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2016 Election Thread (ROUND FIVE!)

Who is going to win the election


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bigolsmitty

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Czech said:
So blithe condescension and disregard for people whose lives are shit was not a winning strategy for a center-left party after all.

I disagree that this was the strategy. Obama's policies and Clinton's policy agenda improved/would have improved their wellbeing. Was there some particular aspect of the Obama presidency or the Clinton campaign that "condescended to" or "disregarded" rural whites? I don't see it. Rural whites would benefit from having health insurance, parental leave, sick leave, pre-k, tuition free college, etc.
 

AA484

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This was an interesting read and probably sums it up better than anything I've read on why people support Trump. And yes, it's a Cracked article but still well worth reading:

http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/
 

NoCalMike

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The only solace I can take form the election results is that the GOP will do what they usually do after a victory and take the incorrect lesson from it. I am sure today you are going to hear all about how this is a win for conservative principles, but the truth is, a guy way to the left of Hillary was out-polling Trump in just about every way possible. This election had little to do with the actual issues, and more of a combination of Populism, and the Dems doing what the GOP does which is gift the nomination to someone because they feel it is "their turn."

The country was angry across the board, the GOP base put forth someone who promises to "shake things up." The Dem voter base attempted to do the same thing, and I have to believe if it was anyone but Hillary, then Bernie gets the nomination, easily. The Dems risked a candidate people were "medium" about and relied on Trump to self-implode, which he tried to do several times seemingly.

In the end Hillary just had so much baggage (albeit a lot of it was BS) that her stances on the actual issues were overshadowed by all the noise. The GOP had a 25+ year head start on ruining her as a candidate and a person, and the last 18 months was simply not enough time to rebuild all that with the people on the fence. A lot of counties that Obama crushed, were expected to also go to Hillary, however the turnout was simply not there. The enthusiasm wasn't there for her.
 

Damaramu

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I just don't get the enthusiasm thing. I mean Hillary doesn't excite you, but you don't want Trump to be president right? So get your ass out and vote!
 

NoCalMike

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Damaramu said:
I just don't get the enthusiasm thing. I mean Hillary doesn't excite you, but you don't want Trump to be president right? So get your ass out and vote!

In theory, yes, however time and time again it's proven that enthusiasm for a candidate does indeed matter.
 

Czech

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As Michael Moore pointed out, a disengaged supporter can still go out and cast his/her own ballot, but those voters aren't going to do their part to drum up enthusiasm, and I think that's what happened in a lot of places. People did their duty and voted for Hillary but in proud American tradition did the bare minimum required.
 

Damaramu

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AA484 said:
This was an interesting read and probably sums it up better than anything I've read on why people support Trump. And yes, it's a Cracked article but still well worth reading:

http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/

I kind of agree with some of this.

I'm pretty liberal myself but sometimes I get a lot of fatigue from people complaining about the bathroom situation or with constantly hearing about white privilege, black lives matter, Syrian refugees, etc. but I keep my mouth shut because:

A) I'm a white male who's not struggling so I'm not in their plight

B) I'm basically afraid it's wrong to have fatigue for any of that stuff or take a different viewpoint because I've been conditioned to believe it's wrong and I have to care


That didn't sound good, but hopefully you guys get what I'm saying.
 

geniusMoment

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Just a terrible day for this country. I started feeling trepidation last night when Florida turned from Hillary being up 3 points to being down 3 over the course of an hour, and the results in Virginia were a death knell. She should've won Virginia by a ton, especially with her VP pick. With her barely winning Virginia you knew NC was out of reach. And that Penn, Michigan and Wisconsin were now tossups.

Just terrible. I really don't think a lot of the social issues will end up changing (LGBT, abortion, legalized marijuana), because I still think the country's base is moving progressively left on those issues as a whole. If they do significantly change those issues my guess is there is major change again in 2 years, and even more in the next presidential election.

However, economically this is a potential atomic bomb. Dodd-Frank being destroyed is a real possibility, and who knows what the banking industry does with little regulations this time (I wouldn't count on them having learned their lesson). Reducing taxes from 35% to 15% for wealthy individuals and big businesses is just asking for a recession, and will spiral our debt out of control. These are things that really could/will be passed with Republicans controlling everything.

Just horrible.
 

Mr. S£im Citrus

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#sorrynotsorry said:
People survived 12 years of Reagan-Bush and 8 years of Dubya. We'll be ok

For differing values of "survival," sure. I mean, I'm not LGBT or a Muslim, so there are still a shit ton of people who will be worse off than me, but this is definitely not a "both sides are equally bad" outcome from my perspective.

This is probably the first time since I started that I'm really glad that I'm working in a family-owned business, and that our clientèle is roughly ninety-nine percent non-white, in a town that's 67 percent black. I don't think I could handle having to deal with someone who voted for Trump today.
 

Mr. S£im Citrus

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Also, I've never been happier that this message board is the closest thing to social media that I generally allow myself to indulge in.
 

AA484

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Be glad, although Facebook is the only other thing besides the board I use and I've blocked most of the worst offenders.
 

NoCalMike

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Damaramu said:
AA484 said:
This was an interesting read and probably sums it up better than anything I've read on why people support Trump. And yes, it's a Cracked article but still well worth reading:

http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/

I kind of agree with some of this.

I'm pretty liberal myself but sometimes I get a lot of fatigue from people complaining about the bathroom situation or with constantly hearing about white privilege, black lives matter, Syrian refugees, etc. but I keep my mouth shut because:

A) I'm a white male who's not struggling so I'm not in their plight

B) I'm basically afraid it's wrong to have fatigue for any of that stuff or take a different viewpoint because I've been conditioned to believe it's wrong and I have to care


That didn't sound good, but hopefully you guys get what I'm saying.

The bigger issue is that a lot of these people learn about these issues from a right-wing perspective and never move beyond that. I am sure you see this on social media that people who are not normally political start posting articles from breitbart and the like, and they never even look at all to go beyond that narrow perspective. It's like they read one article or watch one segment on Fox News about an issue, and their mind is permanently made up. So much garbage is shared and consumed before issues are actually discussed and studied.

The BLM movement is a good example. Look at how easy it was for right-wing media to make it an anti-cop thing.
 

AA484

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It's because that's what their parents watched and read. It's the same with religion. Until they get the courage to explore beyond their comfort zone, they'll still be reading the same news sources and going to the same church they have since they were born. I think it's more that these people are afraid of what their parents and friends may think of them if they say, took a stance for LGBT rights or stopped going to church any more.
 

BlackFlagg

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Right now I think I'm most annoyed by the "We must unite and stand behind our President no matter what!" posters....Yeah, how about we take a quick look at your posting history for the last 8 years and see how that's been going when it wasn't your guy in office.
 

909

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The takeaway from this election is that people didn't listen and thought a demographic that contains more people than any other didn't matter.

The days of attempting to influence people through smug celebrities and talking down to them are fucking over. This is an extreme backlash against that, and that type of behavior.

The Democrats will have to find somebody who puts their feet on the ground in 2020, who can go connect with these people. It's going to be a white guy. Then all these people with racial views who think there's something wrong with white guys running for President or being in charge are going to have to go vote for them. It's a pretty concerning situation.
 

Mickey Massuco

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CwyU_-TUUAAUvjR.jpg


this is real life now.

this folder produced a bunch of shitposts in hindsight, and I was a strong part of that. oh well. I'm gonna stick to the MMA folder, posting in this contained vacuum is part of the problem.

SMITTY AND EDWIN YOURE A COUPLE OF REAL BELTWAY BUREAUCRATS YOU SHOULDA BEEN MAKIN DEALS THROUGH ZANY ADVENTURES ON CAPITOL HILL
 

909

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You also have to wonder how any of us could have misread this situation. Both primaries made very clear that people were tired of corporations trampling on us, tired of free trade, and even more tired of the status quo. Yet we somehow thought this would be different? We're all idiots.

The Clinton campaign and everyone else also thought they could beat around the bush on his racism without challenging him directly during these debates. Not sure that was smart either. People were looking for some sort of charisma in Hillary, any kind of fire they could get. They didn't get it.
 

BruiserBrody

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[quote author=BRODY link=topic=7317.msg606823#msg6
Should I admit I legit teared up when I woke up for work last night and saw Hillary was collapsing (and the MSNBC talking heads were grim)?

I had a FB friend write "Bring on the wall!" and another said he voted for Hillary, then felt guilty because she was going to take his guns. /Wisconsin

I tried to trigger my Trump friends this morning

As largely a liberal minded person (Catholic upbringing makes abortion a real thorn to deal with) (I'm also pro-gun) I am swallowing bitter tears this morning. Hillary lacked the ability to inspire the base, and now we seem to have a real scary option running about to run the country. Of course the email scandal devoured her reputation, and the Obamacare rates that many warned me years ago were coming, did in fact deliver another hearty death blow to her race. Working the 3rd shift allowed me to watch many of Trump's speeches, and I generally found them to be full of bluster and vague generalities. ("We are going to get rid of Obamacare and replace it with something great") Trump's more grand plans (THE WALL, A deportation squad, and more recently, his plan to establish a safe zone in Syria for Syrians) all scream huge government spending, and he, with control of the congress and Senate with inevitably cut taxes, and suddenly we'll have Bush 2.0 for the economy. Add in his proclamation to rip up the international climate control agreement, and I have a whole lot of concern. Trump was elected as an agent of change, so we'll see how he forms his cabinet and if he brings along his merry band of scandal plagued surrogates such as Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani and Chris Christie. I'd enjoy hearing your particular reasons for voting for the Donald, was it a particular issue (ISIS was reported to be a major reason people went to him vs Clinton) or was it a case of taking whoever would bear the "R" next his their name? I am not looking to argue, genuinely curious.

Got no bites
 

NoCalMike

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I agree that the working-class white folks made the difference, and while they remain the biggest single voting base for now, the demographics are changing. I think they strategic error was looking down the road too much at what the demographics will be eventually, instead of realizing it isn't there just yet.

On the other hand, the same working-class white folks voting for Trump seem to buy into a populist message that lacked much substance. They heard the word "jobs" and got wet between their legs, despite doing any research to see that Trump's ideas on economics will do little to bring back jobs, and probably will have more go away.
 

BigD

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BigD said:
Judging from facebook comments Imma be the first to declare Trump the winner.

I know that's not scientific, but seriously. Every news article I clicked on had overwhelmingly pro Trump trolls posting.
 

Mickey Massuco

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The worst part is that I predicted Trump winning the primary and said he had a legit shot at winning the presidency back in the summer of 2015. People thought I was mad. I had a bad feeling in my stomach as mentioned about the possibility the whole time.

But I was easily swayed by the stupid media and the regressive left into thinking that it was not that big a deal for hillary surrogates to shit all over the bernie base, that the trade stuff I constantly posted about didn't matter, that constantly alienating white rural poor people didn't matter, that minorities didn't like to be pandered to, etc. I am embarrassed that I let these people convince me that my GUT feeling was wrong.

btw Brody; Newt, Rudy and Christie will all have jobs in Trump's cabinet.
 

Mickey Massuco

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This is what happens when liberals argue about hypothetical constructs, ignoring the context of the world we live in. On the plus side, the abject failure of this philosophy last night means liberals will have to smarten up and get pragmatic.
 

909

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Also, on the changing demographics front, this is happening in states the Democrats haven't won and hope to flip blue (despite people like Wendy Davis getting absolutely blown out in elections), and in states where you can automatically check them off for the Democratic Party anyway.

This is NOT happening in the states that won Trump the Presidency. In those states white people decided to vote like a minority, and that's why Trump won them.
 

909

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The Four Boardsmen said:
This is what happens when liberals argue about hypothetical constructs, ignoring the context of the world we live in. On the plus side, the abject failure of this philosophy last night means liberals will have to smarten up and get pragmatic.

Not gonna happen. We will put up a bad minority candidate in 2020 and lose.
 

Dandy

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The a Democratic candidate in 2020 will be a product of these next three years. He or she will be exactly whatever is needed based on what Trump does.
 

Edwin

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Juicy Juice Boy said:
You also have to wonder how any of us could have misread this situation. Both primaries made very clear that people were tired of corporations trampling on us, tired of free trade, and even more tired of the status quo. Yet we somehow thought this would be different? We're all idiots.
Kinda. What's staggering is that she's still going to win the popular vote by 1.5-2%. It's the electoral college advantage that we misread more than anything, and presents a massive challenge.
 
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We need a young Bernie. Or at least someone people can get enthusiastic about. That shit is probably more important than actual plans.
 

still fly

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Or Trump actually ends up being an effective president and the left continues not to learn from the past.
 

909

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Having faith in the DNC to pick the right candidate for us into this mess. And Hillary isn't the only one. People like Katie McGinty should never be chosen by a major political party.

People chose hack candidates and got a hack election. Another sad fact is that some issues like the death penalty were permanently settled last night
 
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