Stock Market Game 2021

[BruiserBrody]

Thought this would be interesting to follow up on. Not quite a full year later but 11 Months just to give Brody an idea how hard it is to profit in a stock market even with following "expert" picks. Again, it showcases that the buy-in price is as important as the actual stock selection itself.

Worth highlighting that The Trade Desk went from 85.51 on 2/1/21 to 73.04 on 1/31/22.

iRobot = 119 down to 64.79(!!!)
Upwork = 49 down to 27.59(!)
Fiverr = 244 down to 81.41... holy hell.
Redfin = 75 down to 28.31
Beyond Meat = 142 down to 58.73
Etsy = 221 up to 133.57 (This was positive back in November 2021)
Zillow = 151 down to 48.94
Pinterest = 72 down to 27.25
Roku = 360 down to 158.90
Salesforce.com = 212 up to 219.23 (Still positive, yay!)
Walt Disney Company = 197 down to 142.02
Total Price for 100 Shares = $184,200 down to $99,074 (-46 to -47% Total)

In 4 Months, my Ben Graham Watchlist stock group is down -2.31%. That's with Kohl's hitting almost +30%, AFLAC at +18.65%, and Wells Fargo at +17.35% in that span. My biggest droppers are Fulgent Genetics at almost -21% and Viacom at -16%.

Thankfully I don't pay for the Fool, just do enough online digging to find stuff,

Out of their 2022 picks, Bank of America is the only one I own. I'm trying to be smarter/disciplined and drop a set amount on the 401K, then work stock, then 200 on SCHD or a market tracking etf. In 3-5 years I will have enough saved up for a house roof, vehicle and water heater. Then I intend to pour more cash into the market monthly.

Any thoughts on Johnson and Johnson's split? A few months ago you would read that it was a perfect stock, with growth and diversity which could fill a large portfolio portion. Now with the market validity and split news, JnJ is rated a "hold".

 

[BruiserBrody]

I know it will go down a bit once Russia finishes up with Win, Lose or Draw: Nuclear Edition, but Lockheed Martin was a big win for me. Bought the dip and its gone up 120-140ish since a just a few weeks ago. Surely kicking myself for not grabbing more.

I'm going to the Tax Man Wednesday and I'm expecting him to give me a look over my 1099, since I bought way too many stocks just to have a flavor of successful companies before I focused in Jan on my SCHD monthly donation plan.

Tempted to use the Tax return to open a Microsoft position though.

Even with the market down down down, I am actually beating the market with my portfolio, having LOST slightly less than the averages across the dow, s and p, etc

/This is not financial advice. I am Brody, not Alexandra York.

 

[BruiserBrody]

 

[Mickey Massuco]

I'm gonna see how it goes before hte March fed announcement. You'd expect a drop in response to a rise in interest rates, but sometimes that drop happens well before the actual rate is announced, and if the rate rise isn't as great as people expect, the market might not tumble at all after that.

The lowest it’s been in six months, but I think it’s still gonna drop more since there will be more rate hikes plus I think we are heading for a real recession.

 

[BruiserBrody]

I like reading the stock news and reddit opinions everyday at lunch. I find amusement in stuff like today where one headline is a analyst predicting a "summer rally" now that things are stabilizing. A few headlines down is another view that is predicting the S and P will drop 30 percent,

I bought 2 shares of JP Morgan and ate some sugary kids cereal. No Pepsi or Pizza.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

I put some more $$ in my IRA, not a boatload but enough I could spare at the moment, given the falling S&P.

 

[BruiserBrody]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/you...st-days-if-you-sell-amid-high-volatility.html

Clinch your butt checks and hold on for the ride!

Had someone invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 on Jan. 1, 2002, they would have a balance of $61,685 if they stayed the course through Dec. 31, 2021.

If instead, they missed the market’s 10 best days during that time, they would have $28,260.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/you...st-days-if-you-sell-amid-high-volatility.html

Clinch your butt checks and hold on for the ride!

#1: Further evidence that it's best to hold for the long term. A lot of people are stupid and do the exact opposite of what you're supposed to by selling as the market falls but also a lot of those people usually aren't smart enough to be investing in S&P 500 stocks or things of that nature in the first place. This all also assumes they didn't sell on the best days... I'd be curious what the ROI would be if they had sold on even just a couple of the best days listed.

#2: That's still a 516.85% return if I'm doing the math right. How many stocks saw that rate of return, especially over a near 20-year span? The best day listed was a return of just 11.6%.

#3: It's worth noting that literally half that list runs from 10/13/2008 - 11/24/2008... 2 others were both in March of 2009. The Great Recession era. Kind of feels like the message is sound but the data kind of skews the perspective and picture here.

My Ben Graham Watchlist started 10/15/2021 is now sitting at -16.10% on the whole. For comparison, the S&P 500 in that span has dropped 13.70%.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Stock market news today: Dow and S&P 500 updates

Here's the latest news on what stocks are doing.

www.cnn.com

Stock market news today: Dow and S&P 500 updates

Here's the latest news on what stocks are doing.

www.cnn.com

Edit: Damn it the headline gimmick didn't work. I was amused by CNN's headlines "Feds raising of interest rates leads to market rising" yesterday followed by CNN posting today "Feds raising of interest rates leads to market falling"

I bought more TROW, QCOM and APPL this week.

Sad I bought some of these STONKS at such higher prices over the past year.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Watched a bunch of these guy's videos the past few days and it actually made me a little queasy. Their target prices to consider buying off of their number cruncher are WAY lower than most stocks today. P and G has to go down nearly 50 percent. Apple is like 95 bucks. Amazon 65 bucks.

Nothing is guaranteed, but it's a counter to a lot of the noise that is out there about how we have massive sale prices going on ATM.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

It's worth noting that the S&P 500 is still up 600 points compared to January 2020 because of how sky high (and quickly) it went up. The Dow is still up almost 3,000 to that date as well.

Compared to the "high" prices, yes these are "sale prices" but that's also about putting things into context. Comparing prices to arguably 1 in a generation type high point prices is a bit misleading.

The folks who bought at the top will hurt but if the prices fall, that's where the $$ is usually made on the eventual rebounds.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

An interesting video comparing a couple Vanguard ETFs

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Another good article: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502739-average-stock-market-return

	Average Rate of Return (S&P 500)	Inflation-Adjusted Return (S&P 500)
5-Year (2017-2021)	18.55%	15.19%
10-Year (2012-2021)	16.58%	14.15%
20-Year (2002-2021)	9.51%	7.04%
30-Year (1992-2021)	10.66%	8.10%

"The dot-com bubble refers to the years 1995 through 1999, where market returns, led by technology stocks, ranged from 21% to 38% in each of those years, averaging double to triple the annual average market return of 10%. The dot-com crash was a decline of 75% from the dot-com bubble peak in 2000 through its bottom in 2002.

During the financial crisis of 2008, the stock market declined by more than 50% from the peak on October 7, 2007, through the bottom on March 9, 2009. Even after three months of downward pressure on prices, stocks still achieved a 27% gain in 2009."

"A minimum return target is to outpace inflation, which averages 3-4% over time, and an optimal target is the stock market's long-term average of 10%."

 

[BruiserBrody]

The recession is over! It lasted about 2 1/2 hours! *

The last 2 days made for some weird amusement for me in this Stock Market game. Thurs JPM didn't deliver what Wall St wanted to hear and their stock took a 4+ dollar drop. It also freaked out Mr Market and stonks went down with them. Today, because Citibank gave numbers Wall St liked, JPM went back up and then some.

*I've been DCAing into JPM so I snipered in a share when it hit the 52 week low for a half a second Thurs AM. When I checked Thurs at noon, JPM was already down so much that people (like me) were now buying it and the stock was moving upward. Hence my goofy "headline" above.

===
I'm watching more of the "Everything Money" YT channel. His number cruncher continues to help give me pause on my choices (which is a good thing!) Jason Fieber's channel seems to do good DD and they explain their math too, but the 2 channels numbers are wildly different.
Example: EM says JNJ is a buy below 155, where as JF's channel says 174.
EM has MSFT as a buy at 175, which will only require another 90 dollars or so to shave off.
--
I'm personally a little torn on JNJ as I wanted to get up to at least a 1000 bucks worth sooner than later, but their stock has held strong, making it harder for me to make the move compared to using my somewhat limited funds to buy TROW, JPM and SCHD.

I recognize that's why one is to have a strategy and not just chase deals and headlines. I do have like 600 into JNJ. Also own a little MCK and ABBV (a big winner for me and one I wish I had hit harder when it dipped a few months ago) so I have healthcare sector stocks.

I'm beating the market by 7% in 2022, which is to say I've only lost 13% of my portfolio (WHAT A WIN!) I'm proud to say I'm bag holding MSFT and APPL, which is hard to do.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Work paid out years of back sick pay and PTO to all of us, so I have over 300 hours of bonus salary to mess with.
I bought 4 shares of JNJ so far this week (and it keeps falling so I can kick myself a little) and I'm waiting for SCHD to drop a buck or 2 so I'm back in the red and I can do a heavy load into it. I have a few weeks before their quarterly dividend date so I'm trying to avoid the urge to splurge.
Just bought my first share of Google. Everything Money's channel loves it (at a lower price) but sub 100 is good enough for me.
I now have 20 shares of JNJ and 5K in SCHD.
1000 each in Microsoft, Apple, JPM, TROW, QCOM.
I have lots of other stocks from when I was overly dabbling in one share of this and that and most of those are in red, but only a few stocks out of those I assume are not coming back to green days for me (ARKK, DOCN (maybe), and Bill Gates battery company, which I bought at ISO for 20 and now it is like 3 bucks.) I also bought a few shares of PLTR at 40. The company gets lots of love, but the stock is down to like 8 bucks.
Yearly dividend reinvestment is up to 618 bucks, which I feel is pretty good since I've only been at this for less than 2 years.

I still give 6 percent to 401K (which is matched) and 250 a month to WMT (which at year end earns me a total company bonus of another 270 dollars).

 

[BruiserBrody]

I’ve Been Buying The Safest Investment on the Planet | Daily Trade Alert

It’s not always the best deal in town, but it is right now. So stock up on this ultra-safe investment with your short-term money. Read more →

dailytradealert.com

Anybody using the Treasury rates to boost their savings? My mother and bro are both sitting on a bunch of cash and I can't convince them to move it to other options.
Looks like you need 5 grand minimum to get the T Bills, which is certainly another little trick to keep the poors in their place. I will look further into this Tues when the bank/Wall St reopen.
--
Anybody buying any interesting stocks? Indexes and chill?

 

[tekcop]

I only buy index fund stuff now. No time or interest in trying to follow the market.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Stockchase analyst at his best:

	Firstservice Corp FSV-Q TOP PICK		$142.00 -1.92 (1.35%)
Does not know what the business does - despite stock recommendation. Investment based on technical analysis. Very strong resistant point. Likes the look of chart. If stock breaks neck line - will sell.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Here's how my Vanguard IRA has done... This is with the highs and lows factored in again highlighting that prices will come down/rebound accordingly over a long enough stretch of time.

10 Year Return = 8.7% (2013-2023)
5 Year Return = 8.0% (2018-2023)
3 Year Return = 9.9% (2020-2023)
1 Year Return = -4.2% (2022-2023)

Historical Average Stock Market Returns for S&P 500 (5-year to 150-year averages) - Trade That Swing

These are the average yearly returns of the US stock market over the last 5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 150-years. Data is based on the S&P 500.

tradethatswing.com

"Adjusted for inflation, the 50-year average return (including dividends) is 6.068%."

 

[BruiserBrody]

I'm trailing the S and P by 9% this year in my etrade personal picks. SCHD has been weak all year, which is good if you want to keep buying it up and bad if you are keeping score. It does make me want to toss more money into an S and P etf though.
--
I was hosed out of 40 bucks yesterday as I own 1 share of SKLZ and they did a reverse stock split. I was charged 38 bucks or whatever as a reorganization fee. 2nd time this year I was caught with my pants down like this.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Oh yeah.... Mad at myself for not dumping a ton into The Trade Desk when it hit 33 bucks a few months ago. More than doubled already. I've sold hundreds of dollars in gains on them in the past so I should know to trust them to boom up.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Atlanta Fed projects nearly 6% GDP growth in third quarter

2023 began with recession calls across Wall Street, but a consistent flow of stronger than expected data now has a closely watched indicator projecting the best quarter for economic growth since 2021.

finance.yahoo.com

*Ted Dibiase laugh*

 

[BruiserBrody]

 

[BruiserBrody]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1717881005388808332

 

[BruiserBrody]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1755266389151973475

 

[BruiserBrody]

I'm up over 80 percent on Google. Gawd I could have made a killing had a pulled a much larger trigger.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Historical Average Stock Market Returns for S&P 500 (5-year to 150-year averages) - Trade That Swing

These are the average yearly returns of the US stock market over the last 5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 150-years. Data is based on the S&P 500.

tradethatswing.com

"These statistics can make it seem like the stock market marches higher almost every year. But that’s not how stocks always act. Stocks actually tend to move sideways quite a bit of the time. Most of the progress in the stock market over the last 150 years has come in three big moves: mid-40s to mid-60s, 80s-2000, and 2010 to now."

"Reinvesting the dividends has a big impact on performance, as shown in the data below. To get the highest return when stock index investing, reinvest the dividends. Preferably do this through a DRIP or some other program where the dividends are automatically reinvested for you at no charge. This will save the commission costs and the time of having to do it yourself."

 

[BruiserBrody]

"So, if you had invested in Nvidia ten years ago, you're likely feeling pretty good about your investment today. According to our calculations, a $1000 investment made in March 2014 would be worth $172,169.75, or a 17,116.97% gain, as of March 1, 2024"

One mortgage payment redirected and I'd be farting through silk!!! Augh!!!

--
Anyway I bought a share today. Let's hope the future is at least 25 percent as bright.

 

[BruiserBrody]

https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-regulators-open-antitrust-inquiries-microsoft-openai-nvidia-nyt-reports-2024-06-06/

And my 3 day party is over!

 

[BruiserBrody]

I made some major changes today.

Walmart stock has lagged the S and P by 1-2 percent so I cut my buying down to 2 shares a month instead of 4. Walmart gives us a bonus 15 percent of all WMT up to 1800 dollars invested per year, so 70 dollars a pay check will cover that for the year. That 2 percent adds up when you have a large investment made so the switch seemed smart.
I own something like 15K in WMT stock from over the past 3 years (and it has gone up 10 dollars a share since the split a few months ago) and I am not necessarily comfortable with such a giant amount in one company. (Who knows what can happen, they've been innovative but what happens if they turn into Kmart, Shopko and Sears?) so slowing down the buying feels right.

The second big move was selling my 14K worth of SCHD (up 6 percent this year, basically a high yield savings account that boomers should own, not someone with 20 years to go) I haven't added any new shares in 14 months.
Also sold out of my Lockheed Martin, which I bought just before the Ukraine War. It shot up over 100 bucks once Putin invaded, but has been sputtering all of 2024. So I ditched it.

The final bold move then was to take all the cash I sold off and move it to QQQ. They have been beastin' well ahead of even the S and P, so hopefully tech will continue to carry the market for a while.

So my etrade account is now north of 55K of personal stocks, and my 401K has something like 260 dollars a month added to it. I don't do the recommended Roth IRA or the medical savings plan. Stuff I will probably regret someday.

Sorry to all who invest, cause I probably just kicked off a recession.