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Feels like the administration has been laying a lot of groundwork to dispute whatever results are announced on election night and then disqualify as many mail-in votes as possible. In a free and fair election, I think Biden wins, but I have very little confidence in that actually happening.
 
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To be clear, the only way around the GOP's Soviet machinations is for it to be a blowout and that means Biden/Harris needs every possible vote.
 
HarleyQuinn

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I'd love to see Florida or Texas swing but I just can't trust either state right now and think both would still be behind Trump in the end. Arizona, to me, is mostly dependent on how they view the COVID impact & how much that reflects back on Trump. Arizona Has See-Sawed Back and Forth so it could be a toss-up in either direction.

I think Michigan (especially its auto industry + the BLM stuff) is done with Trump. Iowa's a complete toss-up and the farming community will have a big impact there same with Nebraska IMO. Ohio is a toss-up and we'll see with Kasich's impact but again, the economic impact will be a factor there and could go either way.
 
Cackling Co Pilot Kamala

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Kasich wasn't popular enough to blowout Trump in Republican primaries in 2016. I doubt him endorsing Biden means much in grand scheme of things. I think Ohio is a lost cause for now for Democrats. Maybe in 2024-28.
 
Cackling Co Pilot Kamala

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Hypothetical question that someone probably @HarleyQuinn ...how possible of a discrepancy is there for winning the electoral college but winning the popular vote? I still don't think it's talked about enough that Hillary won by 3 million votes. It doesn't seem that narrow of a margin. Would it be possible for someone to win the popular vote by 5 million and still lose the electoral college? 10 million? If Trump loses popular vote by significant amounts but wins electoral college AGAIN, do you think there's possibility of widespread civil unrest?
 
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The answer is yes to all of your questions. The answer to the last is that we are already experiencing widespread civic unrest. A situation like that will only make it worse for everyone except GOP elites who will continue to have nothing to actually fear.

Winning the popular vote but losing electoral has happened a handful of times in our history. Twice in the 1800s (including 1876 where the person who became the president lost both popular and electoral), in 2000, and 2016. It is certainly possible to happen again this year. And if certain states (Wisconsin, etc) fuck up again, Trump could lose by 5-10mil this time and remain president.
 
HarleyQuinn

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King Kamala said:
Hypothetical question that someone probably @HarleyQuinn ...how possible of a discrepancy is there for winning the electoral college but winning the popular vote? I still don't think it's talked about enough that Hillary won by 3 million votes. It doesn't seem that narrow of a margin. Would it be possible for someone to win the popular vote by 5 million and still lose the electoral college? 10 million? If Trump loses popular vote by significant amounts but wins electoral college AGAIN, do you think there's possibility of widespread civil unrest?
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There's potential. If Trump could take Wisconsin, Arizona, Ohio, and Pennsylvania that would give him 280. Even without Wisconsin, Trump would get to 270.

Let's say Trump takes Iowa, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. Biden takes Arizona and Michigan. It really would come down to Ohio and Pennsylvania for Trump's sake. If Trump won both (269-269 tie then) & somehow got like a Rhode Island, he'd get the win. If Biden can take either Ohio or PA, that'd give him 287 or 289.

Biden still gets 280 if he can take Ohio/PA with Trump winning Arizona & Michigan. Biden still has 273 if he gets Arizona & loses Ohio. Biden can still get 276 with just Ohio & Michigan or 278 with PA & Michigan. Trump's worst nightmare is that Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania all go blue giving Biden 296 and a clear blowout even if Trump gets Arizona.

Arizona can be a real wild card here. If Trump loses Arizona, he basically has to win Ohio and Pennsylvania just to have a chance & hope he can steal another state that was projected to go blue such as a Colorado or North Carolina. If he loses either Ohio or Pennsylvania, he needs to win the other state and take both Arizona & Michigan just to get 276 or 278.

Again, this is all assuming that Iowa/Wisconsin goes red and Colorado/Virginia/NC go blue.
 
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Cackling Co Pilot Kamala

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Why does Rhode Island keep coming up as a random swing state? Trump has about as much of a chance to win (or even get within 10% of winning) there as I have of learning how to do a cartwheel.

If Trump is going to take any state in New England (and I mean he will PROBABLY get 1 electoral vote from Maine CD2) then it's gonna be NH.
 
AA484

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Yeah, there is no way in hell Trump wins RI. I think he would win every other NE state (except Massachusetts) before RI.
 
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snuffbox said:
The answer is yes to all of your questions. The answer to the last is that we are already experiencing widespread civic unrest. A situation like that will only make it worse for everyone except GOP elites who will continue to have nothing to actually fear.

Winning the popular vote but losing electoral has happened a handful of times in our history. Twice in the 1800s (including 1876 where the person who became the president lost both popular and electoral), in 2000, and 2016. It is certainly possible to happen again this year. And if certain states (Wisconsin, etc) fuck up again, Trump could lose by 5-10mil this time and remain president.
Click to expand...

Put another way: In the past 30 years (7 elections), Republicans have won the popular vote once. (2004)
 
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Also, just to tell everyone, that Trafalgar group poll is a campaign internal where they automatically add points to Trump's score because they think that people are afraid to tell each other that they like Trump.
 
HarleyQuinn

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King Kamala said:
Why does Rhode Island keep coming up as a random swing state? Trump has about as much of a chance to win (or even get within 10% of winning) there as I have of learning how to do a cartwheel.

If Trump is going to take any state in New England (and I mean he will PROBABLY get 1 electoral vote from Maine CD2) then it's gonna be NH.
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I just like to use Rhode Island as an example not necessarily that it would be accurate but you're right, it'd be NH realistically.

Worth noting for the last election
- Wisconsin voted Trump by 0.7%, Michigan was 0.3%, Pennsylvania was 0.7%, and Florida was 1.2%. Iowa was pretty handily Trump by almost 10% and Ohio was pretty handily Trump by 8%. North Carolina was 3.6%.

Biden would need to flip Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to hit 278 assuming every state was the exact same from 2016. If Biden miraculously took Florida, he'd only need to flip 1 of Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, or NC to win.

My gut says he'll take Michigan and Pennsylvania primarily due to the Auto Industry & Steel workers. Trump's pissed off the farmers but I just don't know if they'd be willing to vote Democrat despite that.

Florida & Wisconsin & Michigan & Ohio & PA did go Democrat in 2012 so it's not out of the realm of possibility. However, Florida gave Obama not even 1%, Wisconsin was about 7%, Michigan was almost 9% (I think we see something similar for 2020), Ohio only went Obama by about 3%, and PA went about 5% to Obama. Not big margins outside of Wisconsin and Michigan.

Ohio isn't necessarily a lock for Biden to win but if he can, he'll likely sail to victory.
 
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Biden definitely won't win Ohio. I don't care what the polls say. That place is turning into West Virginia. He will win Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, and PA. In Arizona the Senate race is going to carry him. There are some other states that are tossups, I don't really know how they'll go.
 
AA484

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I don't think Florida is as lost a cause as people here are saying, especially when they also mention Texas as possibly flipping in the same sentence.
 
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AboveAverage484 said:
I don't think Florida is as lost a cause as people here are saying, especially when they also mention Texas as possibly flipping in the same sentence.
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Biden has lost literally one Florida poll. So yeah, it's definitely not a lost cause. Trump only won Florida by 100,000 votes against a candidate who was detested by most of the country. That's the really key factor here. People don't hate Biden like that and it's hard to convince people to.
 
Cackling Co Pilot Kamala

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Yeah. Agree with the boths of ya. When was the last time Texas elected a Democrat? Ann Richards? I certainly think it's possible (if not probable) that Texas will be a blue state in the next 5-10 years but I think it's fairly safe Red for this election.
 
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King Kamala said:
Yeah. Agree with the boths of ya. When was the last time Texas elected a Democrat? Ann Richards? I certainly think it's possible (if not probable) that Texas will be a blue state in the next 5-10 years but I think it's fairly safe Red for this election.
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Yeah I'm in the same boat with that one.

Where the GOP gets fucked is because Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia used to be part of their election strategy. Now there is no way those states will go back red. They're defending a lot of states that they have a tenuous grip on, where lots of statewide officials are Democrats. It's gonna be hard to pull a Florida 2000 in these states when the election officials aren't Republicans like they were in Florida. There are enough states run by Democrats to ensure the electoral college is somewhat fairly decided, and Biden really does only have to win those states in order to win.
 
AA484

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I think Michigan is solid blue and while I am more apprehensive about Pennsylvania than I was, I still think they go blue. If Biden wins those two and just one of the other 50/50 (AZ, FL, NC, WI) states he takes it. At any rate, I do think it is a little closer than it was a month or two ago.
 
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[quote author=BRODY link=topic=7317.msg606823#msg6
snuffbox said:
I know the voters of this state too well to have any confidence. Hope, yes. But folks here vote against their own interests like they're eating cheese.
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Much like 2016....if yard signs are any indicator....uh oh....

I was in Door County Saturday, doing tourist stuff and the Trump signs were everywhere.

Meanwhile, Gov. Evers has another recall petition circulating over his mask mandate, Kenosha mayhem, etc.
 
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