2020 Election

[geniusMoment]

I really think the polls aren't showing how lopsided the race is. Texas is going to be close to 100% of their total vote from 2016 BEFORE election day itself. Think about that for a second. Texas will probably end up voting at 125% of the their 2016 total. And Trump has done nothing to expand his base. His base is his base is his base. I think 90% of that extra 25% are Biden voters (even if they are registered Republicans). I just don't buy that Trump has expanded his base.

 

[909]

I really think the polls aren't showing how lopsided the race is. Texas is going to be close to 100% of their total vote from 2016 BEFORE election day itself. Think about that for a second. Texas will probably end up voting at 125% of the their 2016 total. And Trump has done nothing to expand his base. His base is his base is his base. I think 90% of that extra 25% are Biden voters (even if they are registered Republicans). I just don't buy that Trump has expanded his base.

All the decent polling companies also changed all their polling models to reflect the electorate from 2016. They are making some assumptions about a ton of uneducated voters showing up to vote and have samples where a lot of educated people stay at home like in 2016. That may not be true anymore. All of the polls from decent polling companies are assuming a massive Trump turnout and they still wind up with the numbers that they have.

I know four Trump voters who all would qualify as uneducated, and they straight up ain't voting at all because of the incompetency and gongshow of the last four years. Two of them live in hugely red CA, districts their congressmen probably won't lose. The other two live in Phoenix. Their congresswoman is a Republican and any polls of the district are widely varying. If more people do what they do? Yeah it would definitely fuck up a lot of these polling assumptions.

Now I don't know a single person who voted for Hillary Clinton who is going to vote for Trump. Not one.

 

[geniusMoment]

An example of what I mean in my own personal life is my aunt and uncle on my mom's side. They have always been Repulicans (he was a VP for Hallmark and made millions). Both held their nose and voted for Trump last time because they believe in conservative economics. Both are voting for Biden now.

My boss at work is a Republican who voted for Trump. He's now voting for Biden.

These are just limited personal examples. But, I would argue they represent a larger trend. They are all still registered as Republicans. But, all voted for Biden. And I see no evidence of a trend the other way (democrats for Trump). I think this is skewing things.

 

[909]

I also should note that while those four people I mentioned were Trumpers, I actually like them. Most people hate their Trump loving family but they aren't the way I think you'd assume most of those people would be. I'm sure they'll vote for Republicans in four years but I'm not sure one of them will live for four more years. They have common sense though and COVID has completely fucked up three of their lives. My grandma hasn't even been outside since I went to see her at the end of February. Not all of these 2016 voters are brainwashed like the rallygoing cult.

 

[snuffbox]

I plan to post my final predictions this weekend, maybe Friday night, Sunday night at the latest. I haven't changed my mind on thinking Biden will win. I'll post my own thoughts on how the electoral college will pan out and a percentage prediction for the popular vote. I will also give my predictions on the senate races.

 

[Brooklyn Zoo]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1321410628762951682

 

[snuffbox]

God, I'd be so happy if that proves accurate.

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

Thousands Of Trump Supporters Were Left Stranded In Freezing Weather After Omaha Rally

After the event, police found two groups of elderly Trump supporters who were struggling with the cold and at least seven were taken to the hospital.

www.forbes.com

He is literally going to kill his supporters. I mean he already has (Rot in Piss Herman)...

 

[BruiserBrody]

Early voting trends show Democrats falling short in 3 of 4 battlegrounds

The fact that Republicans were knocking on a million doors a week compared to none for Biden until the final weeks will result in Republicans winning Election Day by millions of votes. So far the D…

thehill.com

Polling indicates Joe Biden and the Democrats will win big. However, Democrats are falling short of the edge they need in early voting to offset the Republicans’ anticipated big edge in Election Day voting in three of four battleground states where data is available.

If pollsters adjusted to fix 2016 mistakes, the RealClearPolitics average in each state shows Biden winning 341-197 and Democrats taking control of the Senate. This grid shows a middle scenario, that state polling averages are just as far off as in 2016, that would add Wisconsin, Iowa and North Carolina to the Trump column, still leaving Trump short 310-228, but likely meaning the GOP held the Senate 51-49. The third scenario is that the fact that most poll respondents believe their neighbors are supporting Trump indicates he is actually going to win but people are scared to give their true opinion.

A strong ground game is crucial to Democrats, normally including collecting ballots everywhere from college campuses to nursing homes, and on Election Day driving thousands of vans filled with likely supporters to the polls. None of that is happening because of COVID-19, and the first time they tried to win an election with no ground game resulted in a double-digit loss.

The fact that Republicans were knocking on a million doors a week compared to none for Biden until the final weeks will result in Republicans winning Election Day by millions of votes. So far the Democrats have not built the 70 percent to 30 percent edge they need in early voting to wrap up a win.

=======

A new survey by the Trafalgar Group shows the president taking a tiny lead in the all-important swing state of Pennsylvania, which is worth 20 electoral votes.
Though it is just one poll and though it runs counter to several recent polls of Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign likely will take some comfort in knowing that the Trafalgar Group specifically is giving it a slight edge in the Keystone State.

Trafalgar has the distinction of being one of the only firms to have called the 2016 presidential election accurately. Even other polling groups called it crazy. Trafalgar correctly called Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina for Trump when other pollsters showed then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton winning. More importantly, Trafalgar predicted in the afternoon of Election Day in 2016 that Trump would win the Electoral College with 306 votes, which is exactly what happened.

 

[snuffbox]

That's an opinion article by a Trumper.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

That article also assumes a heavy Republican turnout for Trump on the actual Election Day, which I have more doubts on happening with every passing day. If even 1% can't vote due to car issues, long waiting in lines, cold weather, being sick/having COVID... that's huge. Also a lot of 2016 Trump voters may just refuse to vote on Election Day, period so that also will be a blow.

 

[BruiserBrody]

That's an opinion article by a Trumper.

Polls are at their heart, an opinion. As Bischoff says "Numbers lie and liars use numbers" or somesuch.

The hidden factors that could produce a surprise Trump victory

“The instruments we have to gauge this race, the polling, our predictive models … are built around quote-unquote normal elections. And this is anything but a normal election,” said one Democratic operative.

www.politico.com

“There are more known unknowns than we’ve ever had at any point,” said Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic data firm TargetSmart. “The instruments we have to gauge this race, the polling, our predictive models … the problem is all those tools are built around quote-unquote normal elections. And this is anything but a normal election.”

Flagging “clear warning signs” for Biden, one prominent strategist circulated a memo among Democrats earlier this month citing increasing registration of white, noncollege educated voters — President Donald Trump’s base demographic — in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. There is no precedent for Trump overcoming such a large polling deficit this close to the election, the strategist wrote. “And yet ... ”

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An analysis of the emotions being expressed on social media indicates that the upcoming U.S. presidential election may be a much closer contest than many commentators and pollsters believe.

That's the conclusion of Expert.ai, a company with offices in Modena, Italy, and Rockville, Md., that uses an A.I. technique called "sentiment analysis" to understand the emotions being expressed in social media posts.

The company's analysis puts Democratic candidate Joseph Biden ahead of President Donald Trump, 50.2% to 47.3%, a margin that is much narrower than the double-digit lead that Biden has over Trump in most national opinion polls.

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How Trump could repeat his 2016 upset in Pennsylvania

Trump's appeal to blue-collar Pennsylvanians has only grown, says veteran Republican consultant Charlie Gerow.

fortune.com

You might yawn and click on for deeper election punditry if I told you that a prominent Republican consultant in Pennsylvania predicts that Trump will pull an upset victory that surpasses his miracle win there in 2016. But Charlie Gerow is so well tuned to the ebbs and flows of momentum in every corner of the Keystone State, from the soccer sidelines in the Philadelphia suburbs to the saloons of the fracking patch, that it's well worth hearing why he believes Trump's poor poll numbers way understate his chances.

"I'd say we're where we were four years ago, maybe slightly better," Gerow told me. "Of course, an incumbent should be very far ahead at this stage if they're going to win. But Trump's a special case. I believe there's a significant under-vote that doesn't show up in the polls. A lot of Trump supporters don't want to be visible."

Gerow adds that the polls aren't catching the surging enthusiasm for Trump in the state's western oil tier. "These counties that were traditionally rock-ribbed Democratic are registering Republicans, a sign of a Trump victory bigger than last time," he says. "It's hard to fathom the support for Trump in the western region until you see the yard signs and talk to the folks in the bars and after church."

Gerow served on Ronald Reagan's staff during all three of his presidential runs, and worked as a surrogate for George G.W. and George W. Bush on their campaigns for the White House.

 

[snuffbox]

No, it's literally an opinion piece by a hardcore Republican. The Hill pays several Republicans to write such things for them.

 

[Mickey Massuco]

Just let him post that stuff. If he’s right, he can shove it in our face later. If not, we’ll all be too happy to care.

 

[BruiserBrody]

Just let him post that stuff. If he’s right, he can shove it in our face later. If not, we’ll all be too happy to care.

I haven't forgotten the horror of going to the breakroom at midnight or whatever it was and seeing the stations confirming Trump the winner.

It wasn't shock by because that came when when the returns started coming in and the pundits slowly realized 95 percent of their polls were wrong.

How exciting is a board circle jerk? Good lord guys dissenting opinions are healthy.

 

[snuffbox]

Cook has moved Texas to a toss up.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

How exciting is a board circle jerk? Good lord guys dissenting opinions are healthy.

While I may agree with this, in principle, I'm not sure I think that choosing to believe in conspiracy theories and alt-right fearmongering qualifies as a "dissenting opinion."

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Thousands Of Trump Supporters Were Left Stranded In Freezing Weather After Omaha Rally

After the event, police found two groups of elderly Trump supporters who were struggling with the cold and at least seven were taken to the hospital.

www.forbes.com

He is literally going to kill his supporters. I mean he already has (Rot in Piss Herman)...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1321453898540871680

 

[snuffbox]

From the wishful thinking dept, I think at least one of these major upsets will happen.

Biden flips Texas (if this happens, @geniusMoment gets credit for going out on that limb first)
The Dems win BOTH SIDES of Georgia
Bitch Graham loses
Ohio AND Florida go blue
Doug Jones defeats the celebrity
Kansas flips

I'll make at least one of these a prediction this weekend. I'm staying realistic but it feels a lot better to think about things like this, and see things like that 17% lead in WI poll, than to get all whacked up with anxiety about bad news and GOP opinion articles.

 

[909]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1321496997455712257

This would be SICK

 

[snuffbox]

BOTH SIDES...why not all three?!

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Some states worth highlighting... I think these all go for Trump but it's worth noting even in states he was well up in, his support has been dwindling a fair bit.

Alaska: Trump has varied between 4% on 10/6 to 6% (Sienna) on 10/16 and 10/21 saw 5%.
Indiana: Change Research on 9/10 had Trump up by 14%. SurveyUSA 10/14 saw Trump's lead down to 7%.
Kansas: Siena poll on 10/22 has Trump up 7% with 11% for 'Other'.
Nebraska: Axios poll has Trump falling from 16% on 10/1 to just up 7% on 10/17.

 

[909]

Some states worth highlighting... I think these all go for Trump but it's worth noting even in states he was well up in, his support has been dwindling a fair bit.

Alaska: Trump has varied between 4% on 10/6 to 6% (Sienna) on 10/16 and 10/21 saw 5%.
Indiana: Change Research on 9/10 had Trump up by 14%. SurveyUSA 10/14 saw Trump's lead down to 7%.
Kansas: Siena poll on 10/22 has Trump up 7% with 11% for 'Other'.
Nebraska: Axios poll has Trump falling from 16% on 10/1 to just up 7% on 10/17.

Yep. Biden won't win those but this is going to be a blowout. It all passes the smell test. The polls coming in from red states support the idea that he's up in slightly less red states than those.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1321514270119628800

 

[snuffbox]

Ted Cruz says the swelling national debt will reemerge as a major concern for Republicans

Under Trump, Republicans drove up the deficit with tax cuts and spending increases. They are reluctant to back another large coronavirus relief bill.

www.businessinsider.com

Cruz is certain that Trump will lose. Debt only matter when a Dem is in the White House.

 

[909]

538 bumped Georgia and Iowa over to blue. Interesting days ahead.

 

[909]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1321561198731603970

Lol.

 

[snuffbox]

And 538 is taking the Biden +17 poll in Wisconsin seriously.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Yep. Biden won't win those but this is going to be a blowout. It all passes the smell test. The polls coming in from red states support the idea that he's up in slightly less red states than those.

I do want to point out though that 538 does currently give Biden a better chance of winning Alaska (18%) than it does Trump winning Pennsylvania (15%). Montana isn't far behind either (Biden currently has a 14% chance). In a total blowout, it is at least possible that Biden could snipe those two.

It also gives Biden a better chance of pulling the upset in South Carolina than it does Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan.

 

[snuffbox]

After winning Alaska by 15 points in 2016, Trump's lead there now isn't a whole lot bigger than Clinton's was in Wisconsin. or example, the most recent NYT FAILING poll had Trump up by 6. He's lost about 2/3 of his support there and an upset is at least somewhat possible. The senate race there is a bigger stretch for the Dems but it's been another should-be slam dunk state that the GOP has had to divert millions to.

Montana is the reverse of the Alaska situation. The Biden upset is slightly less possible (but as Kahran mentions above, it could happen). But the Dems have a real shot at slipping a senate seat there.