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2024 Election

Who is going to win?

  • Kamala Harris

    Votes: 22 84.6%
  • Donald Trump

    Votes: 4 15.4%

  • Total voters
    26
  • Poll closed .

BruiserBrody

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[quote author=BRODY link=topic=7317.msg606823#msg6

36,325,688 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally​

42% Democrat, 40% Republican, and 18% Independent. I think the media (shocking!) are falsely equating Dem = Kamala and Repub = Trump in regards to the voting when it comes to the turnout numbers. There's a lot of Republican/Independent dislike towards Trump and remember that RFK Jr is going to siphon votes in several states in a "neither option is good" manner, which will be a bigger blow to Trump. I think the Democrats who'd vote for Trump are way less a factor than the Repubs that will vote for Kamala and the mediate is staying completely ignorant of that.
Tin foil hat Brody is willing to believe the polls/early voting hoopla is part of the prep for the next round of "Stop the Steal" grifting if/when Orange Man loses.
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He kept his MAGA goofs in the cold Michigan air for 3 hours yesterday before arriving as the Joe Rogan appearance messed up his campaign plan. They apparently didn't bother to tell the audience until everyone was already there.
 

snuffbox

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A lot of those Michiganders left while Trump spent hours talking to that bald doofus in a basement studio.

Meanwhile, in Texas, Harris drew some 30,000 people breaking her record she'd just set the day before in Georgia.
 

HarleyQuinn

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But Trump is drawing 35K in a place that holds 13K according to Eric Trump!!!!
Clearly the people walking by on the sidewalks, driving by in their cars/trucks, and going into apartments/bars/hotels are just there for Donald! Stop trying to diminish his GOD-like drawing power, @BruiserBrody
 

Gary

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Every clip of Trump being interviewed by Rogan I've seen suggests it wasn't that different than the Elon one except Rogan actually pushed back against some of Trump's bullshit (thus doing a better job than several journalists who have interviewed or delt with him). The man came off as nearly braindead several times, didn't seem to know how to answer questions, made erroneous statements that felt more like confusion than his normal lying, went into his usual incoherent rambling and at one point even Rogan laughed at him. How is this man allowed to speak in public, let alone run for president? It feels like elder abuse except you hate the man being abused.*

Also, Rogan actually gave him an opportunity to prove the election was stolen, and Trump couldn't do it. Not only because it didn't happen, but because it's become more obvious than ever that he knows he lost.

*I'd also use that description to describe Biden, but this and the Elon interview somehow made Trump seem even more far gone.
 
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Broward83

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Voted Thursday night at a nearby library. For as much as y'all aren't seeing a ton of MAGA stuff near y'all, I see it everywhere in my south of Houston suburb area. As I was walking to the car, a woman was pulling in with her truck that had four MAGA caps on the dash, a Trump profile picture on the back passenger window with a Trump 2024 sticker on the side of the truck.
 

snuffbox

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Yeah, there does seem to be a lot of Trump worship still going on in red, purple, and battleground states. Before leaving Wisconsin in the summer I noticed plenty of signs and billboards that have been up for years. The only change, up to early July, was some removal of Pence's name. Now I'm in Tim Walz's former hometown, a college town, and the signage is close to 50-50. When I've been out canvassing I've encountered a lot of trumpers.

It is probably still as close as the polls suggest (if not potentially worse). My hope is that there's a significant number of new voters, those who don't partake in polls, or those reticent to be public for fear of republican violence to counteract that all too closeness.
 

Dandy

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Still huge Trump worship here in WV. And even in one of the most liberal pockets of the state, college town Huntington, there are two city council candidates that have openly supported and/or defended the Jan 6 insurrection. One was an organizer of several busses that took people there for the event.

It is going to take a long time to reverse the cancer.
 
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HarleyQuinn

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Remember this is the "final poll" where they are supposedly tied at 48-48.

Worth noting the heavy weight towards the South. 902 Respondents vs. 532 in the Midwest, only 507 in the Northeast (which heavily favors Kamala), and 572 in the West (which also favors Kamala) so of course the "total" would make a headline that favors Trump. You swing that South vs Northeast and you'd get a title with Kamala stomping Trump in the poll probably.

Also the aging was heavily skewed towards Trump (no surprise). 33% were 46-64 (right in his wheelhouse) and 29% were 65+ of 2,500+ voters. That's over 60% of everybody polled. Only 13% (who heavily lean to Kamala) were 18-29 and 22% were 30-44, who also favor Kamala.

68% (38% being White w/No College... again Trump lean) of those polled were white with only 10% being Non-White, College who favored Kamala 66-28.

I feel like this is a case where the Siena Poll massively under-weighted the pro-Kamala areas and are representing a distorted image that is making Trump closer to Kamala nationally than it may really be.
 

Fall of Epic

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I still think Kamala will win (only slightly) but it wouldn't surprise me if Trump prevails. The key is voting and hopefully any undecided and new voters will vote for her. This is my 18 year old nephew's first election and I know he's voting for her.
 

snuffbox

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Remember this is the "final poll" where they are supposedly tied at 48-48.

Worth noting the heavy weight towards the South. 902 Respondents vs. 532 in the Midwest, only 507 in the Northeast (which heavily favors Kamala), and 572 in the West (which also favors Kamala) so of course the "total" would make a headline that favors Trump. You swing that South vs Northeast and you'd get a title with Kamala stomping Trump in the poll probably.

Also the aging was heavily skewed towards Trump (no surprise). 33% were 46-64 (right in his wheelhouse) and 29% were 65+ of 2,500+ voters. That's over 60% of everybody polled. Only 13% (who heavily lean to Kamala) were 18-29 and 22% were 30-44, who also favor Kamala.

68% (38% being White w/No College... again Trump lean) of those polled were white with only 10% being Non-White, College who favored Kamala 66-28.

I feel like this is a case where the Siena Poll massively under-weighted the pro-Kamala areas and are representing a distorted image that is making Trump closer to Kamala nationally than it may really be.
Thank you for posting this. I still think the NYT does have an influence on these things.
 

snuffbox

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Is that why they did all the anti Puerto Rican stuff at the nazi rally today?
 

cobainwasmurdered

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No that stuff seems to have provoked all the celebs to finally come out and endorse Kamala. There's been a flood of huge names doing it.
 

Mickey Massuco

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That Tony Hinchcliffe speech that caused Bad Bunny to endorse Harris was genuinely racist and unhinged. He’s called people “race traitors” in the past for laughing at an Asian comedian’s jokes.


There’s something off about him.

1730084773060.jpeg

Dead eyes, like a serial killer.
 

treble

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He's very unlikeable. His ego ballooned after the Tom Brady roast and he must think he's untouchable now or something. He was tweeting through it last night, claiming "the left" doesn't have a sense of humour after Walz said something about it when even the people in the building didn't laugh at the joke. Him re-tweeting someone comparing him to fucking Don Rickles was hilarious.

He's going to be even more insufferable now.
 

snuffbox

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No that stuff seems to have provoked all the celebs to finally come out and endorse Kamala. There's been a flood of huge names doing it.
I hope that helps. There seems to be, for a lot of Americans, an almost religious war as far as celebrities go: they worship their celebrity, Trump, to such an extent that the only others they won't send death threats to, etc, are the Hulk Hogan types who fall in lockstep.
 

HarleyQuinn

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Officially voted :) There are several ballot questions for MA that are gonna be interesting. The big one is whether the MCAS should be kept as a requirement for graduation (I voted 'No' to keep it as is) but that is one that could get passed/overturned and no longer make the MCAS a requirement but still taken by students.
 

skullman80

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We don't have early voting in PA per se, but you can go and vote early by "mail in". Wife and I both went Saturday morning and did just that so we don't have to wait in what would be long lines on election day. Only took about 20 minutes.

Basically they printed out a mail in ballot with our info and we filled that out and handed it back to them. They then "send it in". PA is so ass backwards with this stuff. I don't think they can even start counting the mail in votes until election day.

Oh well did what we could to not let Trump win.
 

snuffbox

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From the Will the 3287th Time Be the Charm dept: will the nazi rally have any meaningful impact?
 

Fall of Epic

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I want to reiterate than the people at the MSG rally were majority non-NYers. Most of those bozos were Long Island, Upstate, and Jersey folks. I'm sure there was a very small percentage from the city but the majority wouldn't have been caught dead there.
 

snuffbox

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I assume many of them came from other states and were attending their umpteenth rally. Or, as the NYT calls them, undecided voters.
 

Sex Machine Gun

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I don't know how to do Twitter links but what the fuck is this "me and Mike Johnson have a little secret, we'll let you all know when the race is over" shit?
 

Spaceman Spiff

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We don't have early voting in PA per se, but you can go and vote early by "mail in". Wife and I both went Saturday morning and did just that so we don't have to wait in what would be long lines on election day. Only took about 20 minutes.

Basically they printed out a mail in ballot with our info and we filled that out and handed it back to them. They then "send it in". PA is so ass backwards with this stuff. I don't think they can even start counting the mail in votes until election day.

Oh well did what we could to not let Trump win.
You can absolutely vote by mail in PA (or by depositing into a ballot dropbox), as I am in the Philly suburbs (Montgomery County) and have been receiving my ballot by mail every year since 2020. I did what you did back in 2020, but have been mail only since. Although I do think I need to "re-register" each year to get ballots by mail.

I just Googled and it appears any registered voter can request to vote by mail - https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/vote/voter-support/mail-in-and-absentee-ballot.html

Additionally:
You now have the option to request to be added to the annual mail-in ballot request list where you'll receive an application to renew your mail-in ballot request each year. Once your request is approved, you will automatically receive ballots for the remainder of the year, and you do not need to submit an application for each election.
 

snuffbox

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I don't know how to do Twitter links but what the fuck is this "me and Mike Johnson have a little secret, we'll let you all know when the race is over" shit?
It's an outright admission, by no less than the party nominee and the speaker of the house, that the GOP is planning to try stealing this election, too.

But the bigger news is I heard that Harris may have quoted things that Trump's former cabinet picks, vice president, and highest ranking military leaders had said about him.
 

skullman80

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You can absolutely vote by mail in PA (or by depositing into a ballot dropbox), as I am in the Philly suburbs (Montgomery County) and have been receiving my ballot by mail every year since 2020. I did what you did back in 2020, but have been mail only since. Although I do think I need to "re-register" each year to get ballots by mail.

I just Googled and it appears any registered voter can request to vote by mail - https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/vote/voter-support/mail-in-and-absentee-ballot.html

Additionally:
Yeah sorry didn't mean you couldn't do mail in super early. We did it that way in 2020. I'm just saying that Early voting in PA doesn't exist like other states where you just go and cast your vote and its processed right away like on a voting machine etc.

You can mail it in like a normal mail in, or if you go to an in person voting location early to "vote" it's treated as a mail in (or drop of your mail in a drop box).

When we went on Saturday they literally took our information printed it out, we filled it out, stuffed it in an envelope and they took it to ....mail it somewhere or drive it somewhere.

I like voting in person, but neither my wife or I wanted to deal with the lines this year. It's nice you can track your "mail" in ballot on the web to make sure it actually gets counted.
 
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