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2024 Election

Who is going to win?

  • Kamala Harris

    Votes: 22 84.6%

  • Donald Trump

    Votes: 4 15.4%
  • Total voters
    26
  • Poll closed .
cobainwasmurdered

cobainwasmurdered

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www.newsweek.com

Pennsylvania poll giving Trump lead has pollsters up in arms

An American Greatness/TIPP survey of likely voters only included 12 responses from the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com

Good example of a bullshit poll from a usually good pollster to keep things a horse race. They excluded almost all of Philly to get a Trump positive result.
 
cobainwasmurdered

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I just posted earlier an example of a polling company altering data to try and shade things. I'm prepared to be wrong but it seems very obvious that all of the pollsters are still badly snakebit and because this is a close election are terrified of another 2016 situation. Most will avoid a definitive prediction right until the end.

As YPOV posted earlier the guy who has correctly https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...e-expected/articleshow/114158342.cms?from=mdr 9/10 of the last elections says Harris is winning. he also explicitly says he doesn't pay attention to polls.
 
snuffbox

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Big Papa Paegan said:
...to who? His supporters will talk about 5D chess and avoiding a trap, or some such, and then go back to chattering on about Jewish space lasers pushing hurricanes into MAGA territory to steal the election.
Click to expand...

Yes. Republicans like weakness. Draft dodging, wanting Putin to win, not working, whining when they don't get everything they want. The whole tread on me harder, daddy, thing.
 
HarleyQuinn

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Thought this was interesting... Arizona was 6% Republican lean, Georgia was a 2% Republican lean, NC was 2% Democratic Lean, Nevada was a 3% Democrat lean, and Wisconsin was 3% Republican lean. Polls were March 2024 with Biden vs. October with Kamala for perspective.

"The poll’s margin of error for each state was plus or minus 5 percentage points. In each of the swing states, 600 registered voters were surveyed between Sept. 28 and Oct. 8, and the poll included third-party candidates in states where they will be on the ballot."

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- Arizona went from 5% Trump to 2% Kamala
- Georgia went from 3% Trump to 1% Kamala
- Michigan went from 2% Trump to 2% Kamala
- North Carolina went from 6% Trump(!) to 1% Trump
- Nevada went from 4% Trump to 5% Trump
- Pennsylvania went from 3% Trump to 1% Trump
- Wisconsin went from 3% Biden to 1% Kamala

The undecideds went from 9-10% down to 5-6% but I think most of them know who they are voting for and didn't want to admit it.
 
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snuffbox

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I'm not without hope and a little confidence but, for me, this is become fairly worrying and unnerving.
 
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Harris is doing a Fox interview with Baier this week. I don't expect it will change the media narrative about her, though.
 
Incandenza

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snuffbox said:
I'm not without hope and a little confidence but, for me, this is become fairly worrying and unnerving.
Click to expand...
What has you worried? Harris currently running the "look how many Republicans like me" playbook that worked so well for Hillary Clinton in 2016? Couldn't be that, could it?
 
cobainwasmurdered

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I hate seeing most of these scum associated with Harris and the Dems but the difference between 2016 and now is Harris has gotten a very large group of current and former Republicans to cross over and endorse her. Hillary didn't do that. Biden did the same thing when he won. It's one of the issues with the Dems being the Big Tent party. The Republicans don't have a problem throwing everyone to the wolves and never looking back.

As far as the election results. All of the early voting trends continue to look favourable to Harris. If you were confident she was going to win a month ago I don't think there's really any reason not to be now. If you thought she wasn't going to, then probably same thing.
 
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abcnews.go.com

Video The election might not be that close after all | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses whether average polling error in presidential elections could translate into a landslide victory for either candidate.
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com

It's a podcast clip but I think it's worth taking into account how polling errors (in either candidates direction) effects our perception of how close the race is right now. If the media is hedging towards Trump like they have since 2016 than Harris is in a better position than it looks like. If the polling is accurate or leaning towards Harris (unlikely IMO) than she is in trouble.
 
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cobainwasmurdered said:
I hate seeing most of these scum associated with Harris and the Dems but the difference between 2016 and now is Harris has gotten a very large group of current and former Republicans to cross over and endorse her. Hillary didn't do that. Biden did the same thing when he won. It's one of the issues with the Dems being the Big Tent party. The Republicans don't have a problem throwing everyone to the wolves and never looking back.

As far as the election results. All of the early voting trends continue to look favourable to Harris. If you were confident she was going to win a month ago I don't think there's really any reason not to be now. If you thought she wasn't going to, then probably same thing.
Click to expand...

My reason for some dread, I think, is, at least in part, due to a different opinion on the media. My thoughts on how the media behaved in June/July is not shared on this message board. I think there is disagreement here on the gravity of the media's choices in 2016 as well. As the media ignores literal nazis in the Trump campaign to focus on Harris not doing enough interviews they want, or changing her mind on some policies/issues, (as I see it anyway) people notice it. Some people still trust the New York Times and when they ask the same elderly Trump-voting couple multiple times why they're "undecided," it drives the narrative and pushes some people in certain directions. Not necessarily a lot of people but these elections aren't being decided by a lot of people.
 
cobainwasmurdered

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snuffbox said:
My reason for some dread, I think, is, at least in part, due to a different opinion on the media. My thoughts on how the media behaved in June/July is not shared on this message board. I think there is disagreement here on the gravity of the media's choices in 2016 as well. As the media ignores literal nazis in the Trump campaign to focus on Harris not doing enough interviews they want, or changing her mind on some policies/issues, (as I see it anyway) people notice it. Some people still trust the New York Times and when they ask the same elderly Trump-voting couple multiple times why they're "undecided," it drives the narrative and pushes some people in certain directions. Not necessarily a lot of people but these elections aren't being decided by a lot of people.
Click to expand...

I understand being anxious as someone who spends too much time reading all of the news and social media but I don't think NYT stuff is one of those reasons tbh. They have very little influence on what is happening in swing states. I don't know what person who would be undecided/leaning against Harris would be a big NYT reader. If someone is citing the NYT as a reason they're not voing for Harris they're usually a troll who was always voting for Trump.


7 out of 10 Swing State voters do not trust the media to fairly and accurately report political news!
 
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