The 2024 Box Office thread

[Gary]

Yeah Ridley Scott is a hack who makes fun movies so I don’t like seeing these two names be compared. His brother was a far more interesting filmmaker for better or worse.

Eh I'd say "hack" is a bit far. I'd argue people like Zack Snyder and the Russo brothers (have you seen the non sitcom and post Marvel movies they've done?) are more fitting. Plus, I'm admittedly biased as "Blade Runner" is one of my all time fave movies.

 

[Fall of Epic]

Tony Scott made some fun action movies but Alien and Gladiator are both better than anything he did (except for True Romance).

 

[Gary]

Back to box office discussion

No Disney Movie Will Cross $1 Billion At The Box Office This Year – And That's Bad News - SlashFilm

Disney was once able to claim multiple billion-dollar movies, but this year, their output has come up short at the box office.

www.slashfilm.com

I think it's worth pointing out that in 2019, Disney had seven movies that made over a billion worldwide.

 

[Brocklock]

They have two shots to cross a billion next year. Deadpool 3 and Inside Out 2. We'll see if those can do it, but they have a good chance imo.

 

[909]

If Deadpool doesn’t cross the franchise is done. They would never risk spending that much money on this franchise again unless that one provides a huge return on investment.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Back to box office discussion

No Disney Movie Will Cross $1 Billion At The Box Office This Year – And That's Bad News - SlashFilm

Disney was once able to claim multiple billion-dollar movies, but this year, their output has come up short at the box office.

www.slashfilm.com

I think it's worth pointing out that in 2019, Disney had seven movies that made over a billion worldwide.

Again, I think a lot of is the hit of the China market in those totals... 5 of the top-grossing movies worldwide made an insane $150+ Million in China alone.

2019
Avengers: Endgame made $632.1 MILLION in China
The Lion King made $122.44 Million
Frozen II made $122.31 Million
Spider-Man: Far From Home made $198.99 Million
Captain Marvel made $154.07 Million
Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker made only $20.54 Million and made almost equal Domestic vs. International overall
Toy Story 4 made $29.1 Million but was massive in Japan ($93 Million), Mexico ($71 Million), and UK ($82 Million)

Barbie was solid most everywhere but went insane in the UK ($119.1 Million), which really helped push it up. The Super Mario Bros movie made $101 Million in Japan and $85 Million in Mexico, which helped push it up over $1 Billion worldwide. The Little Mermaid did nothing in China and barely did anything in Japan or Mexico ($20-$23 Million) which really suppressed the totals.

Even Avatar: The Way of Water did $245 Million in China alone. Top Gun: Maverick did $100+ Million in Japan and the UK.

If you're a movie aiming for $1 Billion+ worldwide you need at least $100 Million from China. If you don't get that and you only get $15-$25 Million like most of these recent movies have gotten, you have to get $70-$80+ Million in multiple other markets just to have a chance.

The Battle at Lake Changjin in 2021 made $899.4 MILLION in China alone. Detective Chinatown 3 made $685 Million in China as a domestic movie. There is a huge market there and it plays a big impact on a movie's worldwide grosses, whether they want to admit it or not. For perspective: Spider-Man: No Way Home made $804 Million in the US and Barbie made $636 Million in the US.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Only One 2023 Movie with a Budget Over $200 Million Has Made a Profit (So Far) This Year

As "Wish" and "Napoleon" join the $200 Million Club, we examine the increasingly slippery slope of making money on very big-budget movies.

www.indiewire.com

So... why isn't this the more common framing?

 

[cobainwasmurdered]

Of all 14 titles, seven are from Disney, nine are sequels or remakes, and five are MCU or DC Comics.

We have talked about all of these factors as well as the bloated budgets consistently. Everyone has. No one is ignoring that this is happening to more than Just Disney or Capeshit.

 

[909]

Only One 2023 Movie with a Budget Over $200 Million Has Made a Profit (So Far) This Year

As "Wish" and "Napoleon" join the $200 Million Club, we examine the increasingly slippery slope of making money on very big-budget movies.

www.indiewire.com

So... why isn't this the more common framing?

There's a couple reasons why.

Disney: 6 bombs
Apple: 2 bombs (Sony did not spend money on Napoleon)
Paramount: 2 bombs (they distributed the third one and did not spend money to produce it)
Universal: 1 bomb
WB: 1 bomb

Napoleon and Killers of the Flower Moon are Apple's bombs. I think people are also more willing to forgive Mission Impossible for being a bomb because it's really damn good.

Now in the big picture Paramount is widely considered to be floundering and may be sold. But the overall point is that Disney is the bulwark for the entire industry, and once Disney pictures stop making money, the film industry is going to run into an existential crisis. It doesn't matter when companies like Apple and Amazon make movies that don't make money. The money they spend on these movies is coming out of their grossly inflated profit margin from selling other products. When film companies can't make money from films, when they're tossing a billion into the toilet every year, this is going to be an extremely big problem.


The other, potentially bigger issue, and unfortunately it's also pernicious and disgusting but I have to bring it up, is that maybe right wingers boycotting Disney is actually working.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

We have talked about all of these factors as well as the bloated budgets consistently. Everyone has. No one is ignoring that this is happening to more than Just Disney or Capeshit.

I absolutely challenge the notion that "no one" is ignoring it. I'll stipulate that perhaps no one on CXF is ignoring it; if "no one" was ignoring it, then the articles that get all the clicks wouldn't be the ones that basically read like anti-Disney hit jobs. Variety in particular seems to be doing the most to shit all over Disney for something that is definitely not a Disney-exclusive problem.

 

[Gary]

I absolutely challenge the notion that "no one" is ignoring it. I'll stipulate that perhaps no one on CXF is ignoring it; if "no one" was ignoring it, then the articles that get all the clicks wouldn't be the ones that basically read like anti-Disney hit jobs. Variety in particular seems to be doing the most to shit all over Disney for something that is definitely not a Disney-exclusive problem.

Oh no, not the poor corporation!

 

[HarleyQuinn]

I absolutely challenge the notion that "no one" is ignoring it. I'll stipulate that perhaps no one on CXF is ignoring it; if "no one" was ignoring it, then the articles that get all the clicks wouldn't be the ones that basically read like anti-Disney hit jobs. Variety in particular seems to be doing the most to shit all over Disney for something that is definitely not a Disney-exclusive problem.

It's pretty simple...

#1: As you said, clickbait articles. Are you going to click on an article covering how The Marvels is the latest big $$ flop or an article covering how Napoleon or Killers of the Flower Moon are gigantic flops? Most people would probably click the former because Disney is a much more well-known corporation and people like seeing: X is knocked off the pedestal after it was built up (just look at sports players/actors/etc.). Last I checked, The Flash wasn't Disney, and that got a ton of clickbait articles about how bad it was, its flopping in the box office, etc. It was, pardon the pun, almost a running joke after a while.

#2: Superhero movies were 'reliably' the Billion $ busters outside of your animation movies like Frozen, etc. Sometimes you'd get a surprise hit such as a Barbie or Top Gun: Maverick but those are generally 1-2 "other" movies a year at most if that. Now it's tougher to just pencil in a name title and expect BILLION with raining dollar bills. Stuff like Deadpool 3 and Joker 2 is expected to do boffo numbers but all it takes is a high budget + "very good" and you get a No Time To Die or The Batman where both films did over $700 Million worldwide... but they weren't $1 Billion+ movies.

 

[909]

https://collider.com/bob-iger-the-marvels-box-office/

THIS is why people are shitting on Disney. Productions don't need executives sitting there product testing a fucking movie.

 

[Incandenza]

In addition to the context surrounding the production of The Marvels, Iger also mentioned that the volume of content created by Marvel Studios over the past couple of years has made it difficult to maintain quality. Considering how the company released several films and television series in the span of two years, the statement references how Disney is looking to produce less content in the future. Nevertheless, the sequel currently playing in theaters sent its three main heroes on a very dangerous adventure. One that included visiting a planet where singing is the only form of communication.

The part bolded here has nothing to do with all the words written before it. No one has copy editors anymore.

 

[Mickey Massuco]

I don’t want to sound like a hater though I probably will, but I’m glad all this big budget and superhero trash is tanking.

Bring back the small picture with a big voice.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

It's pretty simple...

#1: As you said, clickbait articles. Are you going to click on an article covering how The Marvels is the latest big $$ flop or an article covering how Napoleon or Killers of the Flower Moon are gigantic flops? Most people would probably click the former because Disney is a much more well-known corporation and people like seeing: X is knocked off the pedestal after it was built up (just look at sports players/actors/etc.). Last I checked, The Flash wasn't Disney, and that got a ton of clickbait articles about how bad it was, its flopping in the box office, etc. It was, pardon the pun, almost a running joke after a while.

#2: Superhero movies were 'reliably' the Billion $ busters outside of your animation movies like Frozen, etc. Sometimes you'd get a surprise hit such as a Barbie or Top Gun: Maverick but those are generally 1-2 "other" movies a year at most if that. Now it's tougher to just pencil in a name title and expect BILLION with raining dollar bills. Stuff like Deadpool 3 and Joker 2 is expected to do boffo numbers but all it takes is a high budget + "very good" and you get a No Time To Die or The Batman where both films did over $700 Million worldwide... but they weren't $1 Billion+ movies.

1. I'm not going to click on either one of them: I find box office talk to only be useful for affirming what you've already made up your mind to believe. If I like these Marvel movies (and, with the exception of Quantumania, I guess, I have), clicking on an article about how much they suck is only going to be an exercise in masochism/recreational outrage on my part. And I can't really talk about these prestige films because I haven't seen them, I don't want to see them and I'm not going to see them, so the articles about them only have any value to me insofar as comparing and contrasting how these media outlets cover their commercial success (or lack thereof) with the MCU movies. As far as the sports comparison, and how people like seeing X get 'knocked off the pedestal,' that's part of why I got out of the rooting-for-teams business: wanting to see athletes/actors be humbled/put in their place/knocked off their pedestal has never been something that I've been about.
2. 'Reliably'? Outside of one outlier year, how many of these movies actually returned a billion at the box office? It's certainly fair to call a movie a flop if it doesn't even make back its budget, but anybody who thought it was reasonable to expect Marvel to keep hitting homeruns every time at bat is fucked in the head. Between Phase 4 and Phase 5, Love and Thunder and Quantumania were the only legitimate outs, no matter what the box office says. Eight out of ten movies have been, at worst, base hits, which hardly seems like a reason for doom-casting to me.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

1. 'Reliably'? Outside of one outlier year, how many of these movies actually returned a billion at the box office? It's certainly fair to call a movie a flop if it doesn't even make back its budget, but anybody who thought it was reasonable to expect Marvel to keep hitting homeruns every time at bat is fucked in the head. Between Phase 4 and Phase 5, Love and Thunder and Quantumania were the only legitimate outs, no matter what the box office says. Eight out of ten movies have been, at worst, base hits, which hardly seems like a reason for doom-casting to me.

To me, I said "reliably" because that's been the case. That doesn't mean every superhero movie was going to do Billion+ but more likely than not, there was a reasonable expectation (depending on the title/critical response) that most superhero movies - primarily MCU I'll grant you - would at least get close to $1 Billion if not top it. When I say close I also meant $700-$800 Million numbers.

There've been 50 movies that have hit $1 Billion worldwide, here the superhero movies are in release date order then box office low to high if they share the same year. I don't believe these are adjusted for inflation either. There are 14 with TDK just barely missing.

Just Missed 2008: The Dark Knight made $998.725 Million. This was one of the first superhero movies to make people think $1 Billion wasn't out of reach for the genre. Worth noting this was just 8 years after X-Men was released to just under $300 Million worldwide and 5 years after X2 topped $400 Million worldwide.
2012: The Dark Knight Rises
2012: The Avengers
2013: Iron Man 3
2015: Avengers: Age of Ultron
2016: Captain America: Civil War
2018: Aquaman
2018: Incredibles 2
2018: Black Panther
2018: Avengers: Infinity War
2019: Joker
2019: Captain Marvel
2019: Spider-Man: Far From Home
2019: Avengers: Endgame
2021: Spider-Man: No Way Home

Other notable numbers: Doctor Strange in the Multi-Verse of Madness made $952 Million; 2007's Spider-Man 3 made almost $900 Million (about $5 Million short); Spider-Man: Homecoming & Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice & Venom all made between $850-$870 Millon. Those are relatively huge numbers.

Of the 99 movies to ever gross over $800 Million worldwide, just 5 were released before 2001. I don't think it's far-fetched to say that the success of the "prime" MCU and Pixar's emergence changed the landscape of what a movie really could accomplish. Then you throw in IP (Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Star Wars) and Disney in general... expectations rightly? skyrocketed to what could be.

I don't think there should be doom casting/pessimism at superhero movies but it's a fact that if they are being thrown out at $200-$250 Million a pop and see 2-4 different properties released throughout a year... there is either going to be fatigue or they have to hit home runs. Getting singles and doubles isn't going to cut it when you've had Deadpool and 2012's The Amazing Spider-Man making over $750 Million worldwide. Even 2016's Suicide Squad made $745.7 MILLION and most critics/audiences didn't like that movie! You see numbers like that and you reasonably think to yourself, "Yeah, maybe Morbius isn't great but it could still make $400 Million," or you look at Quantumania and go, "The sequel made over $600 Million. This is the 3rd, we have this big budget used for it. I can't foresee it making under $550 Million in a worst-case scenario."

 

[Gary]

1	-	Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé	$21,000,000	-	2,539	-	$8,270	$21,000,000	1	-
2	1	The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes	$14,500,000	-50.1%	3,691	-85	$3,928	$121,243,408	3	Lions Gate Films
3	-	Godzilla Minus One	$11,031,954	-	2,308	-	$4,779	$11,031,954	1	-
4	4	Trolls Band Together	$7,600,000	-57.3%	3,613	-280	$2,103	$74,833,055	3	Universal Pictures
5	3	Wish	$7,412,000	-62.4%	3,900	-	$1,900	$41,955,942	2	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
6	2	Napoleon	$7,125,000	-65.5%	3,500	-	$2,035	$45,740,243	2	Columbia Pictures
7	-	Animal	$6,140,000	-	700	-	$8,771	$6,140,000	1	N/A
8	-	The Shift	$4,358,377	-	2,450	-	$1,778	$4,358,377	1	Angel Studios
9	-	Silent Night	$3,000,000	-	1,870	-	$1,604	$3,000,000	1	Lions Gate Films
10	5	Thanksgiving	$2,630,000	-62.8%	2,506	-698	$1,049	$28,377,633	3	TriStar Pictures
11	6	The Marvels	$2,509,000	-60.3%	2,200	-870	$1,140	$80,735,186	4	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
12	16	Dream Scenario	$1,689,446	+164.2%	1,578	+1,454	$1,070	$3,470,330	4	A24
13	9	Saltburn	$1,568,244	-15.7%	1,566	-	$1,001	$6,235,130	3	Warner Bros.
14	7	The Holdovers	$1,150,000	-58.9%	1,311	-290	$877	$15,074,285	6	Focus Features

22

-

Eileen

$90,521

-

6

-

$15,086

$90,521

1

-

24

-

The Sweet East

$30,010

-

1

-

$30,010

$30,010

1

Utopia

30

-

Pianoforte

$5,500

-

1

-

$5,500

$5,500

1

Greenwich Entertainment

Ouch for "Napoleon" and good to see "Thanksgiving" still hanging in there. Also good for Nic Cage.

 

[Brocklock]

Yeah, Napoleon is definitely a flop. I see people go back and forth about Killers Of The Flower Moon and while it's technically a flop, I don't think Apple cares about the money it has lost when it eventually gets 9 or 10 oscar noms. Napoleon, I can't see getting any nominations besides a couple minor ones like sound or set design. And, audiences seem down on it. Score another one for Midley Scott.

Also, yikes at Wish. It might struggle to make 65-70 million domestically. Just crazy for the big 100th anniversary of Disney and it being a Disney Princess Film.

 

[Gary]

Yeah, Napoleon is definitely a flop. I see people go back and forth about Killers Of The Flower Moon and while it's technically a flop, I don't think Apple cares about the money it has lost when it eventually gets 9 or 10 oscar noms. Napoleon, I can't see getting any nominations besides a couple minor ones like sound or set design. And, audiences seem down on it. Score another one for Midley Scott.

Also, yikes at Wish. It might struggle to make 65-70 million domestically. Just crazy for the big 100th anniversary of Disney and it being a Disney Princess Film.

I don't think anyone really expected "Killers" to be a big hit anyway, whereas there was probably more hope for "Napoleon" since the studio probably thought "well, Oppenheimer was a hit so maybe this has a chance". Plus, Scott is has always been hit and miss as far as box office is concerned

"The Marvels" being out of the top 10 has gotta hurt.

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

I've said this the entire time RE: KotFM. Box office gross is incidental for Apple as long as it gets critical acclaim and picks up a butt load of Oscar nominations (and hopefully wins).

 

[Brocklock]

Oh yeah they don't care. I'm just saying for Napoleon they probably do since it also cost around 200 million. And, it's not going to have the Oscar boost that KOTFM is going to get.

And the box office for KOTFM kind of shows that Leonardo DiCaprio is still a draw. With most other actors starring, this movie probably does similar to Silence and grosses under 10 million domestically. But, Leo (And De Niro to a lesser extent) got it to around 66 million. It's not that impressive, but these type of movies usually do really low numbers, so Leo getting it to nearly 70 million domestic is a minor achievement.

 

[Gary]

Two things I wanna point out about "Godzilla: Minus One"

1.) the last time a Japanese Godzilla movie got a big release like this ("Godzilla 2000") barely made it to the top 10 when it debuted, and 2.) it cost $15 million. Granted, movies from Japan don't cost as much as ours do, but that's still impressive and puts a lot of modern blockbusters to shame.

 

[Cackling Co Pilot Kamala]

Oh yeah they don't care. I'm just saying for Napoleon they probably do since it also cost around 200 million. And, it's not going to have the Oscar boost that KOTFM is going to get.

I'm sure it's disappointing for them. I'm guessing they were hoping they'd get one of Ridley Scott's good ones. I could see this being one of those movies that does randomly well on streaming if that's any consolation.

 

[Brocklock]

On a more positive note, Hunger Games is having great staying power and holding well. I't could leg out to 160-170 million.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

Looks like the Taylor Swift: ERAS Tour is gonna finish around $178.83 Million, which has to be a massive success for AMC Theaters (and Taylor Swift) in proving they could go around the studios. It's done $249.5 Million worldwide(!)

Curious how Beyonce's will do in its 2nd and 3rd weekends as we near the Christmas season. If it can even get to around $100 Million by the end of its run, that will be another big success for AMC Theaters and could influence some of the smaller Indies that get bigger word of mouth in doing their own deals with specific theater chains.

 

[Brocklock]

Beyonce's opening was pretty great all things considered. I didn't expect Swift numbers, but a 20 million plus opening for a concert film is great. And, it's a lot more experimental and less straightforward than Taylor's film.

Taylor's an extraordinary success, but I still laugh at the Swifties that invaded r/boxoffice and were predicting it to open to 200 million and finish with 2 or even 3 billion worldwide.

 

[Hawk 34]

Looks like the Taylor Swift: ERAS Tour is gonna finish around $178.83 Million, which has to be a massive success for AMC Theaters (and Taylor Swift) in proving they could go around the studios. It's done $249.5 Million worldwide(!)

Curious how Beyonce's will do in its 2nd and 3rd weekends as we near the Christmas season. If it can even get to around $100 Million by the end of its run, that will be another big success for AMC Theaters and could influence some of the smaller Indies that get bigger word of mouth in doing their own deals with specific theater chains.

I’m not sure why you keep saying AMC theaters. It wasn’t an exclusive deal with AMC theaters.

 

[HarleyQuinn]

I’m not sure why you keep saying AMC theaters. It wasn’t an exclusive deal with AMC theaters.

Good catch. I keep seeing AMC Theaters Distribution and making that association.

 

[Brocklock]

Something pretty wild could happen this weekend, as the top two films may be Japanese films as Godzilla: Minus One and The new Miyazaki movie The Boy And The Heron battle it out.

Really amazing and cool to see.