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2024 Election

Who is going to win?

  • Kamala Harris

    Votes: 22 84.6%
  • Donald Trump

    Votes: 4 15.4%

  • Total voters
    26
  • Poll closed .

909

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snuffbox

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A great and not impossible scenario:

Biden steps down and Harris immediately starts building a bigger and bigger lead. The republicans self-sabotage by embarrassing themselves with celebrities and fake electors at their convention & the Project 2025 stuff. The delayed sentencing for his 34 felony convictions ends up tanking Trump further. Harris picks a likable, relatable VP that helps nationally and in a swing state. She crushes Trump in their debate. Harris wins by even more than Biden's 7 million last time, the Americans narrowly retain the Senate and win back the House on the rising tide and the GOP's own foot shooting.
 

Spaceman Spiff

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Riiiiiight. I've got a bridge for sale if anyone is interested.

Again, it would've been nice for Dems to keep/have kept this shit in house and not act like unpaid Trump campaigners in public. I don't see any Repubs or their donors out here in public calling for Trump to step down.
 

Cackling Co Pilot Kamala

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How do you keep it in house when 51 million people saw the POTUS look cognitively impaired? Is electoral politics just going to be whichever party mindlessly backs the preselected leader wins?
 

909

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How do you keep it in house when 51 million people saw the POTUS look cognitively impaired? Is electoral politics just going to be whichever party mindlessly backs the preselected leader wins?
51 million is also just the people who watched it as it happens. But everyone saw it with TikTok, Facebook, Twitter, etc. I can't get away from people talking about this. And I've tried!
 

Tino Standard

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I don't see any Repubs or their donors out here in public calling for Trump to step down.
I said this to my mom, a lifelong Republican, last week. “There are supporters of both of our parties who say both candidates are terrible. There is a faction within the Democratic party that is trying to push Biden to step aside so they can run a better option. Why won’t anyone on the other side of the aisle show some spine to do the same with their candidate if they are really dissatisfied?” No response.
 

Incandenza

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Keeping it "in house" would have likely led to no real change. Going public with it, people anonymously speaking to journalists about it, etc is the only hope of building enough pressure to lead to Biden to stepping down. My only quibble is this should have happened at least a year earlier.
 

snuffbox

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Riiiiiight. I've got a bridge for sale if anyone is interested.

Again, it would've been nice for Dems to keep/have kept this shit in house and not act like unpaid Trump campaigners in public. I don't see any Repubs or their donors out here in public calling for Trump to step down.

Many (I would say most) Dems/liberals/progressives take a "want everyone to be happy" approach. There is a lot wrapped up in that: financially comfortable and otherwise status-holding people feeling like they got their there's so nothing else matters, people 'below' them kowtowing to them, not wanting to offend Republicans, "both sides" type bullshit, desire to be 'civil' and not confront knowingly problematic and outright evil things, etc. And so this side is much more apt to turn on itself and self sabotage because, often with various degrees of privilege acting as blinders, there just isn't the necessary concern for those who get hurt in the fallout (women, people with disabilities, poverty, etc).

On the other hand, Republicans genuinely like the worst and nastiest stuff. Causing harm is their meaning of life. And they love tv and internet celebrities.
 

snuffbox

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I found it neither sad, abusive, embarrassing, or bad. He answered the questions. There was logic, focus, and credibility. I have no interest in discussing the occasional verbal gaffe; Biden's had those for decades. Anyone who's going to follow the media's current 24/7 narrative is going to follow that no matter what. To each their own but that's just not interesting to me. The thing lasted like 50 minutes and included lots of specifics. The other guy could not handle that for 50 seconds.

But while I didn't take a sky is falling conclusion from this, it probably didn't move the needle in any direction. Those who are opposed will remain opposed. Those who are supportive and/or respectful of Biden will remain so.

And some of the answers left at least some room to allow a change of the ticket. Biden noted that others can defeat Trump. I don't know if tonight changed anything as far as the trajectory but that door did seem slightly ajar.
 

cobainwasmurdered

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I was supportive of Biden before the debate. But it is clear he is in real cognitive decline. I have spent plenty of time around friends and family suffering from dementia. He has all the signs.

He constantly meandered off course during this. It wasn't just one gaffe or something.
 

snuffbox

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I was supportive of Biden before the debate. But it is clear he is in real cognitive decline. I have spent plenty of time around friends and family suffering from dementia. He has all the signs.

He constantly meandered off course during this. It wasn't just one gaffe or something.
I don't begrudge that at all.
 

BruiserBrody

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[quote author=BRODY link=topic=7317.msg606823#msg6
A great and not impossible scenario:

Biden steps down and Harris immediately starts building a bigger and bigger lead. The republicans self-sabotage by embarrassing themselves with celebrities and fake electors at their convention & the Project 2025 stuff. The delayed sentencing for his 34 felony convictions ends up tanking Trump further. Harris picks a likable, relatable VP that helps nationally and in a swing state. She crushes Trump in their debate. Harris wins by even more than Biden's 7 million last time, the Americans narrowly retain the Senate and win back the House on the rising tide and the GOP's own foot shooting.
The counter to that is the Dems look in disarray, Harris then gets the full blunt of the GOP attack, that margin of error poll lead evaporates and the election winds up ultra tight as old people have to be scared to vote for not only a woman, but one with dark skin complexion. She can't promo like Obama so potentially make up for it.
She still has the inflation issue and all the other Biden policies to atone for that have dinged Biden.
Once she's the face of the race, she's also not the far less known "Candidate X" who can appeal to voters who want a change. Those likeability polls in the past suggest she doesn't appeal to voters once they know her.
And the whole issue with all the Super Pac money not transferring (Unless there is some out there since she is the co-candidate.)
Her home state is full of lawless crime and rampant homelessness.

It will be a fun show to watch unfold either way.
--

Maybe for the second debate Biden can bring Epstein's body on stage like Kane did to Taker in the build to WM 14.
 

Cackling Co Pilot Kamala

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I didn’t get the chance to see it since I was out to dinner with the family but difference in discourse about this press conference between here and Reddit is wild. Reddit is 75% positive.

I think though discourse has turned against him so badly that he probably could have done twice as well tonight and it still wouldn’t have changed any minds.

One thing I don’t see brought up though. If Biden drops out, he would have to resign as POTUS, yeah? If GOP are obstructive now, imagine how bad they’d be with six months of lame duck, old man Biden. Kamala having to adjust to the Oval Office and campaign at the same time would be daunting too.
 
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