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Russia Invades Ukraine

So this has rapidly heated back up again after Russia seized several Ukrainian ships. Parts of Ukraine are now under martial law and Russia is apparently moving more troops into the area.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/29/russia-blocked-ukrainian-azov-sea-ports-minister

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2018/11/ukraine-full-scale-war-with-russia-possible-as-both-nations-mobilize-troops-to-their-borders/
 
This is going to need a bump because Russia is amassing enough troops on Ukraine's borders to invade the entirety of Ukraine.

www.theguardian.com

Russian ships, tanks and troops on the move to Ukraine as peace talks stall

With negotiations deadlocked, Moscow is continuing to build up its military forces for a possible invasion
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

I do find it interesting how poorly informed the American public is on this subject. It's difficult for us to get it because we don't live in a country where our goals as a country are hampered by location and how much the rest of the world hates us. There is a natural gas field off Ukraine's Black Sea coast that would allow Ukraine to become energy independent, and therefore allow Europe to become energy independent from Russia. The fact is that the earthquake in Japan was one of the worst things that could ever happen in terms of ceasing our reliance on fossil fuels. Countries panicked and closed down nuclear plants, European countries are chiefly among them, and now Russia can tighten the noose. Their quasi-invasion in Eastern Ukraine didn't go very well and there was some talk that Ukraine would move their military in and crush the rebels this summer. Well obviously Russia isn't going to leave that to chance.

I know it's hard for some people to believe that they're going to invade, we are so jaded and war weary that we just don't believe the rest of the world doesn't feel the same way as we do. There are also obvious reasons why they would invade now and not later. We are in a state of upheaval and turmoil. Germany just replaced their government, our government continues to be weak, the UK government is weak. I think our constant exposure to anti-Russian propaganda has led to an inability to understand the logical reasons why they would do something and instead use past history as a cudgel with which to assume they're operating upon.

I don't think this invasion is a good idea and I don't think it will go well for Russia, but the reasons why they would do it are obvious beyond simply a hope for expansion or 'a return to Soviet ways.' They're going to do it because we are weak, we are tired of war for really good reasons, and most importantly we will let them do it so why not do it. The key thing here is that there are going to be Russian tanks invading a European capital and I don't know how the average European is going to react to that.
 
People also think for some reason they’re just gonna turn around and go home. That’s not going to happen. There are multiple practical reasons to invade Ukraine and they’re going to do it. They don’t care all that much about NATO expanding except in Ukraine’s case. Ukraine’s gas field I mentioned is also undeveloped and they don’t want Exxon going in there and developing it for Europe. They won’t let that happen. It would be fine for Russia if it was never developed at all.
 
they've commited way too many resources to this tob ack down without a huge loss of face. In the long run I don't think the invasion will work out for them as we've talked about in chat either. Putin is acting more because he is running out of options than because of strength.
 
Basically every country is telling their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately. It's happening. Putin has to invade anyway at this point because it can't look like NATO backed him down.
 
Seems like we're stuck in a holding pattern with Russia claiming they've sent 100k troops back home from the Ukranian border and NATO declaring that to be false.
 
They won't do it. The cyberattack on the banks yesterday was just to show Ukraine they're really at Russia's mercy, this is all a big flex.
 
Separatists in East Ukraine have been claiming all night and day that Ukraine just started killing civilians. They haven't and Ukraine claims those guys shelled a kindergarten, but this manufactured bullshit is supposed to give Russia a reason to invade.

So yeah, it's happening.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1494748326490775557

So there's been tons of attacks in the Donbass that may or may not be real. So again, they are invading very soon. Russia now has 190,000 troops near Ukraine's border to say nothing of everything else they brought in. They didn't withdraw anything, they've added 90,000 of those since Jan 30th.


I laughed about the false flag thing and so did everyone else but clearly US intel was telling the truth on that one. I thought Russia would just invade because nobody would believe their claims anyway.
 
Cyberattacks, subterfuge within other means, whatever. Russia ain't conducting a ground invasion of Ukraine. They're doing everything BUT that because an invasion quickly becomes a war of occupation and they aren't willing to have a bunch of bodybags coming home. Too many Russians remember Afghanistan still, and the Ukraine is far more developed with multiple defensive plans to gut out a Russian invasion. They aren't going to invade. They'll do everything else in 21st Century means to fuck up Ukraine but we aren't about to see any kind of ground-based incursion. The West isn't buying any provocations and are being far more transparent now (to the world's benefit) with intelligence than they were during previous Russian international transgressions.

If they were going to do it they would have fuckin' done it by now, not scheduling meetings with foreign envoys a week or two from now. It's Russia as the pimp trying to exert power over Ukraine like its their bitch. The longer they wait the longer the international community will coalesce against them. It's downright stupid for them to invade Ukraine at this point. The UN Secretary General doesn't see an invasion happening either.

While Russian aggression and attempts at intimidation are very real, we have to recognize this is an act of intimidation and part of a long-term strategy rather than actual action. Separatists in the Donbas region are only trying to gin up their populations with their evacuation orders. The whole thing feels like a hurricane that we on the southeast US coast worry about, buy boards for windows and bottled water and all that, only to see the storm turn back towards the ocean.
 
Russia used the delay to send 90,000 more troops down there, transport blood and field hospitals, ship countless artillery, fighter jets, and nearly the entirety of their military helicopter fleet. They flew almost their whole fleet down to the border. Why would they do that?

Russia/Putin is nowhere near as smart as people give them credit for. Like, what exactly has Putin done to make anyone think that he's learned from anything in the past? They were giving speeches in the Duma all day about how they need to invade Ukraine to prevent genocide. They have a fundamental issue with Ukraine wanting to join NATO. They're going to do it.
 
They haven't invaded before now because the ground was too soft.

Russia lost 15,000 soldiers in Afghanistan.

Russia lost approx 6,000 in the First Cheynian war by their count and 14,000 by others. Figures for the second war range from 8 to 40k due to Russian concelment.

There have also been multiple other conflicts in the last 20 years were Russia has lost large number of soldiers in ground wars. They are not haunted by Afghanistan.
 
909 said:
Russia used the delay to send 90,000 more troops down there, transport blood and field hospitals, ship countless artillery, fighter jets, and nearly the entirety of their military helicopter fleet. They flew almost their whole fleet down to the border. Why would they do that?
Click to expand...
Their alternative to the SWIFT banking system is further along than thought, that's the only reason I can think of as a DGAF motive. It's showing Russia *can* if they wanted to. Their likely methods will be cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to destabilize Ukraine from within. An invasion simply makes no sense regardless of what they've mobilized. The longer they wait, the less likely it is.
 
It already leaked out that any sanctions will not include removing them from SWIFT.
 
Putin says he isn’t interested in any peace deal, troops will not be leaving their stations to go home, and that Ukraine should be further partitioned. Then at the end he said Ukraine shouldn’t exist.

……
 
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Just dawned on me that this is an invasion announcement speech and now I can't believe I'm actually watching this.
 
U.S. Intel also claims to have knowledge of a "kill list" that Russia was going to use to allegedly purge selected people upon their invasion of Ukraine. That's some Hitler-Stalin level shit.

...would likely target those who oppose Russian actions, including Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons
Click to expand...

"This is an absolute hoax, this is a lie," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told CNN. Pressed on if he is aware of the existence of such a list, Peskov said, "I know that this is absolute fiction, there is no such list, it is fake news."
Click to expand...
 
So the short version is that Ukraine has to pull troops out of these supposedly independent republics in order to prevent war. There are areas in them that are currently controlled by Ukraine, the front line is about halfway through the westernmost territory. It is impossible to prevent war unless Ukraine simply cedes part of their own country again, but the way this guy was talking he’d rather kill all of them.
 
economictimes.indiatimes.com

Russian market cracks 17% as Ukraine tensions intensify; Europe jittery

Russia warned there were no firm plans for a summit between US President Joe Biden and Putin. In another development, reports emerged that Russian forces killed a group of five saboteurs who breached the country's southwest border from Ukraine on Monday.
economictimes.indiatimes.com economictimes.indiatimes.com

already unconfirmed reports of murder, jesus christ
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1495834834559807490

The narrative that this guy is a genius got blown out of the water today. He’s a doddering old moron who wishes it was 40 years ago. And there’s thousands of Russian politicians who think exactly the same as him, so this problem is never going away even when he dies. And that’s it that’s all there is to it.

Let’s not forget they started this war 8 years ago and couldn’t finish it because he’s a moron and that’s why they’re gonna send more people in now.
 
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