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2024 Election

Who is going to win?

  • Kamala Harris

    Votes: 22 84.6%

  • Donald Trump

    Votes: 4 15.4%
  • Total voters
    26
  • Poll closed .
snuffbox

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cobainwasmurdered

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cobainwasmurdered

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tekcop said:
It's our trash pile and he'll be gone before we are.
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Yeah. Also Twitter continues to be ubiquitous. How can I stop using it if it's constantly linked in every news story, funny meme, casual conversation, etc? As long as it continues to be relevant I'm going to maintain an account there just so I can keep up with stuff. That said I use it at least half as much as I did before Elon just because he's made every aspect of it worse even before you get into the actual user base changes.
 
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I mean, to each their own.

And agreed on the RCP averages. Several of us have said those things before. In recent elections, Rasmussen has been wrong by a lot and there's never seemed to be much/any effort to correct; that kind of behavior makes it seem, to me, willful. And that willfulness, I think, extends to RCP itself as they seem adamant about keeping these GOP polls in their aggregate. Another reason I don't follow RCP much: check out their news article listing on their home page. It's always a bunch of far right things.
 
T

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snuffbox said:
www.semafor.com

In a frank internal meeting, The New York Times wrestled with its political role | Semafor

It’s an extraordinary look inside a key American institution under intense external scrutiny and internal pressure.
www.semafor.com www.semafor.com

Turns out others noticed the disparity in media coverage over the past several months (and years).

And why have so many people remained committed to twitter after it was given to Musk?
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That executive editor is so full of shit.

“I don’t think they’re very interested in the hard work that everyone in this room is doing. They’re not interested in genuinely revelatory fact-based reporting that helps people navigate the most polarized issues of our time,” Kahn said of the critics.
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“What they’re interested in is having us be a mouthpiece for their already predetermined point of view. That’s what the most vocal critics are asking for. They’re asking us to do a better job projecting their point of view to more people. That of course is not our role, that is actually the opposite of independent journalism. That’s agenda-driven partisan journalism. They want to see The New York Times reaffirming their own priors. They’re not really interested in fact-based reporting — or frankly, independent polling — that doesn’t line up with their priors.”
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Seriously. Get the fuck out of here with this. You are literally being asked to just call a spade a spade. That’s not being a partisan mouthpiece. It’s doing your fucking job.
 
HarleyQuinn

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cobainwasmurdered said:
RCP includes polls run by GOP funded polling companies like Trafalgar, InsiderAdvantage, Rasmussen, etc. And even with all of these guys all of these states are within the margin of error? I'm feeling ok still.
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Also all of the polls with a start date of 10/20 or later in the General Election have Kamala leading or are tied outside of the Atlas Intel poll, which was already shit on all over Twitter for its massive Trump leanings. The ones started before 10/20 all favored Trump, so you "average" those out and of course Trump leads but there is no weight given towards recency polling.

www.realclearpolling.com

2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
 
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Tino Standard said:
We might have a decent idea of who’s going to win, but I don’t think it will be called tomorrow night.
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Yeah, if it's like 2020 we might be able to go to bad late in the night feeling optimistic but it wasn't official until Pennsylvania the Saturday after the election.
 
Mickey Massuco

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I hope you guys are right but even this site:

www.usatoday.com

What are the swing states? See polling in 2024 battlegrounds as race clock winds down

Seven states could flip the results of the 2024 presidential election. See the latest polling as voters head to the polls on Tuesday and the race comes to an end.
www.usatoday.com

All the polls from any of the mainstream pollsters are within the margin of error. I’m not saying Kamala won’t win, I think she will. but it being this close, I don’t know how anyone can honestly say they’re sure or comfortable about what will happen. Especially when you consider that trump has outperformed his polls both times. The electoral college may not reflect how close it is because of how that works, but it is close.
 
909

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This is why I'm confident. The amount of lying has never been worse. The crowd sizes have never been smaller.

Mickey Massuco said:
I hope you guys are right but even this site:

www.usatoday.com

What are the swing states? See polling in 2024 battlegrounds as race clock winds down

Seven states could flip the results of the 2024 presidential election. See the latest polling as voters head to the polls on Tuesday and the race comes to an end.
www.usatoday.com

All the polls from any of the mainstream pollsters are within the margin of error. I’m not saying Kamala won’t win, I think she will. but it being this close, I don’t know how anyone can honestly say they’re sure or comfortable about what will happen. Especially when you consider that trump has outperformed his polls both times. The electoral college may not reflect how close it is because of how that works, but it is close.
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The point is that pollsters were egregiously wrong in 2020 and then they were egregiously wrong from a completely different standpoint in 2022, and yet for whatever reason people still believe them. They have explicitly stated that they took measures to ensure they did not underestimate Trump support. Some of these pollsters have stated that they juiced their own polls in his favor this time. And yet for some reason left leaning people still recite these polls as if they're gospel or something to be worried about. These polls themselves are completely meaningless. Polling is an industry, and you can take that however you want to. Now I will present everyone with some information.

More women are going to vote for Kamala Harris than have voted for any Democrat before.

More men may go to vote for Trump than ever before. The problem with this is that men are not reliable voters.

Gender Differences in Voter Turnout

Voter turnout refers to the proportion of eligible voters who cast a ballot in an election. Women have registered and voted at higher rates than men in every presidential election since 1980, with the turnout gap between women and men growing slightly larger with each successive presidential...
cawp.rutgers.edu cawp.rutgers.edu

I also see Republicans running multi-time losers on the downballots of these swing states. People who lose elections do not win them later on. These people are also doing the Hillary Clinton shit of not visiting swing states so that they can visit California and New York instead. I'm gonna tell you I know that's a failed strategy because I already saw it fail.
 
909

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I would also point out that every poll that gets discussed in this thread has compromised results. What do I mean by that? When there's been a previous incident (underestimating Trump), these companies are effectively publishing future results based on the integrity of their name. But why do they have any integrity? In the first place they were wrong. They were arrogant in assuming that they had the proper scientific method to publish an accurate poll. Then they said that in order to continue to publish polls, they have to come up with new methods in order to prevent themselves from underestimating Trump support. Does this mean they edit the results? Or are they looking for a certain kind of person to answer their phone call? How is that a scientific process? I guess what I'm saying here is that these polls are fake news. They shouldn't have any meaning anymore, the results of them have been compromised for the sole purpose of hedging against losing more of their integrity. They've demonstrated to everyone that there's been a sequence of events that display a complete lack of integrity in that industry.

I keep saying that it's an industry to point out that there's money exchanging hands over all this stuff. Polling is not something that takes place outside of the political machine, the organizations aren't steadfast institutions, even non-profit organizations have money changing hands. It's not their job to be an instrument of neutrality either. That's not their place.

Now even considering that I'm saying polls are fake news, if one's to believe those polls then they should be pretty sure that Harris is going to win. The pro-Trump results that we're getting are from partisan organizations. Lots of these are polls that could ONLY have a pro-Trump result because that's the purpose for which they're being published. It's a deliberate effort to cast doubt on the actual results of the election. How could my guy be losing when all these polls of dubious origin say that he was gonna win? Republicans are flooding the zone with 'polls' because people who don't pay a lot of attention could be suckered into thinking something happened when it didn't. They've already bought a large social media platform and changed everyone's algorithms so that right wing trash is being pumped into your face whenever you open that website. None of this stuff is some conspiracy either, just go look at it. They're trying to mislead the public.

But what I'm saying is that you shouldn't believe any of these polls, that I think Harris is going to win because of other factors.
 
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