The 2024 Box Office thread

[Brocklock]

Oh for sure. It should easily do over a 100 million opening. Maybe 150 or more. The sky's the limit. She's like the closest musician we have to a Elvis or Michael Jackson. This Eras tour is humongous.

It opened with a 39 million Friday and will finish around the 90-100 million range. It's got a shot at beating Joker's 96 million for the top October opening. So I overestimated the power of Swifties a bit, but it's still an amazing opening for a concert film. There were people on r/boxoffice predicting End Game/Force Awakens/Avatar numbers, and saying this will do a billion worldwide, and now they are calling it a disappointment which is hilarious.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

It opened with a 39 million Friday and will finish around the 90-100 million range. It's got a shot at beating Joker's 96 million for the top October opening. So I overestimated the power of Swifties a bit, but it's still an amazing opening for a concert film. There were people on r/boxoffice predicting End Game/Force Awakens/Avatar numbers, and saying this will do a billion worldwide, and now they are calling it a disappointment which is hilarious.

It actually opened on Thursday (or at least added theaters via announcement literally the day before and still made a crazy $2.8 Million off less than 24 hours' notice). It's already gonna do better than the box office of other features like Justin Bieber & Michael Jackson which did around the $70 Million mark for their entire runs.

I don't think it will do $1 Billion worldwide (although there's a chance) but I can see this doing $300+ Million domestically pretty easily, which would put it around the The Little Mermaid/Oppenheimer area.

 

[Gary]

1	-	Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour	$96,000,000	-	3,855	-	$24,902	$96,000,000	1	-
2	1	The Exorcist: Believer	$11,000,000	-58.5%	3,684	+21	$2,985	$44,926,950	2	Universal Pictures
3	2	PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	$7,000,000	-38.2%	3,707	-320	$1,888	$49,886,716	3	Paramount Pictures
4	3	Saw X	$5,700,000	-27.3%	3,058	-204	$1,863	$41,429,120	3	Lions Gate Films
5	4	The Creator	$4,300,000	-31.1%	2,960	-720	$1,452	$32,405,744	3	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
6	6	A Haunting in Venice	$2,052,000	-23.8%	2,290	-135	$896	$38,993,956	5	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
7	5	The Blind	$2,023,458	-36.9%	1,165	-149	$1,736	$13,973,400	3	Fathom Events
8	7	The Nun II	$1,615,000	-38%	2,128	-364	$758	$83,748,000	6	Warner Bros.
9	9	The Equalizer 3	$960,000	-46.7%	1,524	-2	$629	$90,567,493	7	Columbia Pictures
10	8	Dumb Money	$920,000	-56.7%	2,276	-561	$404	$12,626,141	5	Sony Pictures Entertainment (SPE)

11

10

Hocus Pocus 30th Anniversary re-release

$896,000

-44.3%

1,430

-

$626

$3,289,887

2

Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

23

-

The Mission

$29,893

-

8

-

$3,736

$29,893

1

Picturehouse Entertainment

25

-

Divinity

$6,003

-

1

-

$6,003

$6,003

1

Utopia

 

[Brocklock]

Exorcist had a decent hold. They probably should've kept the October 13th date in hindsight. Swift didn't do what was predicted as some went as high as a 200 million opening. Even I was thinking in the 125-150 million range. The pairing and Exorswift memes/opening on a Friday The 13th might've helped The Exorcist open higher than 26 million though. Saw X also had a really good hold, so it didn't effect the horror movies.

 

[Brocklock]

So Taylor's actual numbers were a bit under the estimates and it ended up with 92.8 million. Joker still has the October record, but all the prediction sites are saying Five Nights At Freddy's could open huge and has a shot. Joker 2 probably takes the record if it still comes out next October, and then I think The Batman II obliterates the record if it still comes out in October 2025.

 

[Gary]

1	1	Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour	$31,000,000	-66.6%	3,855	-	$8,041	$129,788,501	2	-
2	-	Killers of the Flower Moon	$23,000,000	-	3,628	-	$6,339	$23,000,000	1	Paramount Pictures
3	2	The Exorcist: Believer	$5,600,000	-49%	3,323	-361	$1,685	$54,201,950	3	Universal Pictures
4	3	PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	$4,450,000	-35.4%	3,364	-343	$1,322	$56,064,127	4	Paramount Pictures
5	-	The Nightmare Before Christmas 30th Anniversary Re-Release	$4,100,000	-	1,650	-	$2,484	$4,100,000	1	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
6	4	Saw X	$3,585,000	-36.9%	2,756	-302	$1,300	$47,234,877	4	Lions Gate Films
7	5	The Creator	$2,600,000	-40%	2,490	-470	$1,044	$36,759,287	4	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
8	7	A Haunting in Venice	$1,100,000	-43.5%	1,600	-690	$687	$40,908,593	6	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
9	6	The Blind	$1,010,559	-49%	1,059	-106	$954	$15,695,768	4	Fathom Events
10	8	The Nun II	$887,000	-45.3%	1,364	-764	$650	$85,308,071	7	Warner Bros.

20

The Persian Version

$87,372

-

9

-

$9,708

$87,372

1

Sony Pictures Classics

29

-

Another Body

$5,573

-

1

-

$5,573

$5,573

1

Utopia

31

-

Full Circle

$1,654

-

1

-

$1,654

$1,654

1

Abramorama

 

[HarleyQuinn]

1	1	Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour	$31,000,000	-66.6%	3,855	-	$8,041	$129,788,501	2	-
2	-	Killers of the Flower Moon	$23,000,000	-	3,628	-	$6,339	$23,000,000	1	Paramount Pictures
3	2	The Exorcist: Believer	$5,600,000	-49%	3,323	-361	$1,685	$54,201,950	3	Universal Pictures
4	3	PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	$4,450,000	-35.4%	3,364	-343	$1,322	$56,064,127	4	Paramount Pictures
5	-	The Nightmare Before Christmas 30th Anniversary Re-Release	$4,100,000	-	1,650	-	$2,484	$4,100,000	1	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
6	4	Saw X	$3,585,000	-36.9%	2,756	-302	$1,300	$47,234,877	4	Lions Gate Films
7	5	The Creator	$2,600,000	-40%	2,490	-470	$1,044	$36,759,287	4	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
8	7	A Haunting in Venice	$1,100,000	-43.5%	1,600	-690	$687	$40,908,593	6	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
9	6	The Blind	$1,010,559	-49%	1,059	-106	$954	$15,695,768	4	Fathom Events
10	8	The Nun II	$887,000	-45.3%	1,364	-764	$650	$85,308,071	7	Warner Bros.

20

The Persian Version

$87,372

-

9

-

$9,708

$87,372

1

Sony Pictures Classics

29

-

Another Body

$5,573

-

1

-

$5,573

$5,573

1

Utopia

31

-

Full Circle

$1,654

-

1

-

$1,654

$1,654

1

Abramorama

Better hold than I thought the Swift movie would have with KOTFM being released and not really having many weekday showings. Also impressive considering it's being done through AMC compared to most of the other movies showing at multiple theater businesses.

The Exorcist: Believer and Saw X both smartly take advantage of the October Horror season too. The former had a $30 Mill budget and already has topped $100 Million worldwide while Saw X had a $13 Million budget, has topped $74 Million worldwide, and has an outside shot at flirting with the $85 Million worldwide area.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

The Taylor Swift ERAS Tour concert film actually outdid the projections pulling in $33,209,039 over the weekend for a 64% drop and $131,997,540 domestic total.

 

[Gary]

1	-	Five Nights at Freddy's	$78,000,000	-	3,675	-	$21,224	$78,000,000	1	Universal Pictures International (UPI)
2	1	Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour	$14,700,000	-55.7%	3,773	-82	$3,896	$149,344,861	3	-
3	2	Killers of the Flower Moon	$9,000,000	-61.3%	3,628	-	$2,480	$40,679,083	2	Paramount Pictures
4	-	After Death	$5,060,815	-	2,645	-	$1,913	$5,060,815	1	Angel Studios
5	3	The Exorcist: Believer	$3,100,000	-45.6%	2,717	-606	$1,140	$59,365,830	4	Universal Pictures
6	4	PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	$2,150,000	-51.4%	2,746	-618	$782	$59,212,255	5	Paramount Pictures
7	-	Freelance	$2,060,000	-	2,057	-	$1,001	$2,060,000	1	Relativity Media
8	5	The Nightmare Before Christmas 30th Anniversary Re-Release	$2,000,000	-53.4%	2,185	+535	$915	$7,879,828	2	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
9	6	Saw X	$1,685,000	-53.3%	2,141	-615	$787	$50,296,927	5	Lions Gate Films
10	7	The Creator	$1,012,000	-62.3%	1,685	-805	$600	$38,857,081	5	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

14

-

The Holdovers

$200,000

-

6

-

$33,333

$200,000

1

Focus Features

17

-

Priscilla

$132,139

-

4

-

$33,034

$132,139

1

A24

26	-	Four Daughters	$5,398	-	1	-	$5,398	$5,398	1	Kino Lorber
27	-	Holy Frit	$2,011	-	1	-	$2,011	$2,011	1	Abramorama

Huge numbers for "Chuck E Cheese but evil and scary". "Priscilla" gets a wider release next week, and looks good. "The Marvels" is in two weeks, and while I have doubts it'll be a big hit, I'll admit to being wrong before.

 

[Brocklock]

Ouch for Flowers, but it's a weird release. Its budget is ridiculous at 200 million, but Apple seems to be into the movie more for the awards and the prestige of having one of the last movies from Martin Scorsese available in their library. They also make so much money they can afford to take the 200 million hit. It's still a theatrical flop regardless though, but I don't know if Apple cares that much.

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

It's only a flop/disappointment for Apple if it gets shut out at the Oscars. I don't think they give a heck about box office.

 

[Gary]

Ouch for Flowers, but it's a weird release. Its budget is ridiculous at 200 million, but Apple seems to be into the movie more for the awards and the prestige of having one of the last movies from Martin Scorsese available in their library. They also make so much money they can afford to take the 200 million hit. It's still a theatrical flop regardless though, but I don't know if Apple cares that much.

It’ll likely be a hit around awards season, and it’ll likely will be remembered more years from now than the FNAF movie. It’s also sadly, a reminder that movies like this are rarely hits nowadays, and I’m thinking something Ike “Oppenheimer” is going to be an exception.

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

Scorsese movies have never been huge commercial hits though with a few rare exceptions (The Wolf of Wall Street, The Departed, Cape Fear).

I wonder if Oppenheimer is as big of a hit if not for the Barbenheimer phenomenon and the fact that it came out during a mediocre summer movie season. That being said, Tenet aside, Christopher Nolan movies are an industry onto their own itself ala the MCU at this point. He could film Cillian Murphy doing armpit farts for two and a half hours and make $300 million.

 

[Brocklock]

Yeah Nolan is one of the only directors that is a genuine box office draw right now. I mean Tenet is his worst performing movie in a while, and it still made 365 million worldwide while coming out during August 2020 at the height of Covid.

I think Barbieheimer certainly helped Oppenheimer, but it still probably would've done pretty well without it. The audience has a trust in Nolan.

 

[Hawk 34]

Obviously it was going to be a huge success thanks to being a PG13 Halloween weekend release but Freddy was also available on the cock, so to draw that large a crowd when it’s available at home is a robust sign and also more proof that whoever in charge of Haunted Mansion was dunderheaded for releasing it mid summer.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

1	-	Five Nights at Freddy's	$78,000,000	-	3,675	-	$21,224	$78,000,000	1	Universal Pictures International (UPI)
2	1	Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour	$14,700,000	-55.7%	3,773	-82	$3,896	$149,344,861	3	-
3	2	Killers of the Flower Moon	$9,000,000	-61.3%	3,628	-	$2,480	$40,679,083	2	Paramount Pictures
4	-	After Death	$5,060,815	-	2,645	-	$1,913	$5,060,815	1	Angel Studios
5	3	The Exorcist: Believer	$3,100,000	-45.6%	2,717	-606	$1,140	$59,365,830	4	Universal Pictures
6	4	PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	$2,150,000	-51.4%	2,746	-618	$782	$59,212,255	5	Paramount Pictures
7	-	Freelance	$2,060,000	-	2,057	-	$1,001	$2,060,000	1	Relativity Media
8	5	The Nightmare Before Christmas 30th Anniversary Re-Release	$2,000,000	-53.4%	2,185	+535	$915	$7,879,828	2	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
9	6	Saw X	$1,685,000	-53.3%	2,141	-615	$787	$50,296,927	5	Lions Gate Films
10	7	The Creator	$1,012,000	-62.3%	1,685	-805	$600	$38,857,081	5	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

14

-

The Holdovers

$200,000

-

6

-

$33,333

$200,000

1

Focus Features

17

-

Priscilla

$132,139

-

4

-

$33,034

$132,139

1

A24

26	-	Four Daughters	$5,398	-	1	-	$5,398	$5,398	1	Kino Lorber
27	-	Holy Frit	$2,011	-	1	-	$2,011	$2,011	1	Abramorama

Huge numbers for "Chuck E Cheese but evil and scary". "Priscilla" gets a wider release next week, and looks good. "The Marvels" is in two weeks, and while I have doubts it'll be a big hit, I'll admit to being wrong before.

Final numbers were actually a bit higher for the top movies in a pleasant surprise... FNAT topped $80 Million. T-Swift topped $15.4 Million and is now over $150 Million domestically. KOTF disappointingly added only $300K to its numbers by comparison though.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for October 11, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of October 11, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1719019070782414912

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

They really should have just stuck that piece of crap on Paramount Plus. No one but no one was asking for a fourth Expendables.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

They really should have just stuck that piece of crap on Paramount Plus. No one but no one was asking for a fourth Expendables.

Even the International market, where movies like those (and Fast & Furious) really earn their keep so to speak, didn't care. It did $34.156 Million with a pretty dismal $21.3 Million in China.

For comparison, Expendables 3 did $170.138 Million internationally alone.

I actually think China moving to emphasize its own movies more & more has hurt the "growth" of most US releases in terms of their final success compared to years past. I personally think its great that China's focusing to promote and see more of their own home-grown movies by comparison so I think the days of studios being able to "lean" on China to boost a movie from 3X to 7X are over. Oppenheimer only opened to $21 Million and $61 Million total in China as of last weekend.

 

[Brocklock]

FNAF is a massive success because of how low the budget is, but the Friday number came in at a estimated 5.5 million, and the estimates are saying around 18 million for the weekend and a 78% drop. Not really a surprise considering the reviews, Halloween being over, and the movie not really connecting for a lot of non fans since there's so many references, Easter eggs, and lore.

But I think it might of done even better if Universal released it earlier in October. I think the simultaneous release on Peacock hurt it a tad. As the general audience that didn't play the games, but were intrigued by the premise could just stay home and watch it on Peacock instead of spending money at theaters. They probably should've of switched release dates with Universal's The Exorcist: Believer and gave Believer the duel theatrical/Peacock release. FNAF might of had better legs if released earlier.

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

I think there is more crossover between the FNAF audience and the Taylor Swift audience so bumping it up three weeks might have hurt it IMO.

 

[Brocklock]

I guess. I don't really see it. Taylor's biggest fanbase is gen z and millenial women. Young boys/young men aged 9 to 25 seem to be most into FNAF. Even bumping it up to the 20th would've helped it maybe have a better hold in Week 2. But, it's all semantics pretty much.

You also could've done a less successful Barbieharmer and tried to pair them together. I think both movies make money regardless. There's diehard fans for both though that are gonna see it regardless of the other and they could've always of done a double feature if they wanted to see both.

 

[Gary]

1	1	Five Nights at Freddy's	$19,399,640	-75.8%	3,789	+114	$5,119	$113,604,000	2	Universal Pictures International (UPI)
2	2	Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour	$13,500,000	-12.5%	3,604	-169	$3,745	$166,000,000	4	-
3	3	Killers of the Flower Moon	$7,000,478	-24.9%	3,786	+154	$1,849	$52,333,000	3	Paramount Pictures
4	20	Priscilla	$5,084,573	+3,747.9%	1,359	+1,355	$3,741	$5,310,093	2	A24
5	-	Radical	$2,730,326	-	419	-	$6,516	$2,730,326	1	Pantelion Films
6	5	The Exorcist: Believer	$2,150,330	-34.1%	2,429	-288	$885	$63,155,000	5	Universal Pictures
7	4	After Death	$2,000,256	-60.4%	2,730	+85	$732	$9,022,025	2	Angel Studios
8	6	PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	$1,975,151	-15.3%	2,404	-342	$821	$62,039,000	6	Paramount Pictures
9	-	What Happens Later	$1,564,026	-	1,492	-	$1,048	$1,564,026	1	Bleecker Street Media
10	8	Freelance	$1,248,685	-40.1%	2,057	-	$607	$4,203,981	2	Relativity Media
11	9	Saw X	$1,113,000	-36.9%	1,509	-632	$737	$52,464,169	6	Lions Gate Films
12	7	The Nightmare Before Christmas 30th Anniversary Re-Release	$889,000	-58.5%	1,625	-560	$547	$9,874,551	3	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
13	-	The Marsh King's Daughter	$849,120	-	1,055	-	$804	$849,120	1	Lions Gate Films

22

-

The Tunnel to Summer, the Exit of Goodbyes

$75,000

-

167

-

$449

$75,000

1

Sentai Filmworks

26	-	All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt	$12,529	-	3	-	$4,176	$12,529	1	A24
27	-	Subject	$7,500	-	2	-	$3,750	$7,500	1	Greenwich Entertainment
28	-	At the Gates	$5,186	-	1	-	$5,186	$5,186	1	Picturehouse

Seeing FNAF have such a big drop reminds me of when "Texas Chainsaw 3D" debuted at number 1 then fell hard. Also, while I'm sure FNAF is bad, I refuse to believe it can be as bad as that movie. "Saw X" and "Exorcist: Believer" are available on VOD (for $19.99 but still) and they are still making money, which once again proves horror is a profitable genre.

Next week is "The Marvels", though I think "The Holdovers" (which looks great) is getting a wider release as well.

 

[Brocklock]

FNAF has the biggest drop for a movie that opened over 50 million. I think the largest drops overall are the Friday The 13th remake and Halloween Ends which both had 80% drops. But, there might be something else. That Friday remake has actually grown on me over the years.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

FNAF has the biggest drop for a movie that opened over 50 million. I think the largest drops overall are the Friday The 13th remake and Halloween Ends which both had 80% drops. But, there might be something else. That Friday remake has actually grown on me over the years.

FNAF opened to $80 Million, which is a huge number for the type of property/movie it was too. The Friday the 13th remake opened at $40.57 Million, which is only the equivalent of $58.20 Million in 2023 which is solid but not the level of FNAF. Halloween Ends opened at $40.05 Million (equivalent to $42.07 Million in 2023).

While on the surface it looks bad... it opened to such a huge number that I think the drop was bigger than it otherwise would've been if it had opened at say $55 Million and 25% of that opening weekend audience went to see it on the 2nd weekend instead.

 

[Brocklock]

I'm not indicating it's bad, I was just pointing out a fact I read which seemed interesting.

In my other post, I pointed out that it was already a huge success in spite of the drop. But they probably left a little money on the table with the duel Peacock/theaters release. It might've opened to closer to 100 million if it opened a tad earlier and didn't have the simultaneous open. Exorcist: Believer showed decent legs throughout the month of October with even worse reviews, so Freddy probably would have as well.

 

[Brocklock]

Also, FNAF is the first horror movie to lead the box office the weekend after Halloween since The People Under The Stairs back in 1991. TPUTS is super underrated and holds up so well. It's probably my third favorite Wes Craven film after the first Elm Street and Scream.

 

[RedJed]

Good legs on Freddy. I hadn't had the chance to comment on the film itself yet, but I thought it was super fun and without knowing shit about the games, it was still easy to follow....but I could tell that there was a ton of inside comments, characters, easter eggs, that only the fanbase would eat up. Also, I saw this opening night and it may have been in a most wild, vocal, and hyped crowd I've ever experienced in a theater. Mofos were standing up and applauding the inclusion of certain characters and scenes, and I will never ever forget after the film ended, this maybe 12 year old kid screams out "FUCK THE CRITICS!!!" as he was leaving the theater. Ok then?!!

I've never heard of Radical....what is the hell is that one all about?!

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Sounds like The Marvels could end up doing $50-$65 Million. It did $6.6 Million in previews then $21.5 Million on Friday.

Downside is that The-Numbers has its budget at an astronomical $274.8 Million(!) so gonna be a struggle just to break even in the long run,

 

[Brocklock]

Don't believe Deadline if that's where you're reading the numbers from. They inflate a lot, or they go the opposite direction and intentionally lowball. I can't take them seriously after they were pushing a 40-50 million prediction the day before Five Nights At Freddy's came out when the box office tracking was showing it was on track for around 80 million. It finished at 78 million.

It's definitely not going as high as 65, but 50 might be possible. I see it finishing around 45-47 million unless Veteran's Day makes for a really small Friday to Saturday drop.

It also got a B on cinema score. Like I said earlier, I don't put much stock in those for franchises but it's still low for a Comic Book Movie. Other CBM's to get B's include:

Catwoman, Green Lantern, Batman vs Superman, Ghost Rider, Daredevil, The Eternals, Quantumania, Hellboy 2, Fantastic Four ( 2005), Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, The Flash, Elektra, Watchmen, and Batman Returns

Returns and Hellboy 2 are very good films. Watchmen I think I like at this point. The rest yeesh. Could have bad word of mouth and terrible box office legs.