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2024 Election

Who is going to win?

  • Kamala Harris

    Votes: 22 84.6%
  • Donald Trump

    Votes: 4 15.4%

  • Total voters
    26
  • Poll closed .

Mickey Massuco

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The guy who predicted 9 of the last 10 elections correctly (only one he missed was Gore/Bush, which I’m still not sure Gore should have lost that one anyway) has picked Kamala. Seems like a sure bet now to me. I trust the system of the KEYS
 

Hawk 34

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Harris/Walz doing the podcast tour now including Walz appearing on Smartless and Harris on Call Her Daddy is a logical and proper move from the campaign to where voters actually are.

Also not to leave middle aged white men standing in the corner, Harris will appear on Stern and Walz on Kimmel.
 

Valeyard

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Harris on Stern, at one point, would've been captivating.
 

Valeyard

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Nah he wouldn't go for the sybian. Just dudes in blackface pretending to be people she put in jail or something. You know, classy and dignified.
 

Fall of Epic

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Harris/Walz doing the podcast tour now including Walz appearing on Smartless and Harris on Call Her Daddy is a logical and proper move from the campaign to where voters actually are.

Also not to leave middle aged white men standing in the corner, Harris will appear on Stern and Walz on Kimmel.

Hilary went on Stern right after the 2016 election and got good reviews from swing voters who said they would have voted for her if she did his show before the election because for the first time in her campaign, she came off as down to earth and relatable. Kamala is seeing that and getting ahead of it.
 

snuffbox

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I admit, I did make a lot of people over there weak, frightened, and reverential towards scripted celebrity game show hosts
 

HarleyQuinn

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Just posting this because MA has been getting AD NAUSEAM stuff related to the Craig/Ayotte race up in New Hampshire


New Hampshire is now the only state gubernatorial race ranked a toss-up. According to recent polls from University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm, the two candidates running for the office being vacated by Republican Gov. Chris Sununu are neck and neck.
 

Big Papa Paegan

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That's a real shit sandwich there. Ayotte is a flip-flopper that falls in with the rank and file after building a career as a moderate voice, and Craig was mayor of one of the shittiest fucking cities in the entire Northeast.
 

BruiserBrody

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[quote author=BRODY link=topic=7317.msg606823#msg6
There's nothing in the polls to force Trump into making another unforced error like "debating" (if that's what we call what that was). The swing states have been sliding in his direction no matter what nonsense he says.

Harris isn't helping herself by saying things like "I wouldn't change a thing" when asked about the Biden years in charge. They seem to be struggling to convey the increased drilling production to the masses as well as despite records of production being set, the polling is still showing people very unhappy with "muh gas prices!"

Trump's floating around 48-49 percent in Wisco in various polls, with Harris getting 48 pretty much every poll. Sen Baldwin is up several points over Millionaire Banker Hovde, which sets us up for another Ron Johnson style upset win as the hillbillies carry Wisco and the nation backwards.


Dems are at like 70 percent of the PA early voting, up from 2020 numbers - which is encouraging.



“We can’t look back with any level of security because we haven’t had an African American woman on the ticket. We haven’t had a former president running again. We haven’t had a campaign with two assassination attempts. We haven’t switched out a candidate two months before Election Day before.”

But the polls in the battleground states are tighter. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling average for swing states shows that no one has a lead of even a single percentage point in the nation’s seven key swing states.
 

cobainwasmurdered

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". We haven’t had a former president running again. We haven’t had a campaign with two assassination attempts. "

both of these are false.
 

HarleyQuinn

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There's nothing in the polls to force Trump into making another unforced error like "debating" (if that's what we call what that was). The swing states have been sliding in his direction no matter what nonsense he says.
Pretty much this. Both are still deadlocked or outright neck-and-neck in multiple states across the country and nationally in general. Trump has 0 incentive to engage in another debate with Harris when he can pander to his market and still hit the swing states to chip away at the leads Harris does have.
 

snuffbox

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If the Sept 10 event wasn't a debate, what was it?

I think Trump is refusing to debate again because he is scared and very weak.
 

Fall of Epic

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Kamala is having the CNN Town Hall regardless if Trump shows up or not. If Trump bails, he looks weak by backing down from her and Harris will certainly use that time to bash him while also explaining her policy. I don't think his ego will allow that to happen so I can see him agreeing to another debate "out of the goodness of his heart" and seeing him ramble on once again about nonsense.
 

cobainwasmurdered

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Right now 538 has Harris winning Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, and Trump winning Georgia, NC, and Arizona. If Harris can hold on to PA and Michigan than she just has to win any state other than NV whereas Trump would need every state but NV.

An open question is how Hurricane Helene is going to effect voting in some states as well. a lot of the worst devastation in NC is in deep red areas. They're trying to improve access to early voting there but how effective is that going to be? https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...-trump-harris-plans-north-carolina-rcna174828 Other states like Georgia are refusing to extend voter registration deadlines. They seem to think that's going to help the GOP but who knows if that's true.

All of the pollsters are hedging a ton if you look at their methodology. None of them (except the clearly partisans ones) want to commit to saying one side has a clear advantage. That way whoever wins they can say their data was right. None of them want a 2016.
 
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