit the results? Or are they looking for a certain kind of person to answer their phone call? How is that a scientific process? I guess what I'm saying here is that these polls are fake news. They shouldn't have any meaning anymore, the results of them have been compromised for the sole purpose of hedging against losing more of their integrity. They've demonstrated to everyone that there's been a sequence of events that display a complete lack of integrity in that industry.
I keep saying that it's an industry to point out that there's money exchanging hands over all this stuff. Polling is not something that takes place outside of the political machine, the organizations aren't steadfast institutions, even non-profit organizations have money changing hands. It's not their job to be an instrument of neutrality either. That's not their place.
Now even considering that I'm saying polls are fake news, if one's to believe those polls then they should be pretty sure that Harris is going to win. The pro-Trump results that we're getting are from partisan organizations. Lots of these are polls that could ONLY have a pro-Trump result because that's the purpose for which they're being published. It's a deliberate effort to cast doubt on the actual results of the election. How could my guy be losing when all these polls of dubious origin say that he was gonna win? Republicans are flooding the zone with 'polls' because people who don't pay a lot of attention could be suckered into thinking something happened when it didn't. They've already bought a large social media platform and changed everyone's algorithms so that right wing trash is being pumped into your face whenever you open that website. None of this stuff is some conspiracy either, just go look at it. They're trying to mislead the public.
But what I'm saying is that you shouldn't believe any of these polls, that I think Harris is going to win because of other factors.
I keep saying that it's an industry to point out that there's money exchanging hands over all this stuff. Polling is not something that takes place outside of the political machine, the organizations aren't steadfast institutions, even non-profit organizations have money changing hands. It's not their job to be an instrument of neutrality either. That's not their place.
Now even considering that I'm saying polls are fake news, if one's to believe those polls then they should be pretty sure that Harris is going to win. The pro-Trump results that we're getting are from partisan organizations. Lots of these are polls that could ONLY have a pro-Trump result because that's the purpose for which they're being published. It's a deliberate effort to cast doubt on the actual results of the election. How could my guy be losing when all these polls of dubious origin say that he was gonna win? Republicans are flooding the zone with 'polls' because people who don't pay a lot of attention could be suckered into thinking something happened when it didn't. They've already bought a large social media platform and changed everyone's algorithms so that right wing trash is being pumped into your face whenever you open that website. None of this stuff is some conspiracy either, just go look at it. They're trying to mislead the public.
But what I'm saying is that you shouldn't believe any of these polls, that I think Harris is going to win because of other factors.
I'm confident for a number of logical based reasons and also because 909 is so sure and I trust him. Some people turn to groundhogs to predict weather. I turn to 909 for elections.
BruiserBrody
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Final Nate Silver model. He has Trump just edging electorally based on a +0.1 lead in PA
However out of the 80,000 times he ran his statistical model, Harris won 40,012.
So is 50.0015% Harris v 49.985% Trump
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In a shocker, Rogan endorsed Trump while plugging his Elon pod.
However out of the 80,000 times he ran his statistical model, Harris won 40,012.
So is 50.0015% Harris v 49.985% Trump
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In a shocker, Rogan endorsed Trump while plugging his Elon pod.
The most useless result possible of course. 538 has managed to swing from 53 wins out of 100 for Trump to 50/50 as of the moment. LET THE HEDGING BEGIN.