2016 Election Thread (ROUND FIVE!)

[909]

There is no way Trump is going to win.

I would bet everything I own that there's a huge opposition drop of video tape this weekend including him dropping n-bombs constantly.

So a co-worker and I have a bet about the election, he thinks Trump is going to take it and all of the headlines this morning about it being a deadlock have emboldened him in thinking so? Am I about to lose money?

You should double your bet.

 

[KOAB]

sad to see Obama works for the Russians now

 

[Edwin]

Trump is not going to win. Pundits are making this big fuss that he's close in NC and Florida, neither of which actually matter since he can't win Virginia, or Colorado, or Nevada, or Pennsylvania, or New Hampshire. They are doing this because they have nothing else to talk about for the next 8 days.

The only question is if Clinton wins comfortably--Obama 2012 margins--or in a complete and utter ass-beating--Obama 2008 margins. The latter means the Dems might actually take back the House of Representatives. The former means they probably just get the senate.

 

[909]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/31/fbis-comey-opposed-naming-russians-citing-election-timing-source.html

This is bad in the context of what he said on Friday and he's going to have to resign.

 

[snuffbox]

Has the media tried helping any presidential candidate as much as they have Trump?

 

[BigD]

Who is "the media"? Becaude any media I ever see are either making fun of him or talking about how bad he is or sexist etc.

 

[still fly]

The media was helping Hilary until last Friday

 

[HarleyQuinn]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/29/politics/early-voter-data/

These findings represent absentee ballots and early votes cast by more than 18.6 million Americans across 37 states where data are available.

"Some key Democratic groups, such as younger voters, wait until the last minute to mail in their ballots. In fact, 38% of all ballots returned have come from voters over 65, even though that age group was only 16% of the Colorado electorate in 2012."

 

[Bored]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/01/post-abc-tracking-poll-clinton-falls-behind-trump-in-enthusiasm-but-has-edge-in-early-voting/

A new ABC/Washington Post poll has Trump up 1. Now this is one poll and almost all projections still have Hillary winning comfortably but we have gone from "Trump has no chance in hell of winning" to "Ehhh, stranger things have happened" since the last debate which was an unfathomable scenario to me. I'm only internally screaming at the moment.

 

[Mickey Massuco]

This is probably how you felt after Game 5 of the NBA Finals last season...

uh oh

 

[Kageho]

So yeah, about those tax deduction schemes he used: they may still be illegal.

Also, just watched the Closer on Youtube (Keith Olbermann) and in it he talked about how Trump has a direct e-mail server connection with the Russian bank, Alfa Bank. The Trump Campaign is denying this (as is Alfa Bank), but now Trump can't say "well, Hilary had a private server, she must have something to hide" (or something similar, since I'm not actually about to figure out where to quote him from).

November 8th is going to be fun.

 

[Damaramu]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/01/post-abc-tracking-poll-clinton-falls-behind-trump-in-enthusiasm-but-has-edge-in-early-voting/

A new ABC/Washington Post poll has Trump up 1. Now this is one poll and almost all projections still have Hillary winning comfortably but we have gone from "Trump has no chance in hell of winning" to "Ehhh, stranger things have happened" since the last debate which was an unfathomable scenario to me. I'm only internally screaming at the moment.

Uh-oh. Someone reassure me. I don't like any scenario where Trump wins.

 

[BigD]

If Trump wins he will be your president for 4 years where he gets very little accomplished and the world will continue to spin.

 

[Damaramu]

I'm not worried about his policies or day to day operations because I feel like we're in the status quo for that stuff. I'm worried about his Supreme Court nominations.

 

[BigD]

Probably better than random republican president's nominations. 50/50 he nominates a hispanic woman to prove he's not what they say he is.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

He's already got a Heritage Foundation approved list that he says he will be pulling from.

 

[909]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/01/post-abc-tracking-poll-clinton-falls-behind-trump-in-enthusiasm-but-has-edge-in-early-voting/

A new ABC/Washington Post poll has Trump up 1. Now this is one poll and almost all projections still have Hillary winning comfortably but we have gone from "Trump has no chance in hell of winning" to "Ehhh, stranger things have happened" since the last debate which was an unfathomable scenario to me. I'm only internally screaming at the moment.

Uh-oh. Someone reassure me. I don't like any scenario where Trump wins.

A tracking poll that initially had Hillary ahead 12 points was probably not very accurate to begin with. Also, other polls were released yesterday which were conducted after Friday didn't show any changes.

http://election.princeton.edu/

 

[Damaramu]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/01/post-abc-tracking-poll-clinton-falls-behind-trump-in-enthusiasm-but-has-edge-in-early-voting/

A new ABC/Washington Post poll has Trump up 1. Now this is one poll and almost all projections still have Hillary winning comfortably but we have gone from "Trump has no chance in hell of winning" to "Ehhh, stranger things have happened" since the last debate which was an unfathomable scenario to me. I'm only internally screaming at the moment.

Uh-oh. Someone reassure me. I don't like any scenario where Trump wins.

A tracking poll that initially had Hillary ahead 12 points was probably not very accurate to begin with. Also, other polls were released yesterday which were conducted after Friday didn't show any changes.

http://election.princeton.edu/

So you're still confident he's not winning, right?

 

[BigD]

Just as confident as he was that Trump wouldn't win the primaries! 8)

 

[909]

Just as confident as he was that Trump wouldn't win the primaries! 8)

I'm one of the only people here who said he would. Everyone else here automatically ignores concerns of racist people even though they control Congress and try to marginalize them or pretend there aren't as many of them as there actually are.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/01/post-abc-tracking-poll-clinton-falls-behind-trump-in-enthusiasm-but-has-edge-in-early-voting/

A new ABC/Washington Post poll has Trump up 1. Now this is one poll and almost all projections still have Hillary winning comfortably but we have gone from "Trump has no chance in hell of winning" to "Ehhh, stranger things have happened" since the last debate which was an unfathomable scenario to me. I'm only internally screaming at the moment.

Uh-oh. Someone reassure me. I don't like any scenario where Trump wins.

A tracking poll that initially had Hillary ahead 12 points was probably not very accurate to begin with. Also, other polls were released yesterday which were conducted after Friday didn't show any changes.

http://election.princeton.edu/

So you're still confident he's not winning, right?

Yes, extremely so. There is still a blue wall that gets Hillary to 242 no matter what. She is polling ahead big in New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, North Carolina to mention a few. I am not worried in the slightest.

Even let's say she doesn't win North Carolina. She's also polling ahead nicely in Colorado which gets things to 273.

There is also nothing to indicate Trump will win Florida. Put on another 29. The early voting numbers were similar to Romney/Obama in terms of party split.

Iowa was also polling at a tie very recently. Until there's changes in the state numbers you can't really freak out.

The general election format does not favor Republicans because they still don't have any program to get out the vote. Democrats do. And you can't just win an election where everyone votes when only white people vote for you.

 

[909]

One thing the media hasn't talked about is that Trump is employing the McCain-Romney strategy of going to random states he hasn't been anywhere near polling decently in to try to flip those states out of nowhere. He went to New Mexico, Michigan, and Wisconsin so far this week.

Also that he is literally begging people to change their votes in states they're allowed to if they voted early. This does not sound like someone who think they're going to win.

#POLLS 11/1 3PM
■REU C+6
■ABC T+1
■SVM C+7
■CNBC C+10
■NOLA C+2
■AP C+14
■PEW C+6
■SU C+9
■DC C+12
■FOX C+5
■QUI C+7
■BLO C+9
■CBS C+9

There's literally one poll that has Trump ahead by +1 and people are wetting their bed.

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

Watched the first part of the Jill Stein-Gary Johnson debate on Tavis Smiley.

Gary Johnson looks and sounds like someone running for office in a Christopher Guest movie.

 

[Precious Roy]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/video-shows-trump-with-mob-figure-he-denied-knowing-090025964.html

 

[Mickey Massuco]

Joey Diaz called that shit.

 

[Edwin]

909 is correct on all fronts. No need for anxiety, Dama.

My blind spot in the primaries was thinking Trump would actually just give up because all he wanted was attention. Also, overlooking that he would really only need about 35% to run the table in such a crowded field. He never really got past that, but he won enough races when it was crowded that the nominee became a foregone conclusion by the time all but Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio had dropped out. Fortunately, those aren't issues in a (de facto) two-person contest, and polling reflects that.

 

[Brocklock]

Watched the first part of the Jill Stein-Gary Johnson debate on Tavis Smiley.

Gary Johnson looks and sounds like someone running for office in a Christopher Guest movie.

If it was Hillary vs Rubio or Kasich, Johnson would probably be a media sensation because of how weird he is. But, Donald Trump negates all that.

 

[bigolsmitty]

I'm starting to sweat a little. Even a 1% chance of a sociopath with his finger on the button is too much.

If Trump wins he will be your president for 4 years where he gets very little accomplished and the world will continue to spin.

He will likely accomplish a lot, as he will have a Republican Senate and House. He will almost certainly enact Paul Ryan's massive tax cuts on the highest brackets coupled with cuts in programs for the poor, as well as undoing all of Obama's efforts on climate change, likely unraveling the Paris Accords. He will massively ramp up deportations and seems likely to reenact a policy of torture by intelligence agencies and the military. Obamacare repeal, causing tens of millions of people to lose their health insurance, as well as repeal of the Dodd-Frank regulations on finance also are likely. Not to mention seating at least one Supreme Court justice, tipping the court's balance back toward the right.

This is probably the best case scenario for a Trump presidency.

 

[Damaramu]

What about all the gay people that are going to suddenly not be married anymore when his appointed Supreme Court justices repeal that?


Someone help me understand this. I understand why Republicans want to cut taxes for rich people, because they're also rich people that only care about the rich and not us, but what reasoning do they actually give to poor people for wanting to do it?

 

[bigolsmitty]

what reasoning do they actually give to poor people for wanting to do it?

The argument has always been "trickle down" or "a rising tide lifts all boats." Basically, you decrease taxes on "job creators" aka the rich and they invest heavily in the economy and create wonderful new jobs and we all get richer.

You can probably guess what I think about this theory, and its actual results in the real world.

 

[Bored]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

538 polls only now has Florida as a dead heat with North Carolina and Nevada as toss ups. If Trump were to win all three he'd still need New Hampshire to get to 270 and that's not likely at all. Again Hillary will win but it this country is fucked beyond all belief to have this election even be remotely close. The one bright side is Hillary's dip in the polls has had almost no effect on the senate projections, Dems still on track to take it.