2020 Election

[Brocklock]

Trump's celebrity status shielded him from criticism for his crazy statements in 2015-16. Like when Michelle Bachmann, Rick Santorum or Ben Carson said wacky stuff, media wasn't afraid to say this is "Some wacky bullshit". But Trump was VERY AVAILABLE for interviews the past three decades, his wacky bullshit was somehow worthy of serious discussion? They legitimized a total clown. I'd almost rather have Rick Santorum!

MICHELLE BACHMANN PLEASE COME BACHHHHHH

 

[snuffbox]

The FAILING New York Times didn't fail at getting ahold of god emperor trump's taxes. Turns out there was a reason he's been trying so hard to keep them hidden.

 

[909]

The debate on Tuesday is going to be hilarious. Nowhere to run.

 

[snuffbox]

Maybe the president will cancel the debate so as not to cause a panic

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1310534726579560448

I told myself not to get too excited over polls after last time and yet-

 

[BruiserBrody]

The tax thing isn't moving a republican vote. They adore the guv'mint getting hosed over.

Expect all leeway in a state like Texas to go Trump. So assume that poll is 52-48. Dems are good at almost winning.

 

[snuffbox]

The IRS isn't getting hosed. The government isn't getting hosed. They will still get and spend the same amount; but more will continue to be taken from people who work. And if you don't think that will sway a single voter from him, I will sell you a real nice bridge.

 

[cobainwasmurdered]

This won't move hardcore trump supporters but the idea it won't move people who are the edge is wrong imo. Yes people hate the IRS but they also hate feeling like they're the ones having to do something when the rich are getting away with it. They also hate feeling like they've been sold a false bag of goods which is what Trump has been doing.

 

[snuffbox]

Not every 2016 Trump voter literally worships him. Yes, many, probably the vast majority, of them do. But some can be moved. Some already did switch sides in the 2018 midterms.

 

[BruiserBrody]

But once you're in the booth, can you support the baby killing guy who will tax you more and give that money to a jobless immigrant? Plus his running mate is going to get cranky every 29 days. And the police might get defunded. Hmmmmm..... Kamala? She was pretty aggressive in that debate with that poor Jesus loving old man. And they love the flag. I saw Trump dry hump it.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

But once you're in the booth, can you support the baby killing guy who will tax you more and give that money to a jobless immigrant? Plus his running mate is going to get cranky every 29 days. And the police might get defunded. Hmmmmm..... Kamala? She was pretty aggressive in that debate with that poor Jesus loving old man. And they love the flag. I saw Trump dry hump it.

If they're on the edge/more moderate than Trump's base? Fuck. YES.

These are not Trump stans or radical Trump lovers, Brody. The people we are talking about are the moderates who voted for Trump maybe because they hated Hillary more so it was a 60-40 favor Trump aspect. Then they saw what Trump's done in office and are like, "Not gonna vote for him again."

It's not much but if it's even 3-4% of a vote, that's enough to swing a state to Biden's favor. If you take I dunno 750,000 Voters and say, "Okay. 22,500 of you are switching from Trump to Biden," that's a decent hit to Trump.

 

[909]

The tax thing isn't moving a republican vote. They adore the guv'mint getting hosed over.

My aunt and her husband live in AZ, they voted for Trump, and now they are not. Going through staff like Trump has was the first problem they had, and now this. So this is just absolutely not true and they live in a swing state to boot.

You do understand that if they don't vote at all, that's a victory too? Them and another person I know makes three hardcore conservatives who probably just won't vote.

 

[909]

Also, if Dems are good at almost winning, why did they just win the House? It's like people pretend that didn't happen in order for events to fit their own predetermined narrative. 10 million more people voted for Democrats two years ago, and they flipped 41 seats in a mid-term.

If anything, these polls are heavily oversampled in order to account for the 2016 election, where a lot of people didn't vote for Hillary Clinton because they hated her guts rather than anything policy related. A lot of these samples claim to have a Trump voter favorable bend. If Biden wins the popular vote by 10 million votes? Trump would be very lucky to top 180 EV. There are some states out there like South Carolina, Alaska, and Montana that are polling way closer than you'd think. It's kinda wild. There was also an Alaska senate poll a month ago that was tied. As few people as there are in that state? That's crazy.

 

[snuffbox]

And a year before that 2018 midterm tsunami, a Democrat won a statewide election in fucking Alabama!

 

[909]

Also, I need to stop making separate posts, but Ted Cruz beat Beto by 200,000 votes. 200,000 votes in Texas is not very much. There are very big cities in Texas full of people absolutely suffering from a lack of covid relief.

People often like to distill election analysis to hero worship. What happens when the guy you voted for won't get anything passed to make sure you can fucking eat? There are also Republican senators out there defending their seats while not passing covid relief. Most of the election map is open and this thing has massive blowout potential.

I was watching TV the other day and I saw a video of this foodbank in Texas. The line was 2.5 miles long. This is supposed to be fucking America. Instead you have people lining up for food the way they talk about how that used to happen in Romania during the 80s. Those people are gonna make their voice heard.

 

[cobainwasmurdered]

Trump’s 2016 Campaign Listed Millions of Black Voters It Wanted to Stop From Voting, Leak Reveals

A huge data leak shows that three million Black Americans were unknowingly added to a list of people that Team Trump wanted to keep away from polling places.

www.thedailybeast.com

IVE DONE MORE FOR THE BLACKS THAN ANY PRESIDENT EXCEPT LINCOLN, MAYBE HIM TOO SOME SAY

 

[909]

A+ pollster just released one with Biden winning Pennsylvania by 9%. Literally impossible for Trump to win the election without carrying that state. Of all the states Trump was able to swing in 2016 I felt like that was the most likely one to vote for him again.

 

[snuffbox]

Yeah, he had a bigger win there than in Michigan and Wisconsin. If all 3 decide to not be Nazi anymore, that's ballgame.

If 2 or 3 of North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, or Florida switch as well it's a decisive win and not a long, slog night (or days/weeks).

If more than than 2 or 3 of the above and something like Texas or Ohio turns, it'll be a 1964/84 type mandate.

 

[BruiserBrody]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1310599118671155202

---

I was definitely referencing Stacy Abrams, Beto, (and truly Hillary) etc when I made my snarky "Dems are good at almost winning" comment. Obv. wins happen.

 

[snuffbox]

Beto getting that close against a hardcore trump republican in Texas was remarkable.

Abrams would've almost certainly won if the election wasn't actually (as opposed to trump's whiny bitch bullshit) rigged.

Clinton won by 3 million votes.

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1310904556574986240

If anyone knows about being on a sharp mental decline since the ‘00s, it’s Rudy!

 

[BruiserBrody]

Beto getting that close against a hardcore trump republican in Texas was remarkable.

Abrams would've almost certainly won if the election wasn't actually (as opposed to trump's whiny bitch bullshit) rigged.

Clinton won by 3 million votes.

Hillary played under the same rules as Trump did. Like Don said, if the game was win CA and NY, he'd have focused on the 2 mass populations and win.
Trump drew less voters than Romney IIRC, Clinton failed to stoke the base. Thus lost.

Senator Remarkable Close (TX)

Dems better learn hardball fast, because Abrams is a good test case for how the Republicans keep winning w/ less support.

 

[Brooklyn Zoo]

Hillary played under the same rules as Trump did. Like Don said, if the game was win CA and NY, he'd have focused on the 2 mass populations and win.
Trump drew less voters than Romney IIRC, Clinton failed to stoke the base. Thus lost.

Senator Remarkable Close (TX)

Dems better learn hardball fast, because Abrams is a good test case for how the Republicans keep winning w/ less support.

LOL

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

If Donald Trump thought, he could've won NY and CA, he would've ran as a Democrat.

 

[BruiserBrody]

If Donald Trump thought, he could've won NY and CA, he would've ran as a Democrat.

Who knows what bullshit he'd have spouted if he was trying to win moderates/liberals. It's not like he actually has policies, scruples, whatever. He won the game by playing the hand he needed to. I didn't suggest he would have won NY/CA with WALL and immigrants fear mongering.

In a non- Obama universe, he might have stayed more moderate and focused on his anti-Bush talking points and become the hero of everyman moderate Dems and Libtards.

"Pot, sure whatever? Sex, I love it, Abortions, heh I paid for a few!"

Fuck, with his Clinton friendship in the past, Hill-dog may have latched on to a big roleplaying part of his administration, guiding Trump as he focused on cutting promos and not boring policy wonk stuff.

Right now he might be polling at the same 42 percent as Mitch produces every broad Trump tagged to testify on the Senate floor about Trump's debauchery. Mike Pence, seeking his elusive presidential bid is playing the God card to the hilt against Trump each night on Hannity.

Schools are open, full of shooters, and the Hilldawg War machine has the Pentagon producing tons of weapons of war. The economy is booming. Obama is a state senator in Illinois who is well regarded for being one of MSNBC's favorite talking heads.

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

I honestly don't think there is a moderate Republican/centrist fanbase to whip into a frenzy like the MAGA CHUDs.

Lest we forget, I think Trump has been unpopular/a buffoon figure in NYC for most of the past 40 years. I have hard time imagining any scenario where he wins office in NY (or CA). Remember the New York Republican Party begged him to run for Governor against Cuomo in 2014 and he shot them down cause he knew it'd be easier to try for Republican POTUS nod in two years.

 

[BruiserBrody]

I honestly don't think there is a moderate Republican/centrist fanbase to whip into a frenzy like the MAGA CHUDs.

Lest we forget, I think Trump has been unpopular/a buffoon figure in NYC for most of the past 40 years. I have hard time imagining any scenario where he wins office in NY (or CA). Remember the New York Republican Party begged him to run for Governor against Cuomo in 2014 and he shot them down cause he knew it'd be easier to try for Republican POTUS nod in two years.

Trump got 2.8 million votes in NY in 2016. If he's got the (D) next to his name against Cruz, he could have pulled down Hillary's 4.5 million voters.

Trump did better than Romney by a hair, Obama scored about the same as Hillary in 2012's race. That's good consistency considering Clinton lost Obama voters elsewhere.

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

Well it's a lot harder for Democrats to be won over by blowhard centrist billionaires (referring to pre 2011 Trump not recent racist), see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Bloomberg_2020_presidential_campaign for ref

In an alternate reality where Obama doesn't exist then Hilary probably wins the nomination and becomes POTUS. I don't see any scenario where Republicans would've won in '08. Does Hillary earn same vitriol from the Tea Party/MAGA types that Obama did that allowed Trump to rise as conservative populist? I would say probably.

(If we don't have a "What If?" alternate history thread than we should)

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Dems better learn hardball fast, because Abrams is a good test case for how the Republicans keep winning w/ less support.

Bald-faced voter suppression?

 

[snuffbox]

Hillary Clinton was demonized like no other person walking this earth since 1992. The tea trumpers would've been just as deplorable with Hillary or Obama.