2016 Election Thread (ROUND FIVE!)

[Cartman]

At this point, i'm more concerned with what is going to come AFTER the election if Trump loses, as many of the people who support him are insane.

 

[Edwin]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

538 polls only now has Florida as a dead heat with North Carolina and Nevada as toss ups. If Trump were to win all three he'd still need New Hampshire to get to 270 and that's not likely at all. Again Hillary will win but it this country is fucked beyond all belief to have this election even be remotely close.

It's fucked beyond belief that it's this close, but it's still not even as close as Obama/Romney. That's why I'm not sweating.

The real question is what happens after the election. Does Trumpism take hold and turn the Republican party into a powerful European-style nationalist/conservative party? Or does it totally break apart the party and lead to at least another 20-30 years of Democratic presidents? My expectation is the latter, but I'm optimistic.

 

[NoCalMike]

At this point, i'm more concerned with what is going to come AFTER the election if Trump loses, as many of the people who support him are insane.

Hell, forget about when it is over. I am concerned about what is going to happen on election day/night if exit polls in most swing states start favoring Hillary Clinton early on. What are all the "responsible poll observers" going to resort to.

 

[tekcop]

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/news/a50256/trump-child-rape-accuser-cancels-press-conference/

Nothing new to see here.

 

[Brocklock]

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/news/a50256/trump-child-rape-accuser-cancels-press-conference/

Nothing new to see here.

BUT THE EMAILS

 

[still fly]

This election is getting crazier by the moment. Don't know how real the Trump momentum is, but not good news for Hilary if the collapse of the black vote is true. Also bad news if this FBI investigation into the Clinton foundation is true.

Really don't know who or what to believe anymore

 

[KOAB]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cubs-have-a-smaller-chance-of-winning-than-trump-does/

 

[HarleyQuinn]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/30/election-poll-accuracy-in-doubt-with-disparity-out/

More proof that polls (IMO) are starting to become less accurate/struggle to accurately reflect the wide range of real voters.

"With the death of the landline, we are all scrambling to find alternative survey methods that give us valid and demographically accurate samples," the polling firm said. “We now use anonymous online panels like many pollsters do to reach voters under 40 and minorities in particular."

"The polling chaos has reached into individual states and candidates. Two TV station polls conducted at about the same time in New Hampshire: Republican Senate incumbent Kelly Ayotte is down 9 points in one and up 4 points in the other.

In Pennsylvania, two polls — Emerson College and Quinnipiac — show Republican Senate incumbent Patrick J. Toomey up 3 points and 4 points, respectively. But The New York Times says Democratic challenger Katie McGinty is up 3 points."

"The U.S. Senate race in Nevada between Democrat Cortez Masto and Republican incumbent Joe Heck is truly wild, pollingwise. An Oct. 24 NBC/WSJ/Marist poll has Mr. Heck up 7 points. The next day, Gravis Matketing said Mr. Heck was trailing by 6 points — two separate polls with a 13-point difference.

One reason for the volatility, Mr. Kimball said, is that voters keep switching, such as supporters of Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a Republican."

 

[Damaramu]

You aren't soothing my fears here.

 

[Edwin]

That's why we should probably only care about polling aggregates. Adjusting expectations based on a single poll is a recipe for heartburn.

Dama, just go to the Princeton Election Consortium site every few hours. They've had Clinton at 99% to win for several weeks. You'll also be happy to hear that early voting in Nevada--which makes up well over half of the Nevada vote--may have already locked that state for Clinton. That would basically win her the election, even if she dropped places like North Carolina and Florida.

 

[Byron The Bulb]

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-struggles-in-getting-african-americans-to-early-voting-polls-106931

After the first full weekend of in-person early voting ended Sunday, African-American turnout failed to meet expectations — or historic precedent — leaving top Democrats and activists fuming or worried that Clinton’s campaign isn’t living up to the hype in Florida.

“They’re not doing enough in the black community. I have been screaming for months about this and nothing changed and now look what’s happening,” said Democratic U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings, who represents one of South Florida’s largest African-American communities.

Hastings said he told Clinton aide John Podesta on a conference call last week that “you need to plus-up the spending in the African-American community and get out the vote.” Hastings said he was told someone would get back to him. “Nobody did,” he said.

It's weird what happens when you spend a whole election trying to win over shitty moderate Republicans and don't even bother to attempt to shore up your actual base. She's gonna blow it.

 

[Mickey Massuco]

post/av

 

[CookieMueller]

I always vote early here in Florida. In the past it's me and old white people. I voted yesterday and it was all black voters. Most of them around 30-40 but a few younger voters too. There was one Hispanic woman and me, the rest were black voters. I was very surprised to see this based on my past experiences voting early and left feeling pretty happy with the turnout. It was fairly busy for 11am on a Wednesday, too! Maybe the black voters are like me and waiting til the last damn minute to do early voting.

 

[Mickey Massuco]

Not having a black president makes a big difference on black voter turnout:

http://jointcenter.org/sites/default/files/Joint%20Center%202014%20Black%20Turnout%2010-29-14_0.pdf

Look at the difference in the turnout between 2008/2010/2012/2014. That could be because there was no presidential election, or it could be that lot of dems in general don't turn out for those non-presidential years. But that combined with the early voter turnout compared to the years when a black president was running makes it seem like that is the reason.

Hillary doesn't need a lot of those states to win, and her coalition goes beyond black voters, but the room is spinning....

 

[still fly]

The Democrats outside of Michelle and Barack Obama have done a terrible job of reaching out to African-Americans beyond stupid pandering. Latinos seem to have supplanted us as the minority du jour.

Hopefully this is the year that black people realize that our voting bloc has serious power. There is enough to swing an election.

 

[909]

You guys worry a lot about 538.

I saw them state that even though early voting is benefiting Hillary very strongly in North Carolina, Nevada, and Florida they are not allowed to factor it into their model. Polls > votes according to their model.

I do think the Clinton campaign made some really big mistakes though. Making the entire thing about Trump is what's opened this all up. We needed to hear more about how people aren't paying their fair share and how the opposing candidate is leading the charge to make them pay less.

 

[Edwin]

The other thing affecting black voter turnout right now is the ridiculous voter suppression tactics in places like North Carolina. If your state legislature gets away with closing 90% of early voting locations from 2012 while purging thousands of blacks from registration, turnout is going to drop, period. It's insidious.

Anyone who's scurred would do well to follow Jon Ralston on twitter. He's got tons of data on Nevada early voting and how that state is becoming the wall Trump cannot get past. I'm still expecting Clinton to win by about 4-6% nationally. That could have been higher, but the campaign played it safe and waited a little too long to go for the kill in places like Arizona and Georgia.

 

[909]

The other thing affecting black voter turnout right now is the ridiculous voter suppression tactics in places like North Carolina. If your state legislature gets away with closing 90% of early voting locations from 2012 while purging thousands of blacks from registration, turnout is going to drop, period. It's insidious.

Anyone who's scurred would do well to follow Jon Ralston on twitter. He's got tons of data on Nevada early voting and how that state is becoming the wall Trump cannot get past. I'm still expecting Clinton to win by about 4-6% nationally. That could have been higher, but the campaign played it safe and waited a little too long to go for the kill in places like Arizona and Georgia.

@jeremybird
FL: Yesterday was largest turnout of black voters so far (55k);
585K AA voters have cast votes so far, up 28% compared to same point in '12

https://t.co/L2WZ7kR1wL - link says she is also winning with people who haven't voted before.


People are just trippin the fuck out right now.

 

[cobainwasmurdered]

It's impossible to watch anything or talk to most people because so many are scared. But all the Americans I know, and I know a lot, are voting this time. That never happens. No one wants trump to win. The media is panicking people because they have no other compelling narrative to push. Anyone who dives into the numbers can see trump has no path to 270.

I am as confident Hillary is winning as teke184 was in Linda McMahons strong ground game! More so!

 

[Edwin]

I get it. Like smitty said, a 1% chance of Presidente Trump is too much. But as long as people turn out as expected--and so far, that's happening and then some--everything's cool. 4 more years of mandatory gay marriage and sexy abortion parties is just 5 days away!

 

[snuffbox]

Also tripping: Hillary Clinton. Literally. She fell down, get it??

 

[Brooklyn Zoo]

I get it. Like smitty said, a 1% chance of Presidente Trump is too much. But as long as people turn out as expected--and so far, that's happening and then some--everything's cool. 4 more years of mandatory gay sex parties is just 5 days away!

 

[Damaramu]

So I have a question.

Dadaramu and anyone else that's conservative on my Facebook are acting like the reopened FBI probe is going to get Hillary this time and she'll end up in jail.

Let's say she defeats Trump and that happens. Are we going to really be that sad about it? I feel like most people don't actually like her either but she's better than Trump so they're voting for her. I don't think many will shed tears if she's sold up the river, but maybe I'm wrong.

Plus don't most like Kaine better?

 

[snuffbox]

As a wealthy, white person Hillary Clinton will have to actually commit a crime before she goes to jail.

 

[909]

And she would have to be deposed in order to leave office which requires 2/3 of the Senate.

The Justice Department will not prosecute her over right wing conspiracies.

 

[cobainwasmurdered]

The FBI didn't even know what was in the emails when they reopened the probe Dama. They didn't even have a warrant for the first 2 days. Every email in there could be duplicates or totally irrelevant, they just don't know. Your father as usual has no idea what he is talking about.

 

[Edwin]

Many Republicans also don't seem to understand that even a successful impeachment just gives them President Kaine. They don't just get to install Paul Ryan as King Fuckboy.

 

[909]

Kaine would also much more easily win an election in 2020 than Hillary.

Although at the same time, I don't think any Republican is going to be able to turn out this group of people like Donald Trump did.

 

[909]

Most polls have Georgia extremely close, so I'm rolling with this.

 

[Mickey Massuco]

Hopefully a new alt-right party forms and splits that vote.