Which states that Biden won in 2020 are you certain that Trump is going to win this time around?
For context Biden won Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Georgia.
Biden eked out Arizona & Georgia & Pennsylvania & Wisconsin but won Colorado handily, won Michigan by almost 4%, won Minnesota by 7%, Nevada by 3%, won New Hampshire fairly handily, and Virginia by almost 10%.
Trump barely won NC by 1.3% and won Florida by 2%.
I could see Arizona & Georgia going back to Trump but all Kamala needs to do is win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and take NC while keeping the momentum in the states that Biden won by a decent margin. Give Trump North Carolina even and Kamala still wins with 276. Give Trump PA instead and Kamala wins with 273.