The 2024 Box Office thread

[Gary]

1	-	The Marvels	$47,000,000	-	4,030	-	$11,662	$47,000,000	1	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
2	1	Five Nights at Freddy's	$9,000,000	-52.6%	3,694	-95	$2,436	$127,205,300	3	Universal Pictures International (UPI)
3	2	Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour	$5,900,000	-56.7%	2,848	-756	$2,071	$172,526,901	5	-
4	4	Priscilla	$4,792,678	-4.9%	2,361	+1,002	$2,029	$12,728,840	3	A24
5	3	Killers of the Flower Moon	$4,650,000	-32.3%	3,357	-429	$1,385	$59,937,384	4	Paramount Pictures
6	16	The Holdovers	$3,200,000	+463.4%	778	+714	$4,113	$4,274,260	3	Focus Features
7	-	Journey to Bethlehem	$2,425,000	-	2,002	-	$1,211	$2,425,000	1	Affirm Films
8	7	PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	$1,760,000	-13.2%	1,779	-625	$989	$64,564,318	7	Paramount Pictures
9	5	Radical	$1,752,000	-34.1%	534	+115	$3,280	$5,209,758	2	Pantelion Films
10	6	The Exorcist: Believer	$1,150,000	-45.4%	1,587	-842	$724	$64,994,335	6	Universal Pictures

13

-

It's a Wonderful Knife

$605,110

-

923

-

$655

$605,110

1

-

19

-

Dream Scenario

$215,552

-

6

-

$35,925

$215,552

1

A24

28

-

Orlando, My Political Biography

$7,500

-

1

-

$7,500

$7,500

1

Sideshow Releasing

Ouch for "The Marvels". Correct me if I'm wrong, this is the worst debut for a MCU movie. Good for "The Holdovers" though, and I'm hoping "Dream Scenario" gets a wider release (also, I'm glad Nic Cage is now back to doing more movies he clearly wants to be in)

 

[Brocklock]

It is. Also, depending on the budget (I've seen projections at 220, 250, and even 275 million), if it has disastrous box office legs, it might have a chance at knocking at the door of John Carter, The Flash, and Dial Of Destiny for biggest box office bomb ever. Word of mouth isn't great and most of the positive reviews just say it's "fun, breezy, and decent" which doesn't really excite people to get to the theaters.

The box office in general is in a weird place in 2023. It's not even just Marvel and superhero movie fatigue, but blockbusters in general. Barbieheimer, GOTG 3, Spider-Verse, Mario, and John Wick 4 seem to be outliers. The presales for the new Hunger Games aren't that great either and mixed reviews indicate that could be a disappointment next week as well. But, we'll see. I do think The Marvels might have a big drop next week because of the four new wide releases. It might not cross 100m domestic, which would make it the first MCU movie not to accomplish that.

The budgets for blockbusters have to come down at some point. Making every blockbuster cost between 200-350 million is a recipe for disaster. Since all these movies would have to come close to making 1 billion worldwide to break even.

 

[cobainwasmurdered]

Yeah I see it as more blockbuster fatigue than superhero specific considering superhero movies when they're good are still in the top draws. The issue is bad movies, bloated budgets, and over-extension.

 

[Brocklock]

I do think MCU fatigue is real for good projects even. It hasn't translated to movies yet because GOTG is respected. But, even that had worrying presales, before Marvel dropped the reviews a few weeks early which gave the audience trust in that it would be good. Then it had great legs after fans knew it was good. Loki season 2 is getting rave reviews, but the ratings are far below season 1 and down from the early Disney+ MCU shows. Ms. Marvel has the best rotten tomatoes score of any D+ MCU show and it was also the least watched show of them all.

Another thing I saw from a demographics breakdown that could be worrying, is that most of the people that went to see The Marvels were over 25. Maybe younger Gen Z and kids are more interested in video game movies these days, and that could be the next trend to take over while all the dads watch the MCU.

 

[Gary]

I do think MCU fatigue is real for good projects even. It hasn't translated to movies yet because GOTG is respected. But, even that had worrying presales, before Marvel dropped the reviews a few weeks early which gave the audience trust in that it would be good. Then it had great legs after fans knew it was good. Loki season 2 is getting rave reviews, but the ratings are far below season 1 and down from the early Disney+ MCU shows. Ms. Marvel has the best rotten tomatoes score of any D+ MCU show and it was also the least watched show of them all.

Another thing I saw from a demographics breakdown that could be worrying, is that most of the people that went to see The Marvels were over 25. Maybe younger Gen Z and kids are more interested in video game movies these days, and that could be the next trend to take over while all the dads watch the MCU.

I feel like "Guardians" is something of an outlier-it was one of the last vestiges of the old MCU, and as I've said before, even some people who don't like or who are tired of the MCU in general like them. The fact you don't have to do a lot of homework or watch a bunch of prior movies and shows also helps-they are largely self contained and weren't interested in being super connected to the MCU in general (I'd also argue that's one of the reasons the first "Black Panther" is better than the sequel-it was mostly a self contained story. The sequel introduced Riri Williams, who is/was supposed to get her own show, so to go "let's see how this connects to the larger MCU" hurts the proceedings)

That other audience isn't going to be excited for "The Marvels" or whatever. Plus, as you said, a movie like this doesn't need to be $250 million to make. To think, there was a time when $47 million was considered good to decent box office.

I do agree that it's looking like movies based on games might be the next thing going forward. "Mario" is one of the biggest hits of the year, FNAF made more than it's money back despite the rapid BO drop, and though it wasn't a big box office hit "Dungeons and Dragons" is the best reviewed live action game adaptation and if we're lucky, more people who actually like games but also know how to make a good movie will give them a shot.

 

[Brocklock]

I just want good video game movies for once. The first wave from the 90's until recent were really bad besides two I like (Mortal Kombat and Silent Hill) and a couple of guilty pleasures like Super Mario Bros., Street Fighter, and Doom.

This second wave isn't starting out too promising with Mario and FNAF imo being very disposable and bland, and not taking any risks. Like even these bad MCU movies, I will always remember for the weird bad shit like MODOK or the screaming goats from Thor 4. I liked Mario and it's a fine 6/10 movie, but I can't tell you a single thing that happened. FNAF I didn't like, but I still couldn't tell you anything that happened and I just watched that a few weeks ago. To me, that's worse than bad.

Hopefully, we get better video game movies, or this could be a dire time for blockbusters. They have to take hints from The Last Of Us tv series and make something good and mature.

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

I liked Mario and it's a fine 6/10 movie, but I can't tell you a single thing that happened.

Peachespeachespeachespeachespeachedpeaches PEACHES I LOVE YOU!

That and Fred Armisen as Bernie Sander as Cranky Kong were all that resonated with me.. Obviously, we're in the minority as that movie did gangbusters.

 

[Brocklock]

Oh yeah and the generic Zelda movie will make gangbusters too. I'm just thinking I'd prefer these weird, but bad MCU movies to bland Video game stuff. But, I always would rather watch a bad or awful movie over a mid or bland movie that makes no impression on me.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I saw The Marvels today and really liked it. I thought the plot made sense: the biggest knock on it is that kind of ignores Secret Invasion which, depending on your opinion on that, isn't necessarily a bad thing. I thought that there was an appropriate mix of serious and whimsical. Literally the only part of the whole movie I didn't like was Fury yelling "Black Girl Magic!" at Monica to get her to use her flight powers for the first time. I have to admit that I did cringe inwardly at that.

I thought the acting was good. I've never seen Zawe Ashton in anything else, so I don't have any frame of reference, but I thought that Dar-Benn's motives made sense. Had this movie been 20 minutes longer we probably would have gotten some more exposition about her character, but what they had worked for me. Everyone else was great, and the Khans stole the show. The confrontation between Carol and Monica that they've been teasing since WandaVision was resolved a little too neat, maybe, but I make allowances for time on that one, and also because I thought that the scene itself was still well done; I just wish that we had gotten more of it.

I thought the action was good. I particularly liked how the protagonists all being women with powers meant that they weren't all doing "lucha" style fighting, like Black Widow in the Avengers movies, to sort of justify how she was able to hang against more powerful opponents; those women were getting knocked around the same as male protagonists would have. I even liked the somewhat predictable training montage where all three protagonists learned to use their powers in sync.
.

I can't really comment on the effects: like I told you guys before, I only notice the effects if I'm not engaged by the movie, and I was engaged by this from start to finish. But I plan to see it again while it's still in theaters, so maybe I'll try to pay closer attention next time. Overall, I give it an 8.5/10. Not good enough to break into my Top 5, but it jumps ahead of Ragnarok to take my #9 spot. My only complaints, and they aren't even really complaints:

Spoiler

1. In the fanfiction version of this movie that I had written in my head, we would have learned that Carol and Maria got together when Carol returned to Earth to investigate the Snap, and that they would have remained a couple until Maria's death.
2. I would like to have seen more of the Jersey City crew.

 

[Brocklock]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1725903661962870827

Oh wow. This is ridiculous. Like I wonder if it tops the 80% from Friday The 13th 2009 or Halloween Ends. Those hold the record for biggest second week drop for a movie in over 3000 theaters. Gigli and Replicas (Bad Keanu sci fi movie from the late 2010's) have a 81% drop with 2000 theaters or more. Come on The Marvels!

Eli Roth's Thanksgiving is tracking to finish higher which is awesome lol. Just surreal to see a slasher movie from the director of Hostel and Cabin Fever beat the second week of an MCU movie.

 

[Hawk 34]

You mean the movie starring Dr. McDreamy and YOUR 2023 Most Beautiful Man Alive?

MCU could have had all the original Avengers back, they didn’t stand a chance there.

 

[Brocklock]

I bet it might actually have a higher female turnout than The Marvels, since tiktok star Addison Rae is in it and has a big female following.

 

[Hawk 34]

Brother, I think she has a big male following too if you UNDERSTAND MY INNUENDO.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Thanksgiving is projected to do the same as The Marvels in 800 fewer theaters while The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes is looking at another middling $44 Million opening weekend. It helps that it only has a $100 Million budget but yet again another pretty bleh opening for a movie that was probably expected/hoped to be making around $60-$70 Million minimum opening weekend.

Killers of the Flower Moon continues to quietly bomb (despite the critical/audience acclaim & Scorcese defenders) currently sitting at just $63.5 Million domestically. Again, this had a $200 Million budget and more marketing than many of the other "flops" that are talked about. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie has made more domestically than this movie!

 

[Brocklock]

I'm interested in seeing the actuals. Thanksgiving could edge out The Marvels. If The Marvels doesn't dip too much in the actuals, it will have a 78% drop which is not the prestigious 80% held by Friday The 13th 2009 and Halloween Ends. But it does match the worst second week drop for a superhero film with the classic Shaq film Steel lol.

 

[Gary]

1	-	The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes	$44,000,000	-	3,776	-	$11,652	$44,000,000	1	Lions Gate Films
2	-	Trolls Band Together	$30,600,000	-	3,870	-	$7,906	$31,770,000	1	Universal Pictures
3	1	The Marvels	$10,200,000	-77.9%	4,030	-	$2,531	$65,024,806	2	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
4	-	Thanksgiving	$10,200,000	-	3,204	-	$3,183	$10,200,000	1	TriStar Pictures
5	2	Five Nights at Freddy's	$3,500,000	-61.1%	2,829	-865	$1,237	$132,611,720	4	Universal Pictures International (UPI)
6	6	The Holdovers	$2,700,000	-16.2%	1,478	+700	$1,826	$8,357,480	4	Focus Features
7	-	Next Goal Wins	$2,500,000	-	2,240	-	$1,116	$2,500,000	1	Searchlight Pictures
8	3	Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour	$2,400,000	-60.6%	1,573	-1,275	$1,525	$175,313,432	6	-
9	4	Priscilla	$2,326,380	-49.4%	1,802	-559	$1,290	$16,982,259	4	A24
10	5	Killers of the Flower Moon	$1,920,000	-58.1%	1,714	-1,643	$1,120	$63,570,032	5	Paramount Pictures

13

-

Saltburn

$315,492

-

7

-

$45,070

$315,492

1

Warner Bros.

20

-

Fallen Leaves

$50,672

-

2

-

$25,336

$50,672

1

MUBI

25

-

The Disappearance of Shere Hite

$17,000

-

2

-

$8,500

$17,000

1

N/A

 

[Brocklock]

Didn't realize Next Goal Wins is Disney also. Fox Searchlight is owned by them. So, double ouch. Lowest opening for a Disney film since Teacher's Pet in 2004.

Taika Waititi might need to reevaluate. I haven't seen them, but I heard Our Flag Means Death and Reservation Dogs are great and he could still provide quality in television. But, since Ragnarok, he's fallen off hard for me with his movies. Didn't care for Jojo Rabbit, which is really divisive as some love it. Didn't like Love And Thunder at all, as it felt like 4 movies smashed together with completely different tones. And, this doesn't seem good although I will watch for Michael Fassbender.

He's got a lot of projects coming up. He announced he's not working on Thor 5, but he has a Star Wars movie, an adaptation of Time Bandits, that Akira movie that's been in development for 25 years, and the aforementioned two television shows. I remember seeing him in interviews a few years ago and his hair had some salt and pepper going on, but now he's completely grey and looks 10-15 years older than he is. Maybe it's time to take a little break.

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

Budget is fairly low for Next Goal Wins so its probably just a little blip. I think The Holdovers probably took a lot of its "heartwarming, scruffy indie" counter programming (or I guess faux indie in NGW's case) audience.

I'm curious to see what Napoleon does. Ridley Scott does have the Gladiator sequel in his back pocket if it's another Last Duel situation at least.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Our Flag and Res Dogs are indeed great, so def check them out. Although I believe Taika doesn't really have that much to do with Res Dogs outside of the initial development.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

:: sighs ::

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

Our Flag and Res Dogs are indeed great, so def check them out. Although I believe Taika doesn't really have that much to do with Res Dogs outside of the initial development.

It sounds like he mostly used his show biz clout to help get the show green lit and left most of the creative process to the Indigenous American cast and crew.

 

[Brocklock]

Actuals came out today and Thanksgiving ended up grossing more than The Marvels by around $200,000.

 

[909]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1726680579679420459

Disney puts out a bomb after years of everyone saying they are heavy handed in controlling the story of these movies. For years they have weaponized their fanboys to go after people who don’t like the movies and claim those people are misogynists and racist. Some of them are but certainly not everyone. In the aftermath of said bomb they decide to flip the script and throw the black female director all the way under the bus. Don’t forget that shit. These huge corporations love to use that language to criticize people for not giving them money but look at how fast they’ll act that way themselves. It’s barely been a week!

The movie is perfectly fine but it’s not a movie that should make 500 million dollars. And then because of that they get really nasty about it.

 

[Brocklock]

The budget for Wish is 200 million. Is Disney doing some kind of money laundering scheme or something? The budgets are ridiculous.

The only movie to have a modest budget from Disney this year is The Creator which cost 80 million, but sadly still bombed. Still, it looked way better than Quantumania, Dial Of Destiny, or The Marvels.

 

[Brocklock]

Yeah, Wish isn't doing very well. Warning long post about Disney coming below.

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/...he-ballad-of-songbirds-and-snakes-1235807997/

Disney has really had its worst year since maybe the 00's. Guardians 3 was a hit, and Elemental ended up having good word of mouth and managed to break even. But other than those, The Marvels and Dial Of Destiny are among the biggest bombs ever. The Haunted Mansion was a really big bomb in its own right. Wish looks to join them unless it legs out during the holidays. Quantumania, A Haunting in Venice, and Little Mermaid all lost money and failed to break even. Even smaller fare like The Creator bombed and Next Goal Wins looks to be a minor bomb. Critical reception besides Guardian 3, A Haunting In Venice, and Elemental were all mixed to bad as well.

All their divisions are in shambles. The well has been dry for the live action remakes and people seem to be getting tired of them. That upcoming Mustafa movie is going to be a big bomb unless they change the release date. It's opening the same day as Sonic 3. Snow White seems like a humongous disaster in the making. Whoever thought casting Gal Gadot as the Wicked Queen in a Snow White musical was a good idea, has to be let go,.

Star Wars has suffered from over saturation and too many shows. Even the well received shows like Andor had low viewer ratings compared to other shows. The movies seem to be in flux as well and I can't see this upcoming Rey movie being a success with how people reacted to the sequel trilogy. MCU does have Deadpool 3 to look forward to, but it's just struggling lately. The ratings for shows like Secret Invasion and LoKi season 2 are down from the earlier MCU shows. Interest seems the lowest for superhero films in general since 2012 when The Avengers came out.

The animation divisions are going through problems as well. Wish flopping is surprising. It was billed as the 100 year celebration of Disney. The animation looks cheap and uninspiring, and fans don't seem to like the songs. Elemental really struggling out the gate despite the strong reviews was a shock, but once again it ended up doing good enough. Inside Out 2 should be a hit next year, but who knows how long they can run the sequel well dry. Bob Iger announced a Frozen 4, before Frozen 3 even finished. And, they announced a Toy Story 5 which is a series that should've been a trilogy only.

Need some changes at Disney in the upper management of all their divisions, but it won't happen.

 

[Fall of Epic]

Little Mermaid was a bomb? Sure, it wasn't a massive hit but it still made over $500M on a $300M budget.

 

[909]

Little Mermaid was a bomb? Sure, it wasn't a massive hit but it still made over $500M on a $300M budget.

That's usually a loss nearing or worse than 9 figures. Rule of thumb is a movie must make 2.5x its budget to break even. Theater chains take a lot of money off the top.

 

[Brocklock]

If, Little Mermaid had a budget of 100-150 million, it would've broke even. But, these budgets are just ballooning. 500 million wouldn't normally be a bomb, but if your movie has a budget of 300 million, it would have to make close to a billion to break even. Disney needs to downgrade their budgets big time. No reason Wish should have a 200 million dollar budget, when most animated movies of recent years look better with a significantly smaller budget. I like that the announced Blade has a budget of 100 million. Hopefully, they continue in that direction.

Disney really needs to find some new IP's to produce. Going on nostalgia only goes so far, and the younger generations don't really have that same nostalgia that Gen X and Millenials share. They care more about youtubers, anime, memes, tiktok personalities, twitch streamers, and video games than Superheroes, Indiana Jones, and Star Wars. I imagine, they try to bring RDJ, Chris Evans, ScarJo back to the MCU. But, that can only work for so long, and who knows if the actors accept. RDJ seems done with Tony Stark and, has talked about how doing Oppenheimer has made him remember to act again. He might start taking more prestige work. ScarJo sued Disney a year ago and doesn't sound like she wants to return. Chris Evans might return, and that could possibly save Captain America 4, but is he enough to save things? If the movie is not good, he's not enough and it could still flop. Cap is a draw, but not a Batman, Spider-Man, Iron Man, Guardians, or Deadpool level draw. He's more on the level of Superman, Aquaman, and Wonder Woman. I'm tempted to put X-Men in tier 2 because while some of their movies did great, they didn't make as much as Spider-Man, Batman, or a lot of the MCU before 2020. I'll wait to see how the MCU version of X-Men and classic Wolverine in Deadpool 3 turn out, to make my decision though.

Same thing with all the sequels for the Disney animated films, remaking every classic animation films into live action, and making shows for every Star Wars characters. They've also run out of legacy Star Wars characters they can use. The best course is to try to take Star Wars in a completely new direction and story, but they won't do that. They are just overexposing themselves at the rate that Guitar Hero/Rock Band games were overexposed 15 years ago.

It worked for a while, and 2019 is one of the most impressive box office years for a major studio ever. Disney had 7 out of the top 10 films in domestic gross, and all seven of those films grossed a billion worldwide. Just incredible and the theater boom that was happening until Covid was really exciting. But, that was four years ago, and Disney just seems lame and tired at the moment. It'll be interesting to see how they pivot and try to bounce back. It's hard to count them out, and they always seem to figure it out, but all the people running things seem clueless at the moment. I do think the two factors that hurt them the most were Covid and Disney+. One wasn't their fault, but Disney+ seems to be hemorrhaging money while watering down both Star Wars and The MCU with the excessive and constant shows. The day and date releases on Disney+ hurt some of their animated films as well. I'd be surprised if it's still around in 3 years.

Disney's mistakes from the Disney Plus launch of November 2019 til currently are fascinating to me, and I will continue to make long winded posts about it.

 

[Gary]

I'm tempted to put X-Men in tier 2 because while some of their movies did great, they didn't make as much as Spider-Man, Batman, or a lot of the MCU before 2020.

I think it's worth pointing out that the "X-Men" franchise had a spotty record as far as quality is concerned. For every "X2", "First Class" and "Logan", there's also an "X3", "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" and "Dark Phoenix". Hell, the last entry ("New Mutants") was dumped into theaters during the pandemic and was victim to reshoots. Plus, there's a lot of people saying "maybe the MCU can save them" but how are we to know if they don't fuck it all up.

 

[Brocklock]

https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/183puxn

Wow, the presales for Aquaman 2 is a full million lower than Wonka, and lower than The Color Purple. Even the horny Momoa women that helped the first make a billion didn't show up for this one. The superhero genre has lost the horny women fanbase and the horny men fanbase are just hanging on by a thread. Especially after desexifying Sydney Sweeney and Dakota Johnson in the Madame Web trailer.

Also, I remember seeing chatter in r/boxoffice about how a Beyonce movie could do similar numbers to Taylor Swift. I just said